STA团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 如果你面前有两个AI助手：一个能力超强却总爱"离经叛道"，另一个规规矩矩却经常"答非所问"，你会怎么选？ 这正是当前大模型控制面临的两难困境：要么模型聪明却难以约束，要么守规矩却缺乏实用性。但我们真正追求的，并不是在"聪明但难 控"与"听话但愚钝"之间二选一，而是打造既强又好的AI助手——既具备强大的智能能力，又能始终按照人类意图行事。 ACL 2025中选论文中，来自浙江大学与腾讯的联合团队提出了新思路： Steering Target Atoms （STA），尝试为大模型注入"行为定向 剂"，助力对模型行为的精准调控，为构建既聪明又听话的AI打下基础。 该方法通过"原子级"粒度对大模型进行行为编辑干预，实现了更鲁棒、更安全的生成控制。 在Gemma和LLaMA系列模型上的实验表明，STA方法能够有效抑制越狱攻击带来的违规输出，同时不削弱模型在正常问题回答中的高质量智 能表现。 大模型行为控制的挑战与突破 在参数训练完成后，很多应用场景会需要在推理阶段调整模型的特定行为，例如让模型拒绝用户的恶意请求。 然而，模型的"安全防御"能力往往和它的"通用智能"能力 ...

上海证券表示，电子行业维持增持评级，预计2025年半导体产业将迎来全面复苏，产业竞争格局加速优 化，盈利周期及企业利润持续回升。半导体关键材料自主创新成为核心逻辑，推动产业链自主可控能力 提升。随着市场出清和修复进程加快，行业整体发展前景乐观，相关企业有望受益于市场回暖和产业升 级的双重红利。 中国银河表示，美国关税政策加速全球产业链区块化，对全球制造业尤其是半导体行业影响深远。中国 半导体协会修改原产地认定规则，利好国产射频/模拟芯片替代，增加美国半导体公司出口成本，强化 国内终端厂商选择国产供应链决心。核心技术平台突破推动车规级产品批量供货，在全球产业结构调整 中抢占增量空间。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 今日，算力硬件股午后持续走强，CPO、PCB等方向领涨，生益电子触及20CM涨停，胜宏科技、鼎泰 高科、瑞可达、仕佳光子、德科立、博创科技涨超10%。截至13点45分，ETF方面，科创芯片ETF基金 （588290）盘中持续拉升，涨幅达到1.92%，分时成交量迅速放大。 消息面上，据科创板日报消息，WSTS（世界半导体贸易统计协会） ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies and achievements of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 38 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and algorithmic analysis for identifying investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke developed a system called "Victory Formation," which focuses on supply/demand imbalances indicated by specific stock price and volume movements [1]. - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles target deep-value stocks or those showing significant positive technical momentum reversals [1]. - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles analyze positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading actions [1]. Group 2: Performance and Recognition - Franke was consistently ranked among the top investment advisors nationally during the 1990s and achieved the 1 position in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest in 2008 and 2009, out of over 60,000 portfolios [1]. - As of September 2024, he is ranked in the Top 3% of bloggers by TipRanks® for 12-month stock picking performance over the last decade [1]. Group 3: Risk Management - Franke advises investors to implement stop-loss levels of 10% or 20% on individual stock choices and to maintain a diversified portfolio of at least 50 well-positioned stocks to enhance regular stock market outperformance [1].

Company Overview - 89bio, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for liver and cardiometabolic diseases [3] - The company is headquartered in San Francisco and aims to provide best-in-class treatment options for patients lacking optimal therapies [3] Key Developments - The company will participate in a fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on June 11, 2025, at 11:20 AM EDT [1] - Management will also engage in one-on-one investor meetings during the conference [1] Product Focus - 89bio is advancing its lead candidate, pegozafermin, through Phase 3 clinical development for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) [3] - Pegozafermin is a fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) analog utilizing glycoPEGylated technology to enhance biological activity and extend half-life [3]

Texas Instruments (TXN) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Texas Instruments (TXN) - **Event**: 2025 Conference - **Date**: June 04, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Demand - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a broad recovery, indicating the beginning of a cyclical upturn, which Texas Instruments is well-prepared for due to prior investments in inventory and capital expenditures (CapEx) over the last four years [4][10][59] - The company has multiple phases in its capacity expansion plan, with significant CapEx required in the first two phases, while the third phase will focus on incremental capacity adjustments [5][6] Capacity and Revenue Projections - Texas Instruments anticipates potential revenue levels in 2026 ranging from $20 billion to $26 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over four years [14][19] - The company is prepared for various revenue scenarios, indicating that even if revenue does not reach the highest projections, they will have excess capacity to meet future demands [16][17] Competitive Landscape - Texas Instruments maintains a competitive edge in the analog market, while the embedded business faces more competition with numerous established players [31][34] - The company is strategically positioned to cater to customers who prefer products not made in China or Taiwan, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and partnerships with foundries outside the U.S. [36][30] Industrial and Automotive Trends - The industrial market is seeing a recovery driven by inventory replenishment and end-market demand, with Texas Instruments noting that industrial demand had been running 40% below peak levels but is now improving [41][52] - In the automotive sector, growth has moderated to low single digits, with expectations for continued growth in electric vehicles (EVs) despite recent slowdowns [54][56] Pricing and Capital Returns - Texas Instruments does not feel pressure to reduce prices despite inventory levels, as their inventory is long-lasting and not subject to fire sale conditions [65] - The company expects to return to a trend of higher buybacks as CapEx decreases and revenue increases, with a focus on maintaining and growing dividends [68][69] Additional Insights - The company is cautious about drawing conclusions from historical cycles due to the unique dynamics of the current market, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for various scenarios [12][50] - Texas Instruments has a robust internal system to manage inventory and production based on historical data and customer demand, which has improved from 150 days of inventory to 227 days [45][46] Conclusion Texas Instruments is strategically positioned to navigate the current semiconductor market recovery, with a focus on capacity expansion, competitive positioning, and prudent financial management. The company is optimistic about future revenue growth while maintaining a strong commitment to capital returns to shareholders.

