1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: With supply-demand being loose and costs rising, the price center of soybean meal moves upward. Despite a slowdown in Brazilian shipments and cost increases due to rising crude oil prices, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Although there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction for Malaysian palm oil in March and support from crude oil, the impact of US biodiesel policies and the expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans is neutral to bearish. The supply of global and domestic oils and fats will be seasonally looser in the second quarter, limiting the upside space. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,160 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 92 yuan/ton; the basis price was 05+230 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton. Domestic spot supply-demand has become looser, and the basis has weakened [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production reached 427 million tons, with Brazil producing 180 million tons and Argentina 48 million tons. The USDA's February outlook forum estimated that the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season will be 85 million acres, an increase of 3.8 million acres year-on-year. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are estimated to be 112 million tons. Due to slow Brazilian shipments and seasonal destocking in China, the destocking of domestic soybeans and soybean meal from March to April is expected to continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean demand reached 424 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons year-on-year. In China, the high demand for soybeans is supported by the high inventory of pigs and poultry. However, current losses in pig farming may lead to a reduction in production capacity, and soybean meal demand in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected. As of March 20, the national soybean inventory was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel. If crude oil prices continue to rise, planting costs are expected to increase. Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil-to-meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is improving, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for April - May shipments at around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of the week of March 27, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 50 yuan/ton to 9,768 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 60 yuan/ton to 8,688 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 9,877 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang increased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - SPPOMA reported that the palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month-on-month, while MPOA reported a 0.92% increase from March 1 - 20. Exports improved significantly, with a 38.4 - 50.42% increase from March 1 - 25. However, Indian refiners have suspended vegetable oil imports recently, and the Ramadan has ended, with the palm oil production season approaching in April. In China, the import profit of palm oil has deteriorated, and the estimated arrival of palm oil in April is 60,000 tons, a significant decrease from the monthly average of 200,000 tons in January - February. As of the week of March 20, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased to 808,200 tons [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Trump's visit to China in May is expected to boost China's purchase of US soybeans. However, the EPA's biodiesel blending volume for 2026 - 27 did not exceed market expectations, which is negative for the demand of US soybean oil for biodiesel. The market is also concerned about the crop planting intention report at the end of March, with a high probability of an increase in the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season. In South America, the USDA's March report maintained the Brazilian soybean production at 180 million tons and slightly reduced the Argentine soybean production to 48 million tons. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter is beneficial for the destocking of soybean oil. As of the week of March 20, the domestic soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 860,700 tons. However, after the consultation between China and Brazil on soybean quarantine issues, the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has gradually increased, and the destocking of soybean oil inventory will be limited in April - May [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The war in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices and shipping costs, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the customs clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, resulting in a tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the import profit has turned positive. It is expected that 20 ships of imported rapeseed will arrive in China from April - June, leading to a looser supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second quarter. As of the week of March 20, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 128,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons [73].

Group 1 - The price of soybean is weak due to increased market supply pressure from policy-driven auction sales and poor demand performance [1] - The price difference between soybean and soybean meal is currently low, indicating a consolidation phase [1] - Import soybeans are performing strongly, supported by U.S. biodiesel policies that boost the soybean and soybean oil markets [1] Group 2 - China's soybean procurement schedule for November is low, with expectations of tighter supply in Q1 next year, necessitating attention to U.S. soybean exports to China [1] - Domestic soybeans need to be monitored for weather, policy changes, and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [1] - Global oilseed strength driven by biodiesel policies is leading to increased soybean crushing, indicating a shift towards oil extraction [1] Group 3 - In Q4 and Q1 next year, the U.S. tariff policy is affecting Brazilian soybean sales, which are over 80%, despite high premiums [1] - The expected soybean arrival volume from August to October is 10 million tons, indicating sufficient supply for Q4, but potential shortages in Q1 next year [1] - Weather conditions in major U.S. soybean-producing areas are expected to be slightly cooler with less rainfall, posing challenges for new crop growth [1] Group 4 - Uncertainties in China-U.S. trade may lead to a continued divergence between strong external oil prices and weak meal prices, reducing the correlation between domestic soybean meal and U.S. soybeans [1] - If no trade agreement is reached by year-end, the soybean shortfall in Q4 and Q1 next year could strengthen soybean meal prices, leading to a cautious bullish outlook for soybean meal in the medium to long term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, short - term soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line due to good weather in the US and sufficient supply in South America. In the North American season, low carry - over stocks and high planting costs will support the price. For soybean meal, high livestock and poultry inventories support demand, and the price is expected to be strong during the de - stocking period [6][93]. - For oils, although there are short - term factors leading to a decline in market sentiment, the fundamentals still support the price. It is expected that the price will experience a limited decline in the short term and then have an upward momentum [93]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Performance - As of July 18, the spot price in East China was 2,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - Brazil's 2024/25 production reached 169 million tons, and China's imports in August are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The domestic oil mill operating rate has risen above 60%, and soybean meal inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, the carry - over stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season are slightly increased, but the supply - demand structure is tightening [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the breeding profit in China has improved, and the high inventories of pigs and poultry support the demand for feed. The proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula has increased year - on - year, and the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,141 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 990 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal is around 2,750 - 2,820 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Strategy - For the M2509 contract, be cautious about long positions in the short term and pay attention to the support at around 2,980 yuan/ton. For the M2511 and M2601 contracts, go long at low prices in the long term [6]. 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Performance - As of the week of July 25, the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 8,936 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 8,144 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 yuan/ton to 9,457 yuan/ton [93][95]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Shipping data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 decreased by 9.23 - 15.22% compared with the previous month, while the production increased by 6.19 - 11.24% from July 1 - 20. The inventory in Indonesia is in a tight balance, and the price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise after a short - term decline [93]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The high - temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will ease in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans. The EPA's RVO2 draft boosts the demand for biodiesel, and the short - term decline of US soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase in the short term, but the supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [93]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The rainfall in Canada has improved the growth of rapeseed, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The possibility of China restarting the import of Australian rapeseed needs attention [93]. 2.5 Strategy - In the short term, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,800 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Adopt the strategy of going long on dips [93].