二次设备龙头业绩保持稳健增长 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 证券研究报告 国电南瑞 (600406 CH) 国电南瑞发布三季报：Q3实现营收143.33亿元（yoy+16.65%，qoq-6.61%）， 归母净利 19.03 亿元（yoy+7.81%，qoq-16.24%）。我们认为公司作为国 内二次设备龙头，有望充分受益于新型电力系统建设，网内业务伴随电网投 资实现持续稳健增长；网外与国际业务快速开拓，盈利有望持续提升，维持 "买入"评级。 业绩稳步增长，期间费用控制良好 2025 年 Q1-3 实现营收 385.77 亿元（yoy+18.45%），归母净利 48.55 亿 元（yoy+8.43%），扣非净利 46.39 亿元（yoy+7.04%）。公司 2025 年 Q1-3 毛利率为 26.47%，同比-2.79pct，净利率为 13.34%，同比-1.32pct；毛利 率下降主要系业务结构调整，毛利率相对较低的网外业务收入占比提升。公 司 2025 年 Q1-3 整体费用率为 11.96%，同比-1.20pct，其中，销售、管 理、财务、研发费用率分别为 3.91%、2.49%、-0.4 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment on October 30, with the only ETF tracking power grid equipment (159326) showing a decline of 1.16% and a trading volume of 68.28 million yuan, while some constituent stocks like Igor and State Grid Yingda rose against the trend [1] - The power grid equipment ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high of 424 million yuan, making it the largest power grid-themed ETF in the market [1] - The 2025 National Power Grid Technology Exchange Conference highlighted the importance of advancing core technologies in the power grid, such as high-voltage large-capacity flexible DC transmission technology, to support the construction of a new power system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 2 - The power grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the CSI Power Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors like transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, and cable components [2] - The index has a high weight of 63% in ultra-high voltage, the highest in the market, and includes leading companies such as State Grid Nari, TBEA, and Sifang Electric in its top ten holdings [2] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities anticipates continued growth in power grid investment in 2025, benefiting leading companies with global competitiveness due to domestic construction and overseas market dual drivers, particularly in ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors [1]

Core Insights - The cumulative electricity market transaction volume in China reached 49,239 billion kilowatt-hours from January to September, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% and accounting for 63.4% of the total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The electricity sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of electricity supply-demand tensions [1] - The rapid growth of new energy installations and ongoing emphasis on energy security policies suggest that the peak value of coal power will continue to be highlighted [1] - The construction of a new power system under the dual carbon goals will likely continue to rely on the enrichment and investment in system regulation methods [1] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - The formal introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism clarifies the foundational role of coal power, and the promotion of electricity spot markets and ancillary service market mechanisms is expected to continue [1] - The ongoing market reform in the electricity sector is anticipated to lead to a stable increase in electricity prices [1] Group 3: Coal Power Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission's increased efforts to ensure long-term coal supply contracts are expected to marginally improve the actual performance rate of these contracts [1] - Coal power companies are likely to maintain controllable costs, benefiting from self-owned coal or a high proportion of long-term coal contracts [1] - The performance of electricity operators is expected to significantly improve in the future [1] Group 4: Short-term Performance Expectations - In 2025, annual long-term contract electricity prices are expected to decrease in various regions, while capacity prices for thermal power will rise comprehensively next year [2] - The third-quarter performance of thermal power is showing an upward trend, with the rebound in coal prices enhancing expectations for stable electricity prices [2] - The improvement in water supply during the autumn flood season for hydropower, combined with a shift in investment focus, suggests a need for careful asset allocation [2] - Frequent issuance of energy storage policies indicates that there is still room for improvement in the capacity compensation mechanism, highlighting the value of regulatory power sources [2]

