Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.2% APY from United Fidelity Bank for a 2-year CD [2] - Historical trends show that CD rates were significantly higher in the early 2000s but fell to around 1% APY for one-year CDs by 2009 due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [3] Group 2: Economic Impact on CD Rates - The Federal Reserve's policies, particularly the decision to keep benchmark interest rates near zero, led to very low CD rates following the Great Recession [3] - Between 2015 and 2018, CD rates improved slightly as the Fed began to increase rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused emergency rate cuts, leading to new record lows for CD rates [4] - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] Group 3: Understanding Today's CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include the term length, type of financial institution, account terms, and the impact of inflation on returns [8]

Market Overview - March 10-year T-notes are up by +9 ticks, with the yield down -3.7 basis points to 4.116% [1] - T-notes reached a 1.5-week high, while the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.10% [1] - Mixed performance in overseas stock markets, with Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.57% and Japan's Nikkei down -1.03% [1] Economic Indicators - The markets are pricing in a 27% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting [2] - US November existing home sales are expected to rise +1.2% month-over-month to 4.15 million [2] - The University of Michigan's December consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 [2] Inflation and Business Outlook - The US December Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell -8.5 to -10.2, contrary to expectations of an increase [3] - US November CPI rose +2.7% year-over-year, below the expected +3.1% [3] - November core CPI increased by +2.6% year-over-year, also weaker than the expected +3.0% and marking the slowest pace in 4.5 years [3] Stock Market Movements - Stock indexes are rising, led by a rebound in chip stocks, with Micron Technology up more than +14% after a positive forecast [5] - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.79%, the Dow Jones by +0.59%, and the Nasdaq 100 by +1.43% [5] - T-notes are higher due to favorable US economic reports, including lower-than-expected CPI and a contraction in the Philadelphia Fed survey [5] European Market Developments - European government bond yields are increasing, with the 10-year German bund yield rising to an 8-month high of 2.897% [7] - The ECB maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.4% [7] - ECB President Lagarde noted the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid uncertain inflation outlook [8] Company-Specific News - Micron Technology reported Q1 revenue of $13.64 billion, exceeding consensus estimates, and forecasted Q2 revenue between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [9] - Lululemon Athletica is up more than +6% following news of Elliot Investment Management acquiring a stake over $1 billion [11] - Merck & Co is up more than +1% after an upgrade from BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $130 [12] Declines in Specific Stocks - Insmed is down more than -14% after a failed mid-stage trial of its therapy [13] - Birkenstock Holding Plc is down more than -3% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EBITDA below consensus [13] - FactSet Research Systems is down more than -2% after forecasting full-year revenue below consensus [14]

Group 1 - Business inventories for September are expected to increase by 0.1%, but the actual figure shows an increase of 210 million, marking the third consecutive reading of a 0.2% increase in this data series, which matches levels seen in June and February [1] Group 2 - The long-end yields are showing sticky behavior, hovering around the 4.16% to 4.17% range, remaining virtually unchanged [2] - There is observed buying in the short end of the yield curve, which is pushing yields down and steepening the yield curve [2]

Employment Data - The non-farm payrolls for November increased by 64,000 jobs, indicating a slower job growth compared to previous months [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since July 2021, while the underemployment rate (U6) is at 8.7%, also the highest since July 2021 [3] - Labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.5%, the best reading since April 2021 [4] Wage and Retail Sales - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, which is below market expectations [2] - Retail sales remained unchanged in November, with a notable improvement of 0.4% when excluding auto sales, marking the best performance since August [5] - The core retail sales figure rose by 0.8%, the highest increase since June [6] Interest Rates and Market Reaction - Interest rates have decreased, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.14% and the 2-year yield down by five basis points [7] - Pre-opening equities showed a positive trend, with the Dow up by approximately 57 points [7]

CBC team coverage uh this morning involves Steve Leeman as well as Rick Santelli. Rick Santelli, let's go to you. You're standing by at the CME.Let's get straight to the numbers. But Mike Santelli, by the way, is out the NY. But Rick, get the numbers, please.>> Yes. October and November for the big job job jobs report. The only thing is it's not Friday.Here we go. November's number comes in at 64,000. 64,000 on non-farm.And if we look at average hourly earnings, they are up onetenth up onetenth of a percent ...