Summary of Applied Materials (AMAT) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Applied Materials (AMAT) - **Event**: 2025 Conference on June 04, 2025 - **Speaker**: Bryce Hill, Chief Financial Officer Key Points Industry Dynamics - The demand environment for semiconductors is influenced by AI and energy-efficient computing, with a strong pull for investment in leading-edge technologies such as GPUs, CPUs, and high bandwidth memory (HBM) [4][5] - Applied Materials expects to grow approximately 7% this year, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth, despite a slower mature logic business [5][6] - The semiconductor industry is viewed as a secular growth market, with expectations of mid to high single-digit growth rates for semiconductor devices over the long term [6][12] Market Trends - The leading-edge technology segment is experiencing strong growth, while the mature logic market is seeing a slowdown due to previous heavy investments, particularly in China [7][8] - The company is focused on innovations in packaging techniques and materials engineering, which are critical for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [21][22] China Market Impact - Applied Materials is significantly derisked from trade restrictions in China, as its business there primarily involves mature logic technologies [14][15] - Approximately 25% of Applied's business comes from China, with expectations that this will remain stable in the medium term [24] Equipment and WFE Forecast - The overall equipment environment is expected to grow, with Applied projecting a 7% growth rate based on current dynamics [11][12] - The company anticipates that wafer starts for DRAM and leading-edge technologies will continue to increase annually, supporting the growth of the semiconductor equipment market [18][19] DRAM Market Insights - The DRAM market appears flat year-over-year for Applied, but international vendors are experiencing significant growth, particularly in HBM [27][28] - HBM now accounts for approximately 16% of wafer starts, nearly doubling in the last year [28] Gross Margins and Financial Performance - Applied Materials has improved its gross margins, reporting 49.2% in the last quarter and guiding for 48.3% in the upcoming quarter [39][40] - The company has three reportable operating segments, with the core equipment business showing improvements while the services business is growing at low double digits [40][42] Capital Return Strategy - Applied Materials aims to return 80% to 100% of excess profits to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a focus on maintaining a low double-digit growth rate for dividends [52][53] Competitive Landscape - Domestic Chinese competitors are improving but Applied believes its comprehensive service offerings and supply chain advantages will maintain its market share [25][26] - The company continues to innovate and develop products for both leading-edge and mature logic markets [26] Future Outlook - The packaging business is expected to double in size over the next three to five years, driven by innovations in energy efficiency and performance [38] - Applied Materials is investing heavily in R&D and collaboration with customers to stay at the forefront of semiconductor technology [50][51] Valuation Considerations - The semiconductor equipment industry is perceived to trade at lower valuations compared to analog companies, despite strong return metrics, due to historical volatility perceptions [55] Additional Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of continuous improvement in its service offerings, which are increasingly driven by AI and customer needs [46][47] - Applied Materials is focused on long-term growth and innovation, positioning itself to capitalize on emerging trends in the semiconductor industry [55]

Arrow Electronics (ARW) Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - The semiconductor cycle has been one of the longest and most profound in recent history, with indications that the bottom has been reached and recovery is underway [5][6] - Leading indicators such as book-to-bill ratios are above parity across all regions, and backlogs are building, providing improved visibility [6][12] Company Insights Business Segments - Arrow Electronics operates in two main segments: Global Components and Enterprise Computing Solutions (ECS) [9] - The inventory correction phase is largely behind, with some pockets of excess inventory remaining [12] - The ECS segment focuses on cloud, hybrid cloud, and infrastructure software, targeting mid-market customers [48] Financial Performance - The company has seen growth in gross profit (GP) and operating income (OI) over the last three quarters, with expectations for continued growth [50] - Recurring revenue in the ECS business is approaching one-third of total volume, contributing positively to margins [53] Competitive Advantages - Arrow's competitive edge lies in its vast supply chain assets and engineering capabilities, allowing it to serve large multinationals and mass markets effectively [22][24] - The company has invested in value-added services, enhancing its market position beyond traditional distribution [25][29] Market Trends Demand by Region and Vertical - Key verticals include industrial, transportation (including automotive), and aerospace and defense, with varying demand trends across regions [18][19] - Asia, particularly China, is leading the recovery, impacting regional margins [19][20] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have a minimal impact on Arrow's top and bottom lines, estimated at 2-4% of global component sales, and are viewed as neutral overall [38][39] - The company is actively helping customers navigate tariff implications and optimize their supply chains [44][46] Margin Outlook - Operating margins are expected to improve as the market normalizes, driven by scale, return of mass market demand, and growth in value-added offerings [31][33] - The ECS segment's margin profile is stable, with expectations for gradual improvement as recurring revenue grows [56] Investment Thesis - Arrow Electronics is aligned with attractive end markets with healthy growth potential, aiming to grow at or above market rates [59] - The company prioritizes organic growth, selective M&A, and capital returns, with a focus on enhancing shareholder value [60] Conclusion - Arrow Electronics is positioned for recovery and growth, with a clear strategy to leverage its competitive advantages and navigate market challenges effectively [61]

