Core Insights - U.S. consumer confidence has declined in September, reflecting growing pessimism among Americans regarding inflation and the weakening job market [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to increasing concerns over inflation and a deteriorating job market [1]

Core Insights - The job market remains stagnant, with hiring in August at 5.1 million and a hiring rate of 3.2%, showing little change from July [3] - Unemployment increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August, indicating a worsening situation for job seekers [3] - Consumer spending rose by 0.4% in August, maintaining the same pace as July, despite rising concerns about inflation and job availability [5] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has raised its forecast for third quarter economic growth to 3.9% from 3.3% [5] - Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in September, driven by anxiety over inflation and the job market [7] Economic Indicators - The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, remained at a 2.9% annual rate [5] - The share of consumers reporting that jobs are plentiful decreased from 30.2% to 26.9%, while those finding jobs hard to get remained at 19.1% [7] - The assessment of business conditions by consumers has become less positive, with expectations for improvement declining [7] Consumer Sentiment - Households express feelings of being "stuck" in the economy, with rising concerns about inflation and job availability potentially impacting discretionary spending [4] - Despite concerns, households have not yet reduced their spending [4] - The ongoing assessment of job availability has reached a multiyear low, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment regarding the job market [7]

Group 1: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence decreased in September, with the Conference Board's index at 94.2, down 3.6 points from August and below the Dow Jones estimate of 96.0, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The "present situation" index also hit its lowest in a year, indicating a less positive assessment of business conditions and a decline in job availability for the ninth consecutive month [2] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - Job openings in August totaled 7.23 million, a slight increase of 19,000 from July but a decrease of 422,000, or 5.5%, compared to the same period last year [3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report indicated a slower pace in hiring and total separations, with quits falling by 75,000, reflecting decreased worker confidence [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Labor market stability is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate adjustments, with expectations of a half percentage point cut by year-end [5] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted risks of labor demand falling short of supply, potentially leading to a significant increase in the unemployment rate [6] Group 4: Labor Market Perceptions - There is a growing divide in labor market perceptions, with the percentage of respondents indicating jobs are "plentiful" dropping to 26.9%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from August, while the "hard to get" measure remained at 19.1% [7] - Respondents expressed increased pessimism about their financial situations, with the largest one-month drop since July 2022 [7]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index decreased to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the previous month, marking the lowest level since April [1] Group 1 - The decline in consumer confidence indicates a potential slowdown in consumer spending, which could impact various sectors [1] - The drop from 97.8 to 94.2 represents a significant change in consumer sentiment, suggesting increased economic uncertainty [1]

Market Sentiment - Greater faith in China's stockmarket has not stirred optimism about the economy [1] - Consumer confidence, which collapsed during the pandemic, remains low [1]

Valuation Metrics - Shiller's CAPE is currently at 40x, the highest level since the dot-com bubble, indicating a potentially expensive market [4] - Trailing P/E stands at about 28x, significantly above historical averages, calculated using earnings from the past 12 months [5] - Forward P/E is approximately 22x, also above historical averages, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months [6] - All valuation metrics suggest that the stock market is expensive, implying weak returns in the future [7] Historical Context - In mid-2014, Shiller's CAPE was about 26x, above its long-term average of 17x, suggesting the market was expensive [8] - The realized CAPE at that time was about 17x, indicating the market was not expensive due to healthy earnings growth in subsequent years [9] Macroeconomic Developments - Inflation is rising, with the core PCE price index up 2.9% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [13] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% month-over-month in August, reaching a record annual rate of $21.11 trillion [14] - Business investment activity improved, with core capex orders rising 0.6% to $76.7 billion in August [15] - Initial unemployment claims fell to 218,000, indicating a historically strong labor market [16] Housing Market Insights - Sales of previously owned homes decreased by 0.2% in August, while new home sales surged 20.5% to an annualized rate of 800,000 units [19][20] - The median existing-home sales price rose 2.0% year-over-year, marking the 26th consecutive month of price increases [20] Economic Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, supported by expectations for years of earnings growth [23] - Demand for goods and services remains positive, bolstered by healthy consumer and business balance sheets [24] - Economic growth is normalizing, with major tailwinds like excess job openings fading [25] - There is a disconnect between hard economic data and soft sentiment-oriented data, with tangible activity continuing to grow [26] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to positive operating leverage from companies adjusting cost structures [27] - Risks such as political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and energy price volatility remain present [28]

Consumer confidence in the UK has declined in September as inflation continues to strain household budgets, new data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and opinion polling group Opinium shows. The survey indicates growing pessimism about the economy and personal finances, amid fears that rising costs — especially food inflation — will persist and hamper retail and saving behaviour. Sentiment across the economy and households The BRC-Opinium Consumer Sentiment Monitor, which surveys 2,000 UK adul ...

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up as Market Focuses on the Fed The Fed is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates, with markets pricing in a 25 basis-point rate reduction, LSEG data show. However, a larger 50 basis-point reduction looks unlikely and Danske Bank analysts said they expect "a more gradual rate-cutting cycle rather than back-to-back cuts." They cited Friday's University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for September, which showed one- year inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.8% ...

Group 1 - The stock market is reaching new heights, but this does not correlate with a rally in the macroeconomy, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals [1] - Consumer-facing businesses are showing warning signs regarding consumer confidence and spending, suggesting challenges in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in covering technology companies and working with startups, which provides insights into current industry trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a mix of corporate developments, economic data, and breaking news that influenced investor sentiment, particularly highlighted by Tesla's share rebound and declining US consumer confidence [1] Group 1: Corporate Developments - Tesla shares saw a significant rebound, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment towards the company [1] - The capture of a notable figure in the news cycle may have implications for market dynamics and investor behavior [1] Group 2: Economic Data - There is a noted weakening in US consumer confidence, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth [1]