格隆汇10月30日丨新奥能源(02688.HK)公布，截至2025年9月30日止九个月，集团天然气零售销售量录 得191.90亿立方米，同比增长2.0%。当中，工商业用户售气量同比录得2.5%增长至152.08亿立方米，而 民生用气销售量亦同比增长1.5%至38.04亿立方米。期内，集团之新开发工商业用户已装置日开口气量 为952.63万立方米，完成工程安装的新开发家庭用户为98.55万户。 期内，智家业务触达现有客户428万户，较上年同期增长1.61万户。集团业务覆盖逾一亿人口，拥有超 过3,000万家庭客户，业务增长潜力巨大。智家业务将继续凭藉多年积累的专业服务能力，抓住「两新 政策」及AI技术发展的机遇，围绕家庭客户本质需求，推进安全场景智慧产品升级、厨房场景服务模 式创新、e城e家平台建设，促进智家业务发展。 在「双碳」目标以及上游资源持续性宽松的背景下，促使天然气需求持续恢复。本集团将积极把握2025 年中国经济结构转型升级及高质量发展机遇，坚持以量达利的策略，通过精准客户认知、优质资源的有 效配置和精益的运营基础设施等举措，继续扩大天然气基本盘，确保天然气业务的稳健增长。 截至2025年9月30日 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese electricity market** and its ongoing reforms aimed at achieving a unified market structure by 2030, with significant progress expected in the next five years [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Structure and Progress**: The goal is to establish a unified electricity market to release market dividends. The current market remains relatively administrative, with progress slower than expected. The formation of the southern regional electricity market is a significant milestone [2]. - **Electricity Pricing Mechanism**: The pricing mechanism is gradually improving, with notable disparities between provinces. Some provinces, like Guangdong and Shandong, are leading in trading strategies, while others are just beginning to pilot spot trading. By 2025, solar and wind energy are expected to account for 36% of the competitive structure, surpassing coal's 24% [3][4]. - **Renewable Energy and Storage Policies**: Policies for renewable energy and storage are anticipated to advance significantly over the next five to ten years. The proportion of electricity entering the trading market from each province is expected to rise from 20%-50% to 70%-80% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [5]. - **Challenges in Market Construction**: The construction of a unified market faces challenges related to physical network structure and data scheduling capabilities. High-voltage projects are underway to address interconnection issues, while AI technology is expected to resolve data scheduling bottlenecks [6][7]. - **Future Development Trends**: The next five years will see accelerated progress in building a unified market, with improvements in physical infrastructure and data processing capabilities. This will facilitate the nationwide transmission of clean energy and optimize resource allocation [8]. Additional Important Content - **Carbon Market Coupling**: The electricity market and carbon market are not yet fully coupled, which affects pricing and trading mechanisms. Future efforts will focus on integrating these markets through policy and financial means [9][10]. - **Investment in Energy Storage**: The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, particularly on the power generation and grid sides. The new policies will allow storage to participate in local electricity markets, enhancing its profitability [15][17]. - **Impact on Coal-Fired Power Companies**: The establishment of a unified market will increase competition for coal-fired power companies due to the rising share of renewable energy. These companies will need to adapt by improving operational efficiency and exploring green transformation opportunities [18][19]. - **Government Policies and Market Dynamics**: The government aims to create a better business environment through market reforms, which will lead to optimal resource allocation and real-time supply-demand matching [20][21]. - **Regional Variations in Storage and Capacity Pricing**: Different provinces are at various stages of implementing capacity pricing policies, with some already in place in regions like Inner Mongolia and Shandong. The rollout of these policies is expected to expand nationwide in the coming years [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese electricity market, its reforms, challenges, and future outlook.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 22, with the power sector receiving significant positive news due to the commencement of the largest hydropower project in history, attracting capital attention towards infrastructure and power grid equipment [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which began construction on July 19, involves the establishment of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, generating power equivalent to three Three Gorges projects [1] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that due to the high difficulty of the Yarlung project and uncertainties related to interest rates, actual investment may exceed initial estimates, with a potential increase of 5%, and the investment in power transmission and transformation could reach between 189 billion to 315 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, focusing on capturing growth opportunities in new power system construction and power reform [2] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily distributed across the transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, communication cables, and distribution equipment sectors, with a combined weight of 88.9%, indicating strong representativeness [2]