Core Insights - The event titled "2025 Northwest Power Employees' Technical Innovation Achievements Exchange and Innovation Team Style Display" was held in Dunhuang, Gansu, focusing on promoting innovation among power industry employees in Northwest China [1][3] - The theme "Gathering Craftsmanship, Moving Towards Innovation" aimed to create a platform for exchanging technical innovations and enhancing the innovative capabilities of employees in the power sector [3][6] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Northwest Electric Power Working Committee of the China Energy Chemical and Geological Union and hosted by the Gansu Electric Power Company [1] - Over a hundred representatives from various power companies in Northwest China participated, including State Grid Northwest Branch and China Power Investment Corporation [1][5] Group 2: Activities and Participation - A total of 32 teams participated, focusing on key technology areas such as grid safety, renewable energy consumption, intelligent operation and maintenance, and energy conservation [5][6] - The event included video presentations, results announcements, expert questioning, and on-site scoring to showcase the innovative practices and team spirit of the participants [3][5] Group 3: Key Messages from Leadership - The Deputy Director of the State Grid Northwest Branch emphasized that innovation is the primary driving force for development and a key element for new productive forces [6] - The importance of focusing on grid safety, new power system construction, and energy transition was highlighted, along with the need to enhance production efficiency and ensure labor safety [6] Group 4: Outcomes and Future Directions - The event not only showcased the innovative spirit of the employees but also injected new momentum into technical exchanges and collaborative development among power enterprises in five provinces [8] - Participants expressed their commitment to applying the insights gained from the event to support the green transition of energy in Northwest China and contribute to the high-quality development of the State Grid Corporation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Guoneng Xinyuan Jurong Pumped Storage Power Station has officially commenced full operation, marking a significant milestone in energy storage and renewable energy integration in the East China power grid [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Guoneng Xinyuan Jurong Pumped Storage Power Station, located in Jiangsu Province, has a total installed capacity of 1.35 million kilowatts, featuring six reversible pump-turbine units, each with a capacity of 225,000 kilowatts [1]. - The design annual power generation capacity is 1.35 billion kilowatt-hours, with an annual water pumping capacity of 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours [1]. - The project includes the construction of 21 kilometers of transmission lines and 53 transmission towers, connecting to the East China Power Grid at 500 kV [1]. Group 2: Operational Performance - Since the first unit was put into operation in September 2024, the power station has effectively responded to grid adjustments, demonstrating stable operation and excellent performance across key indicators [1]. - Each unit contributes to peak shaving, frequency regulation, phase adjustment, and energy storage, with an average monthly consumption of renewable energy reaching 33.75 million kilowatt-hours and green electricity generation of 27 million kilowatt-hours [1]. Group 3: Environmental Impact - The power station provides approximately 2.7 million kilowatts of bidirectional power regulation capacity, alleviating peak load pressure in the East China region and significantly enhancing renewable energy absorption [2]. - Annually, the station is expected to save about 140,000 tons of standard coal, which corresponds to a reduction of approximately 349,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions, supporting regional energy structure optimization and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [2]. Group 4: Broader Context - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," the State Grid Corporation has put into operation 78 pumped storage units, with a total operational capacity of 44.53 million kilowatts, providing reliable support for the construction of a new power system [2].

Core Insights - The world's highest pumped storage power station, the State Grid Xinyuan Jiangsu Jurong Pumped Storage Power Station, has commenced full-scale operations on October 28 [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The power station is located in Jurong City, Jiangsu Province, with a total installed capacity of 1.35 million kilowatts, consisting of six reversible pump-turbine units, each with a capacity of 225,000 kilowatts [4] - The annual electricity generation is projected to be 1.35 billion kilowatt-hours, sufficient to power approximately 360,000 households for a year [4] - The station provides around 2.7 million kilowatts of bidirectional power regulation capacity, saving approximately 140,000 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 349,000 tons annually [4] Group 2: Technical Achievements - The dam of the power station stands at 182.3 meters, making it the highest pumped storage dam in the world, with a water storage capacity of 17.07 million cubic meters, equivalent to 1.2 times the capacity of West Lake [6] - The project has set multiple industry records and achieved technological breakthroughs in areas such as seepage control membrane development and the installation of super-large valves [6] Group 3: National Context - As of now, the total installed capacity of pumped storage power stations in China has exceeded 62 million kilowatts, achieving the target set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The construction of the first integrated water-wind-solar base in the country, the Yalong River Basin, has also progressed, with two large hydropower stations, Mengdigou and Yagen, achieving synchronous river diversion [8][10]