Tuesday was not just the day before the Federal Reserve announced its latest rate cut. It was also the day that the leader of U.S. bank stocks dropped like a rock. JPMorgan (JPM) fell by 4.66% on the day, after the CEO of its Consumer & Community Banking unit startled traders by explaining that its expenses are likely to rise next year. The culprits: inflation and competition. The result? A lot of lost market cap. More News from Barchart One has to wonder if the concerns about the broader economy and ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently skeptical about the necessity for rate cuts, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.20% due to concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [1][2]. Domestic and Global Influences - The rise in 10-year yields is influenced by both domestic factors, such as the Fed's potential for overly accommodative policies amidst persistent inflation near 3%, and global factors, including rising yields in other markets like Japan [4][5]. - Approximately half of all U.S. Treasuries are held outside the U.S., making international yield trends significant for U.S. bond markets [5]. Yield Curve and Market Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with 10-year yields testing the upper range around 4.25% [7]. - Short-term yields are pricing in potential rate cuts, reflecting some softness in the labor market, while long-term trends suggest a steeper yield curve [8]. Investment Opportunities - There are opportunities in global government bonds, particularly as a weaker dollar may enhance diversification [10]. - A focus on high credit quality and intermediate duration bonds is recommended to balance reinvestment risks and inflation-related yield increases [10]. - The municipal bond market offers attractive tax-equivalent yields, making it appealing for investors in higher tax brackets [11]. - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are suggested for those concerned about inflation, as they lock in real yields [11].

It's Rick Santelli. What are the numbers. >> The numbers are our third quarter employment cost index up 8/10en of a percent.That's a smidge lighter than the 9/10 we're expecting. And the last three quarters have been 9/10 from the last quarter 24 the first second quarter this year. And as I said, this is the third quarter.And that would be the lightest going back to wow you have to go back a ways to the second quarter of 2021. It equaled it equal where we were in the third quarter of last year. So it has be ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to meet next week despite the delay of the jobs report, raising questions about the timing and relevance of the meeting [2][4] - Current hiring velocity in the U.S. is ambiguous, with mixed signals from recent economic data, indicating a lack of strong hiring momentum [3][4] - There is a belief that the Fed should aim to bring the funds rate closer to 3% based on available data, although there is some disagreement among Fed members about this approach [4][6] Group 2 - The discussion highlights that inflation remains elevated, but productivity and innovation are expected to mitigate its impact on the economy [7][9] - The current economic environment is characterized as an extraordinary industrial revolution, affecting job availability and inflation dynamics [9] - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy, particularly for lower-income consumers, is questioned, suggesting that traditional monetary policy tools may not have the same impact as before [14][15] Group 3 - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.1%, with expectations that it could stabilize between 3.5% and 4% by the end of 2026, which would influence mortgage rates positively [19][20] - A decrease in mortgage rates to the mid to high fives is anticipated, which could stimulate existing home sales and improve housing market dynamics [21][22] - The Fed's approach to managing interest rates along the yield curve is seen as crucial for corporate and mortgage finance, with a focus on maintaining stability [12][26] Group 4 - Investment strategies are shifting, with a reduction in investment-grade credit due to tight spreads, while agency mortgages are viewed as more attractive [30] - The market is experiencing moderate growth in European high yield and investment-grade sectors, with opportunities in emerging markets being highlighted [31][32] - The goal is to achieve a yield of around 6.25% while maintaining low volatility in fixed income investments, which is seen as a successful strategy [33][34]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are prompting bond investors to reconsider long-term bonds, particularly through ETFs that focus on maximizing yield with maturities extending beyond 10 years [1][2]. Bond Market Trends - Bond traders are increasingly betting on long-term bonds, with expectations that the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries could drop below 4% due to the Fed's rate cuts [2]. - Investors are shifting their focus from the short end of the yield curve to the long end, indicating a strategic change in investment behavior [2]. Investment Options - The Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BLV) is highlighted as a suitable option for investors looking to lock in higher rates for longer periods, tracking a broad index of U.S. government and investment-grade bonds with maturities over 10 years [3]. - For those specifically interested in U.S. Treasuries, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (VGLT) is recommended, which tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Bond Index [4]. - Investors willing to accept higher credit risk for potentially higher yields may consider the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCLT), which tracks a corporate bond index with long-term maturities [5].