金十整理：新西兰联储利率决议重点一览——有进一步降息的空间 5. 市场反应：利率决议公布后，纽元兑美元NZD/USD累计上涨约40点。 3. 利率预期：预计到2025年9月官方现金利率为3.12%（此前预测为3.23%）；到2026年6月官方现金利 率将维持在2.87%（之前预测为3.1%）；到2028年6月官方现金利率将维持在3.1%。有进一步适当降低 官方现金利率的空间，现金利率预期显示至少将再降息25个基点。 4. 经济前景：预计2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.4%。经济中存在剩余产能；有能力应对国内外经济 形势的变化。海外关税政策和不确定性将减缓经济复苏。 1. 利率决议：新西兰联储将政策利率从3.50%下调至3.25%，为连续第六次降息，符合市场预期。委员 会讨论了维持利率不变或降息25个基点的选择方案，最终以5:1的投票比例同意降息。 2. 通胀预期：核心通胀率正在下降，通胀位于目标区间内。预计到2026年6月年度CPI将达到1.9%，低 于此前预测的2.2%。目前的形势表明，中期内通胀有望回归1%至3%目标区间的中位数水平。 ...

墨西哥第一季度GDP同比增长0.8%，符合市场预期。 ...

新加坡第一季度GDP同比增长3.9%，预估3.6%。 ...

巴基斯坦政府：巴基斯坦在2024 - 2025财年第三季度实现了2.40%的增长；巴基斯坦修正后的第一季度 和第二季度GDP分别为1.37%和1.53%。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, the lowest level in two years, in response to declining domestic inflation concerns [1] - Australia's inflation rate has significantly decreased since peaking in 2022, with the latest overall inflation data projected to reach 2.4% by the first quarter of 2025, the lowest in four years [1] - The RBA anticipates that inflation will drop to around 2% by the end of 2026, below its baseline forecast of 2.6%, while GDP levels are expected to be over 3% lower than baseline scenarios by mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The RBA acknowledges that the recent trade truce between the US and China has alleviated some downside risks to global growth, but warns of potential escalation into a broader trade war that could significantly impact domestic GDP growth and increase unemployment rates [2] - In a trade war scenario, the RBA predicts that Australia's unemployment rate could rise to nearly 6% if the US reinstates higher tariffs in 2026 and other countries retaliate [2] - The RBA believes that higher tariffs could have a counter-inflationary effect on Australia, although a prolonged trade war may exacerbate inflationary pressures due to increased tariffs affecting a larger share of global trade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trade-weighted Australian dollar exchange rate has remained stable since February, providing little support for GDP growth [1] Group 1 - The stability of the trade-weighted Australian dollar indicates a lack of significant fluctuations in currency value [1] - The Australian dollar's performance has not contributed positively to the country's economic growth [1]

泰国一季度GDP同比增长3.1%，预估为2.9%；环比增长0.7%，预估为0.5%。 ...

智通财经5月16日电，香港1季度GDP终值同比增长3.1%，符合市场预期。 ...

马来西亚第一季度GDP终值同比增长4.4%，预估为4.5%。 ...