Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating across equity regions to maximize diversification, with a shift to a more defensive asset allocation [4]. Core Insights - The market experienced a significant sell-off following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US, leading to an 11% drop in the S&P 500, marking one of the largest two-day declines since the Great Depression [2][9]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) saw one of its largest two-day drops since 1991, indicating a broad 'risk-off' sentiment across assets, with the RAI closing at approximately -1.4 [3][4]. - Historically, RAI levels near or below -2 have indicated better opportunities to 'buy the dip', with a hit ratio of over 90% for positive S&P 500 returns in the subsequent 12 months from such levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Reaction - The S&P 500's drop of 11% since the tariff announcement is the fifth largest two-day drop since the Great Depression, with US equities leading the sell-off across assets [2][9]. - Non-US equities initially reacted less sharply but saw accelerated declines later, while credit spreads widened, indicating increased credit beta to the equity sell-off [2]. Risk Appetite Indicator - The RAI dropped to around -1.4, with a tendency to bottom lower during previous market sell-offs, suggesting potential buying opportunities when it reaches levels near or below -2 [3][10]. - The credit component of the RAI fell rapidly, closing the gap with the equity component, although credit is still pricing a low probability of recession [3][4]. Asset Allocation - The report indicates a shift to a more defensive asset allocation, moving from Overweight (OW) equities to Neutral (N), while maintaining OW in bonds and underweight (UW) in credit [4][19]. - The probability of a sell-off for equities is now above 40%, driven by worsening market sentiment [4].

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the stock market could see declines deepen by another 20% amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs and that CEOs are telling him they think the U.S. economy is likely already in a recession. "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," Fink told the Economic Club of New York on Monday. Tariffs are expected to make a wide variety of products more expensive, exacerbating inflationary pressures that have been persistent in recent mon ...

Three major U.S. indexes the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed deeply in red by 9.89%, 9.58% and 8.78% respectively, last week. The stocks have taken a beating after the implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies with major trading partners on April 2, 2025. Uncertainty over the impact of such policies on the U.S. economy has stoked fear of a near-term recession among market participants.Analysts are expecting a slowdown in economic growth a ...

JPMorgan’s CEO says America’s latest tariffs could dampen an economy that was “already weakening.”In his annual letter to shareholders, published Monday (April 7), Jamie Dimon argues that there are several uncertainties tied to the tariff policy: the effect on confidence, investments, corporate profits and the U.S. dollar, as well as retaliation by other countries.“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse ...

Within the space of just a few days, the stock market has nearly unraveled all of 2024's gains, driven by the fear that Trump's fresh tariff plan will set the U.S. on a faster collision course to a recession. Amid this backdrop, however, investors who haveWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has b ...

Core Viewpoint - Verizon Communications is viewed as a reliable defensive stock but has struggled to outperform the market, particularly during bull markets [1][2][12] Group 1: Performance and Market Comparison - Since the current bull market began on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has risen by 51%, while Verizon's stock has only increased by 28% [2] - In 2023, Verizon's stock rallied by 14% as the S&P 500 declined by 8%, indicating its defensive nature during economic uncertainty [2] - Over the past 20 years, Verizon's stock has only risen by 34%, with a $10,000 investment growing to $13,400, compared to an S&P 500 index fund that would have grown to approximately $43,140 [3][4] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Debt - Verizon's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 3% from 2004 to 2024 [4] - The company's year-end debt increased from $39.3 billion to $168.4 billion, primarily due to a $130 billion acquisition of Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless in 2014 [5] - Verizon expects its wireless revenue to grow by 2% to 2.8% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA projected to grow by 1% to 3% [8] Group 3: Subscriber Growth and Market Strategy - In 2023, Verizon struggled to gain new wireless subscribers, attributing the slowdown to competition from AT&T, T-Mobile, and other smaller players [6] - In 2024, Verizon doubled its postpaid phone net additions, thanks to localized incentives, marketing campaigns, and a partnership with Walmart [7] - The wireless retail churn rate improved from 1.67% in 2023 to 1.62% in 2024, indicating better customer retention [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Verizon's enterprise value is $329 billion, trading at 7 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, with a forward dividend yield of 6.1% [9] - If Verizon maintains a CAGR of 3% for adjusted EPS and EBITDA over the next 20 years, its stock could potentially rise by more than 90% to around $88 per share by 2045 [11] - Despite potential gains, Verizon is expected to underperform compared to the S&P 500, which has delivered an average annual return of over 10% since 1957 [11][12]

Core Points - U.S. Treasury yields have significantly decreased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% due to fears of a global recession triggered by China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 16 basis points to 3.89%, marking the lowest level since October, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over 22 basis points to 3.50% [2] - China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods starting April 10, following President Trump's implementation of a 10% baseline tariff affecting over 180 countries, which has led to a surge in Treasury purchases for safety [3][4] - JPMorgan has increased the probability of a recession this year to 60% from 40%, citing that sustained tariff policies could push the U.S. and potentially the global economy into recession [4] - Investors are anticipating the nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations of a 140,000 job increase and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which will provide insights into the U.S. economic health amid growth concerns [5] - A weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report could exacerbate recession fears, while a stronger report may be viewed as outdated due to the looming impact of tariffs on the job market [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current stock market sell-off is disproportionately impacting artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, which have been dominant in recent years, leading to some stocks reaching bargain-bin status [1] - Alphabet's stock has reached valuation levels rarely seen in the past few years, signaling potential investment opportunities [2][4] Group 2: Alphabet's Financial Performance - Approximately 75% of Alphabet's revenue is derived from advertising, making it vulnerable to cuts in advertising budgets during economic downturns [3] - Alphabet's stock has not been this cheap since early 2023, despite a significant growth of nearly 60% throughout the year [4] Group 3: Historical Context and Recovery - Alphabet's stock has historically recovered from significant sell-offs, including during the COVID-related sell-off, the Great Recession, and in 2012, providing strong returns to shareholders [5] - Concerns about a potential recession and government actions against Alphabet for alleged monopoly practices are present, but the company has a history of bouncing back [5][6] Group 4: Government Regulations and Future Outlook - The U.S. government is pursuing actions to break up Alphabet's dominance in search and advertising technology, with ongoing cases that could impact its business structure [5] - Despite regulatory concerns, the company believes that spin-offs could create value, and the focus remains on purchasing Alphabet stock at its current valuation [6][7]

ToplineU.S. futures indexes fell sharply early on Thursday, led by a deep slide in major tech stocks, while global markets also faced a major selloff after President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs raised fears of a global trade war and recession.Apple CEO Tim Cook (C) seen behind US President Donald Trump (R) and US Vice President JD Vance (L) ... More after the two were sworn into office at an inauguration ceremony in the rotunda of the United States Capitol in Washington, DC.Getty Images Key F ...

Group 1 - Long-term investors have an opportunity to acquire shares of high-growth stocks as their prices are currently misaligned with fundamentals due to market volatility [1] - The overall recession is believed to have further room to develop, indicating potential challenges ahead for the market [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry trends [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or advice, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results [2][3]