Group 1 - The power equipment industry is undergoing significant transformation due to the implementation of Document No. 136, which continues to promote power reform [1] - The green certificate trading rules in Guangzhou have clarified that green certificates cannot be traded twice and established a pricing mechanism [1] - Sichuan aims to cover 5% of its maximum load with a power demand response mechanism [1] Group 2 - The supply-side clearing in the photovoltaic industry is steadily advancing, with silicon material companies reducing production loads and leading firms planning capacity replacements, indicating a potential recovery in industry prosperity [1] - In the battery sector, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with total planned capacity nearing 450 GWh, and the 2025 Solid-State Battery Summit focusing on engineering challenges, expecting to break the 1 GWh milestone by 2028 [1] Group 3 - The European electric vehicle market continues to grow, with sales in the top ten countries increasing month-on-month in May, showing a steady rise in penetration rates and positive overseas demand [1] - The overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, with prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells continuing to drop, while module prices remain stable amid intensified industry competition [1] - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector maintain high operating rates despite the competitive landscape [1] Group 4 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812) compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting quality listed companies in high-end manufacturing and automation from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index focuses on manufacturing sectors with high technological content and growth potential, reflecting the trend of China's manufacturing industry towards intelligence and automation [1]

Group 1 - The core idea of the reform is "full participation, market pricing," aimed at integrating both centralized and distributed renewable energy into the spot trading system [2] - The reform is a significant change in the electricity market and a key step in promoting energy transition [2] - The market's attention to related concept stocks is increasing as the electricity reform progresses [2] Group 2 - From June 1, 2025, five provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan) will officially start the long-cycle settlement trial operation of the new energy electricity spot market, marking a substantial phase in the market-oriented reform in the southern region [3] Group 3 - Zhejiang Energy is a notable company, a state-owned enterprise in Zhejiang with an installed capacity of over 40 million kilowatts, involved in electricity, oil and gas, and environmental protection [2] - Shenzhen Energy has shown outstanding performance in Guangdong's electricity reform, with a growing proportion of clean energy in its operations [4] - Southern Power Grid Energy Storage is a key player in the regional energy storage sector, covering five provinces [5] - Southern Power Grid Technology has a strong business foundation in power production equipment import, engineering design, and consulting, being the first company in the energy sector listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [6] - Guangdong Electric Power A is the largest state-controlled power listed company in Guangdong, involved in various energy investments and operations [7] - There is a market-favored company within the Southern Power Grid system, recognized as the first comprehensive energy stock controlled by a central enterprise, with its market potential gradually being released [8]

Group 1 - The Southern five provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan) are accelerating power reform, with a pilot program for spot trading set to begin in June 2025 [1][2] - The reform aims to establish a unified national electricity market, promote renewable energy consumption, and reduce electricity costs through market mechanisms [2][4] - The pilot phase will allow full market entry for renewable energy, with a focus on accurate wind power forecasting and real-time system coordination [4][6] Group 2 - Previous reforms in Sichuan and Chongqing led to significant stock price increases, with Leshan Electric rising over 150% and Chongqing Three Gorges A soaring more than 150% [6] - The market anticipates that the Southern five provinces' joint reform could create new investment opportunities and challenges in the capital market [6] - Key related stocks include China Nuclear Power, Huaneng International, Longyuan Power, and Three Gorges Energy, with respective market capitalizations of 189.84 billion, 108.32 billion, 139.94 billion, and 123.06 billion [7][8][9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that electricity reform is a key engine driving energy transition and high-quality economic and social development in the context of global climate change and China's "dual carbon" goals [1] - The electricity reform initiated in 2015 focuses on strengthening regulation of grid companies, determining transmission and distribution prices, and allowing direct transactions between power generation companies and electricity users [2] - By 2024, the market-based trading volume of electricity