Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 10, 2025 - Authors: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term market sentiment has improved due to factors like the China - US leaders' phone call and technical buying in ferroalloys. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory negative factor is weakening, supply is low, and ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend. With the further reduction of Ningxia's electricity price this week and the arrival of the wet season in the South, the cost side is expected to decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of the black market during the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to run weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 17.84%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 45.7% - Silicon manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 66.1% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron - Silicon iron has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound - The total inventory of silicon iron shows a de - stocking trend [7] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - The total inventory of silicon manganese shows a de - stocking trend - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5][8] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - The port inventory of thermal coal is at a high level, the coal sector remains weak, and there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys. This week, the electricity price of ferroalloys in Ningxia fell below 0.4 yuan/kWh to 0.395 yuan/kWh - The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises is 32.78%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The weekly output of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.61% [9] Silicon Manganese - In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, the black market as a whole is declining, and the market doubts the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 35.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%. The weekly output of silicon manganese is 171,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [10] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 276 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline - The number of warehouse receipts was 15,415, a day - on - day decrease of 47 and a week - on - week decrease of 1038 [10] Silicon Manganese - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 248 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 124 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions were relatively stable or slightly increased - The number of warehouse receipts was 100,048, a day - on - day decrease of 717 and a week - on - week decrease of 4530 [10][11]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/9 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.97% | 41.8% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 25.60% | 66.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 29, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall valuation of ferrosilicon lacks upward momentum, and its price center is expected to remain weak at a low level. The ferromanganese market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, supply - side changes, and manganese ore shipping performance [3] Summary by Relevant Content Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 19.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 59.5% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 29.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 86.6% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement of regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices, they can buy ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - For ferrosilicon, the high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports, the continuous weak decline of the coal sector, the continuous production reduction of ferrosilicon, the difficulty in significant growth of the demand side, and the possibility of further decline in the cost side all lead to the lack of upward momentum in the overall valuation - For ferromanganese, affected by the policy disturbances in South Africa on Thursday, but the policy implementation takes a long time. The ferromanganese price rose first and then fell. The weak demand and high inventory limit the price increase, and the market has digested the impact of the South African policy [3] 利多 Factors Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for ferrosilicon - The low valuation of ferrosilicon due to continuous decline has the possibility of rebound - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 30.42%, a decrease of 0.8% compared with last week, and the weekly output is 8.89 tons, a decrease of 4.92% compared with last week [7] Ferromanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry - Although the total inventory of ferromanganese is at a high level, it shows a de - stocking trend [7] 利空 Factors Ferrosilicon - The high - level inventory of ferrosilicon suppresses its price - The high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports and the continuous weakness of the coal sector indicate that there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys - The hot metal output begins to decline [8][11] Ferromanganese - In the long run, the sluggish real estate market, the decline of the black sector as a whole, and the doubts about the growth of the terminal demand for steel lead to relatively weak demand for ferromanganese - The high factory inventory and high warehouse receipts, and the increase in the total inventory, suppress the price increase [8] Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 148 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 78 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 50 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5350 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, 5350 yuan/ton, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively - The number of warehouse receipts was 16,953 [9] Ferromanganese - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 94 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 42 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5400 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5500 yuan/ton respectively - The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, and Qinzhou Gabonese ore were 41.5 yuan/ton, 33.2 yuan/ton, 36.8 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton respectively - The price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke was 960 yuan/ton - The number of warehouse receipts was 111,154 [10]