Some new data out this morning providing some new insights into the state of China's economy. Joining us right now is China Beigebook CEO Leland Miller, which is the organization September report actually showing that the Chinese economy is starting to build momentum with every key indicator showing improvement. U Leland, where is the growth. Where's the improvement.How would you characterize it overall. Well, it's it's been an interesting couple of months because the strength is not in one particular place ...

Government Policy & Economic Stimulus - China announced measures to stimulate domestic demand [1] - The measures focus on promoting consumption of services like sports and entertainment [1]

Group 1: China’s Economic Initiatives - China is rolling out policies to invigorate service consumption and tourism, including issuing 5-year multiple-entry visas to a broader range of individuals and extending business hours for tourist attractions and museums [2][3][9] - The country aims to expand pilot programs in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract global capital and open up the economy [3][9] - China plans to promote international sporting events, targeting a total scale of the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion) by 2030, as part of its strategy to make domestic demand the primary engine of economic growth [3][9] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Stance - The ECB is maintaining a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, with Governing Council member Scicluna stating that there are no planned cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4][9] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Ford Motor Company is set to cut 1,000 jobs at its Cologne plant in Germany in early 2026 as part of a broader restructuring effort across Europe, with a total workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 employees by 2027 [5][9]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,270, down 1.0% for the day but up 26.0% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI also fell by 1.0% to 9,039, with a YTD increase of 24.0% [2] - The MSCI China index decreased by 0.3% to 82, with a YTD growth of 26.3% [2] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil prices fell by 0.4% to US$66 per barrel, down 9.4% YTD [3] - Gold prices decreased by 0.2% to US$3,330 per ounce, but are up 26.9% YTD [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 0.7% to 2,039, showing a significant YTD increase of 104.5% [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.8% in July from 5.2% in Q2 2025 [6] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) showed contraction due to multiple pressures, including adverse weather and property market challenges [7] - Consumption growth moderated in July, with policies shifting focus from durable goods to service consumption [8] Corporate Earnings - Towngas Smart Energy reported a 2% YoY earnings growth to HK$758 million in 1H25, slightly below expectations [10] - The company anticipates a 32% increase in earnings for 2H25 due to higher profits from its renewable business [10] - Shenhua Energy's acquisition of parent assets is expected to be EPS dilutive, with a total book value of RMB90.5 billion for the target assets [17]

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Group 1: Core Themes - The report identifies "Tariff War 2.0" as the largest external risk for China in 2025, with cumulative tariff increases peaking at 145% across various sectors including steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1][14][15] - A policy shift since September 2024 is highlighted, focusing on a "three-arrow" approach that emphasizes structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, although the effectiveness of these measures remains limited [1][13][14] - The report discusses the need for innovation and transformation within the Chinese economy, emphasizing the importance of boosting domestic demand, particularly in the service sector [1][13][14] Group 2: Macroeconomic Conditions - GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2025 exceeded targets, but real estate investment remains a significant drag on overall economic performance [2] - Retail sales and consumption are showing signs of divergence, while exports have demonstrated unexpected resilience [2] - Inflationary pressures are present, with deflation risks also being noted, alongside various fiscal and monetary policy measures being implemented [2] Group 3: Long-term Trends - The report outlines a transition from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, indicating a shift in economic focus [2] - It addresses the implications of US-China relations and the potential relocation of global supply chains, as well as the risks associated with China's "Japanification" [2] - An overview of the financial market and the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is provided, reflecting on the broader economic landscape [2]

Government Finance - China's budget deficit reached a new record in the first half of the year [1] - The increased deficit reflects intensified government efforts to stimulate domestic demand [1]

China isn't trying to dominate global markets, says Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. “Most production serves domestic demand. Exports respond to foreign interest — not a push for market control.” #China #G20 #Trade https://t.co/ak1pHMRw4m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on China's GDP growth, with full-year real GDP growth forecasts raised to 4.7% for 2025 and 3.9% for 2026, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [21]. Core Insights - China's Q2 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above market consensus, driven by strong industrial production but tempered by weak fixed asset investment and retail sales [20][6]. - Industrial production saw a significant increase of 6.8% year-on-year in June, attributed to faster export growth following the US-China trade truce, particularly in the chemical and computer manufacturing sectors [13][7]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with notable declines in property investment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [8][14]. - Retail sales growth decreased to 4.8% year-on-year in June, below market expectations, influenced by an earlier online shopping festival and funding shortages in consumer programs [15][8]. - The services industry output index showed a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in June, indicating resilience in the services sector despite a slight moderation from May [17][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP rose 1.1% quarter-over-quarter non-annualized, with year-on-year growth moderating to 5.2% from 5.4% in Q1, slightly above the consensus of 5.1% [10][20]. - The nominal GDP growth declined to 3.9% in Q2 from 4.6% in Q1, indicating a negative GDP deflator [12]. Industrial Production - Industrial production growth increased to 6.8% year-on-year in June, up from 5.8% in May, with a sequential estimate of 0.9% month-on-month non-annualized growth [13][7]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was reported at 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with a single-month estimate of 0.8% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown from 3.7% in May [8][14]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June from 6.4% in May, with declines across various categories including online and offline goods sales [15][8]. Services Sector - The services industry output index grew by 6.0% year-on-year in June, showing a slight decrease from 6.2% in May, with a sequential growth estimate of 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized [17][9]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with sales volume down 5.4% year-on-year in June, and new home starts declining by 9.5% year-on-year [18][11].

Market Regulation - China's top leadership aims to curb aggressive price competition among businesses [1] - The goal is to accelerate efforts toward a unified national market [1] Economic Impact - The unified national market is intended to help boost domestic demand [1]