Core Insights - China's technology sector is expected to show resilience in H2 2025, leveraging global trade pressures to foster indigenous innovation despite facing significant U.S. tariffs and export restrictions [2] - Major Chinese tech companies are pivoting investments towards AI infrastructure and emerging technologies, with strong demand for AI outpacing supply [2] - The semiconductor industry in China has captured over 25% of the global market share in advanced packaging technologies, showcasing its competitive edge [5] Company Highlights - **NetEase**: - Demonstrated strong financial momentum with Q1 2025 gaming revenues increasing by 12.1% year over year to RMB24.0 billion and net income rising by 35% to RMB10.3 billion [9][11] - Upcoming game titles and a robust pipeline position the company for growth in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - **Alibaba**: - Reported Q4 fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings surged by 23% year over year to $1.73 per ADS, exceeding estimates by 16.89% [12][13] - The Cloud Intelligence segment achieved 18% revenue growth, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [12] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: - Achieved Q1 2025 revenues of $25.53 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, with net income rising by 53% to nearly $11 billion [15] - Plans to increase capital spending to between $38 and $42 billion in 2025 to meet growing AI-driven demand for advanced chips [16] - **Tencent**: - Reported Q1 revenues of RMB180 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, with gaming division growth accelerating [17] - Integrated AI capabilities are enhancing user engagement and advertising effectiveness, positioning the company favorably in the market [18][19] Industry Trends - The robotics sector in China is advancing with innovations such as sophisticated humanoid robots, while the electric vehicle ecosystem is bolstered by companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor [6] - Augmented reality companies in Beijing are developing advanced AR solutions, reflecting China's strategy to lead in high-tech sectors [7] - The overall technological advancements and significant investments in development present substantial growth opportunities for investors in the Chinese tech landscape [8]

Core Insights - Newmark Group facilitated the $150.7 million sale of i|o at Playa Vista, marking the highest sale price in Los Angeles year-to-date [1] - The transaction reflects strong institutional investor interest in the office sector, indicating a recovery in capital markets for quality office products [3] Company Overview - Newmark Group, Inc. is a leading commercial real estate advisor and service provider, generating over $2.8 billion in revenues for the twelve months ended March 31, 2025 [6] - The company operates from 165 offices with approximately 8,100 professionals across four continents [6] Transaction Details - The i|o campus spans 306,809 square feet and has maintained an average occupancy level of over 90% since its redesign in 2016 [3] - The property has attracted 78,000 square feet of new leasing over the past 24 months at market-leading rates [3] Market Trends - Trophy buildings in prime locations like Playa Vista are outperforming other asset classes due to strong demand for high-end design and amenities [5] - The competitive bidding process for the i|o campus indicates a broader recovery in the office market, with institutional investors willing to accept leasing uncertainty [3]

Core Insights - Akebia Therapeutics has published significant data regarding Vafseo (vadadustat) in the Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, focusing on its safety and efficacy in treating anemia related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) [1][2][4] Company Overview - Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to improving the lives of individuals affected by kidney disease, founded in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts [5] - The company aims to advance the understanding and treatment of kidney diseases through high-impact research [4] Product Information - Vafseo (vadadustat) is a once-daily oral medication approved by the U.S. FDA in March 2024 for treating anemia due to CKD in adults on dialysis for at least three months, and it has been available in the U.S. since January 2025 [3][6] - Vafseo functions as a hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, stimulating the production of erythropoietin to manage anemia [6] Clinical Trial Insights - The global phase 3 clinical trials for vadadustat were open-label, randomized, and noninferiority trials comparing its safety and efficacy to darbepoetin alfa in adult patients with CKD-related anemia [2] - In the U.S. patient subgroup with dialysis-dependent CKD, the safety and efficacy of vadadustat were found to be similar to darbepoetin alfa, while in non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients, vadadustat showed a higher risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) outside the U.S. [2] Research Publication - The analyses published in JASN reflect the importance of geographic-specific data in understanding treatment outcomes for CKD-related anemia, highlighting how regional differences can affect clinical trial results [4]