is expected to grow from 1.1 trillion kWh in 2016 to 6.2 trillion kWh, increasing its share of total electricity consumption from 17% to 63% [4] Group 2 - The electricity reform in China began in the 1980s and 1990s, evolving through multiple stages towards separation of government and enterprises, regulation and monitoring, and separation of generation and grid [5] - Several potential companies related to electricity reform have been identified, including companies focused on wind and solar power, as well as those benefiting from comprehensive energy service development [7] - A specific company in Guangdong, recognized as a leader in electricity reform, is currently experiencing significant institutional interest and is positioned for a potential upward trend in stock performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - In April, the national electricity consumption increased by 4.7%, with a cumulative growth of 3.1% from January to April [8][14]. - The electricity demand from the first and third industries shows resilience, while the second industry experiences weakness [14]. - The supply side saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in electricity generation in April, with significant growth in renewable energy sources [30][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - From January to April, the total electricity consumption reached 31,566 billion kWh, with April alone accounting for 7,721 billion kWh [8]. - The first industry saw a 10.0% increase in electricity consumption, the second industry grew by 2.3%, and the third industry increased by 6.0% [14][13]. - In April, the first, second, and third industries' electricity consumption growth rates were 13.8%, 3.0%, and 9.0%, respectively, while residential electricity consumption grew by 7.0% [14]. Supply Side - In April, the total electricity generation was 7,111 billion kWh, marking a 0.9% year-on-year increase [30]. - The growth rates for different energy sources in April were as follows: wind power increased by 12.7%, solar power by 16.7%, nuclear power by 12.4%, while hydropower decreased by 6.5% and thermal power fell by 2.3% [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocation to the electricity sector due to favorable fundamentals and market catalysts as summer approaches [53]. - For thermal power, the report highlights the potential for improved profitability due to falling coal prices, recommending companies like Huadian International and Huaneng International [55]. - In the green energy sector, the report recommends focusing on wind power operators and undervalued green energy stocks, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [55]. - For hydropower and nuclear power, the report suggests monitoring companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [55].

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,862.19, down 0.27% on the day and down 3.79% year-to-date [4][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,393.70, down 0.62% on the day and down 11.87% year-to-date [4][5] - The Northbound funds recorded a net sell of 77.65 billion, with a cumulative net sell of 17.43 billion year-to-date [6] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The mechanical sector benefits from cyclical recovery, while the power equipment sector benefits from electricity reforms [13] - The pharmaceutical sector is supported by policy catalysts and overseas interest [13] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.17% to close at 17,090.23, with a year-to-date increase of 0.25% [4][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 563.1 billion [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company focuses on traditional business stability while expanding into hydrogen and flexible power generation, aiming for growth in these areas [23] - The strategy includes leveraging high dividend yields and exploring new business opportunities to counteract declining ARPU values [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic factors are primarily responsible for revenue growth slowdown, with market competition also playing a role [17] - The outlook remains cautious due to potential risks in capital expenditure and the pace of 5G commercialization [17] Other Important Information - The CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year in July, driven by both food and non-food items, indicating inflationary pressures [19] - The company anticipates continued focus on high dividend-paying stocks and sectors with strong earnings growth potential [21] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the key risks facing the telecommunications sector? - The main risks include capital expenditures falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected progress in the 5G industry chain, and challenges in AI application deployment [17] Question: How does the company plan to address declining ARPU values? - The company aims to stimulate new demand through successful transformation and new business initiatives [17] Question: What is the outlook for the hydrogen energy sector? - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the hydrogen sector, supported by its early investments and technological advancements [23]