Core Insights - GCL-Poly Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (GCL-Poly) reported a revenue of 7.935 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 762 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.78% [1] - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 677 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 46.39% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, GCL-Poly's net profit attributable to shareholders was 243 million yuan, up 24.43% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit for the same quarter was 213 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.37% [1] Business Development - GCL-Poly's growth is primarily driven by the rolling development of distributed photovoltaic and other renewable energy projects, alongside the expansion of energy service businesses such as electricity sales, green electricity, and virtual power plants [1] - The company has optimized the operational efficiency of its existing wind and cogeneration plants, contributing to year-on-year performance improvement [1] Strategic Focus - GCL-Poly is concentrating on two core areas: energy-saving services and trading services, achieving significant scale breakthroughs [2] - In the energy-saving sector, the company has developed distributed photovoltaic projects under the "Xing Zero Carbon" and "Xing Sunshine" brands, with a total installed capacity of 1,910.54 MW as of September 30 [2] Trading Services Expansion - GCL-Poly has enhanced its energy asset management and trading services, managing a total electricity sales volume of approximately 24.123 billion kWh and green electricity transactions of 786 million kWh in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company has successfully expanded its virtual power plant business across multiple provinces, with an adjustable load capacity of 835 MW as of September 30 [2] - GCL-Poly holds a leading position in the auxiliary service market in Jiangsu, with approximately 35% of the market share in adjustable load [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous addition of new policies supporting novel energy storage and the positive trend in the wind energy sector [1][6] - The electric power equipment sector shows strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 1.8%, a 3-month increase of 30.0%, and a 12-month increase of 38.4% [5] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, with silicon material prices stabilizing around 50,000 yuan per ton [6][7] - The wind energy sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and favorable policies, with an average bidding price for wind turbines rising to 2,325 yuan/kW [6][10] - The energy storage market is projected to reach a scale of 15GW by 2030 in Henan Province, with supportive measures being implemented [7][10] - Tesla's energy and storage business reported a revenue of $3.415 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 44% year-on-year increase [7] - The report notes advancements in solid-state battery technology and the growing demand for fast-charging LFP batteries [8][9] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report indicates that the supply-side reforms are gaining traction, with significant policy developments expected [6][7] - Companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. for silicon materials, and LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar for high-efficiency battery technologies [6] Wind Energy Sector - The Beijing Wind Energy Exhibition has set an annual installation target of no less than 120GW for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with offshore wind expected to contribute significantly [6][10] - Key companies to monitor include Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy [6] Energy Storage Sector - The report outlines Henan Province's plans for energy storage development, aiming for a 15GW capacity by 2030 [7] - Tesla's significant growth in energy storage deployment is highlighted, with a record 12.5GWh installed in Q3 2025 [7] Lithium Battery Sector - The report discusses the ongoing advancements in solid-state battery technology and the increasing production of fast-charging LFP batteries [8][9] - Companies such as CATL and A123 Systems are identified as key players in the fast-charging battery market [8]

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) has shown a positive performance, with a recent increase of 0.16% and a two-week cumulative rise of 4.39% as of October 22, 2025 [3][4] - The index tracks 50 listed companies involved in modern energy sectors, reflecting the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in this field [4] Market Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index rose by 0.29%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as China Nuclear Engineering (up 10.01%) and Petrochemical Machinery (up 8.24%) [3] - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 10.96% and a transaction value of 4.92 million yuan [3] Industry Developments - As of mid-2025, China's operational power storage projects reached a cumulative installed capacity of 164.3 GW, marking a 59% year-on-year increase, with new energy storage growing by 110% [4] - The number of charging infrastructure units nationwide reached 17.34 million, reflecting a 57.72% increase [4] - The new power generation capacity added from January to August 2025 grew by 64.40%, with power investment totaling 499.2 billion yuan, a 0.50% increase [4] Technological Advancements - The successful operation of a 3kW@4.5K helium refrigerator developed by Zhongke Qingneng supports the stable operation of the CRAFT facility, a key project in China's nuclear fusion research [3] - XINWANDA has launched a polymer solid-state battery with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, with plans to establish a 0.2 GWh production line by the end of 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the decline in electricity prices has significantly impacted the profitability and valuation of the electric utility industry this year, but the recent policy to stabilize electricity prices is expected to boost long-term contract price expectations for 2026 [1][2] - The "stabilize electricity price" policy was introduced during a meeting of state-owned enterprises, aiming to address the core contradictions in the electricity industry and alleviate concerns about weak long-term contract prices for 2026 [2] - The profitability of the thermal power industry is influenced by three main factors: coal prices, electricity prices, and utilization hours, with the current focus on stabilizing electricity prices to avoid excessive competition among power generation companies [2] Group 2 - High electricity load and strong demand are expected to support electricity prices, with significant increases in electricity load observed, such as a record high of 1.465 billion kilowatts in July, indicating manageable risks for future price declines [5][7] - The "anti-involution" policy and increased winter coal demand have led to a rise in coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 748 yuan per ton, marking an 8% month-on-month increase and a 23% rise from the year's low [9][10] - The establishment of capacity pricing mechanisms is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power assets, with the capacity price for coal power units set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year, which could further enhance the valuation of thermal power assets if implemented successfully [12][13] Group 3 - The electric power sector is currently in a critical verification period for recovery, benefiting from a market shift from growth to value, which presents a favorable configuration window for investments in green electricity ETFs [15]