国盛证券（002670）认为，1)2025年各地年度长协电价不同程度调降，火电明年容量电价将全面提升， 绿电经历全面市场化后电价风险逐步释出，"反内卷"明确"稳电价"，电价下行最大压力时期即将过去。 2)火电三季度业绩持续向上，煤价反弹"稳电价"预期提升。3)水电秋汛来水改善，叠加风格切换，重视 配置。4)储能政策频出，容量补偿机制尚有完善空间，重视调节性电源价值，叠加三季度业绩催化预 期。 信达证券（601059）认为，电改持续深化，稀缺稳定价值凸显，资产整合或存投资机遇。煤电正步入大 规模投运潮，叠加用电需求疲弱电力电量供需格局转宽松。电力供需格局宽松是2022—2024年现货市场 价格下行的直接原因，而其后又隐含能源价格回落和新能源装机持续高增两点因素。当前我国电力交易 结构依然以中长期交易为主，而现货价格波动对中长期交易撮合谈判存在引导。此外，"年度-月度-现 货"的电量占比格局跟随电力供需格局情况持续调整。展望下半年及2026年，电力供需格局有望进一步 宽松，叠加各地地方政府存在降电价诉求，预计电价仍将面临下行压力，同时当电价下行至接近下浮 20%的底部时，电价将获得支撑，而2025年中长期电价高上 ...

本周核心观点：1）江苏广东发布2026年电力市场交易通知。近日，江苏、广东等地发布2026年电力市 场交易通知，明确2026年年度交易安排，其中，广东：2026年年度交易分阶段展开，12月5日至12月22 日，每日滚动开展年度双边协商交易、年度集中竞争交易、年度挂牌交易、年度绿电双边协商交易。江 苏：年度协商交易安排在12月12、15、16日，年度挂牌交易安排在12月11、17日，年度竞价交易安排在 12月11、17日。2）攀西特高压交流工程核准。根据国家和四川省"十四五"电力发展规划，为满足攀西 地区清洁能源基地电力送出需求，保障成都、川南负荷中心电力供应，进一步优化川南500千伏电网结 构，同意建设攀西特高压交流工程。工程总投资2317662万元，其中资本金463533万元，占总投资的 20%，由国网四川省电力公司出资，其余资金通过银行贷款解决。 行业核心数据跟踪：电价：2025年11月全国平均电网代购电价同比下降2%环比+2.8%。煤价：截至 2025/12/05，动力煤秦皇岛5500卡平仓价785元/吨，周环比下跌31元。水情：截至2025/12/05，三峡水库 站水位172.84米，2021、202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electricity market is entering a new phase with the implementation of Document No. 136, leading to a significant influx of renewable energy projects into the market, resulting in differentiated bidding outcomes due to regional policy variations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The electricity market has achieved comprehensive coverage, with supply and demand trends becoming more relaxed, significantly impacting long-term contracts [1] - The electricity price is expected to face downward pressure, but support is anticipated when prices approach a 20% drop from the bottom [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Asset consolidation is identified as a key development theme during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, presenting potential investment opportunities [1] - The Electric Grid ETF (561380) has seen a rise of over 1.2% and a net inflow of over 230 million yuan in the past 20 days, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 3: Index Information - The Electric Grid ETF tracks the Hang Seng A-Share Electric Grid Equipment Index (HSCAUPG), which selects listed companies primarily engaged in electric grid equipment-related businesses to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a downward trend on December 3, with the power sector showing resilience as certain ETFs related to clean energy and public utilities posted gains, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the energy sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, while the public utility ETF (159301) rose by 0.52% and the green energy ETF (562550) increased by 0.27% [1] - Key power stocks such as Min Energy, Jingneng Power, and others saw collective gains, reflecting investor interest in the sector despite broader market declines [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The National Energy Administration plans to establish seven standardized technical organizations focusing on various aspects of energy management, including greenhouse gas emissions and hydrogen energy, aimed at promoting innovation in the energy industry [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration will release guidelines to ensure the reasonable consumption of 200 million kilowatts of new energy annually by 2030, reinforcing the commitment to large-scale development of renewable energy [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Guosheng Securities recommends focusing on green power operators with advantageous resource locations, high project development efficiency, and low financing costs, particularly highlighting the relative advantages of offshore wind energy [1] - The report also suggests paying attention to flexible resources like thermal power, as well as investment opportunities in energy storage and virtual power plants [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power sector, including 大唐发电, 建投能源, 川投能源, 长江电力, and 中国广核, all of which are recommended for investment [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the power sector is entering a new phase of development, with fire power generation expected to benefit from capacity pricing and auxiliary services, leading to improved profitability and stability [4][5]. - Hydropower is projected to see growth driven by decreasing financial costs and increased installed capacity, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - Nuclear power is entering a phase of active development, with a significant increase in approved and under-construction capacity expected in the coming years [4]. - The renewable energy sector faces challenges with pricing pressures but has potential for growth through integration with green hydrogen and other technologies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The public utility sector index increased by 4.9% from January to October 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 16.0% [11]. - Fire power generation saw a profit increase of 16.8%, while nuclear and wind power faced profit declines of 12.4% and 16.4%, respectively [21]. 2. Fire Power - Fire power generation is transitioning to a more stable and regulated model, with expected capacity growth and improved profitability due to new pricing mechanisms [25]. - The average utilization hours for fire power are projected to decrease to around 3500 hours by 2030, reflecting a shift in operational dynamics [30]. 3. Hydropower - Hydropower generation is expected to benefit from improved water conditions and financial efficiencies, with long-term growth potential [4]. - The report highlights that financial costs are decreasing, and depreciation periods are expiring, contributing to the sector's attractiveness [4]. 4. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is set for significant growth, with a focus on the approval of new units and advancements in fourth-generation technology [4]. - The report notes that the approved capacity for nuclear power is expected to exceed operational capacity by 107% in the coming years [4]. 5. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector is facing challenges with pricing, as competitive pricing mechanisms are being introduced, potentially impacting profitability [5]. - The report suggests that integrating renewable energy with technologies like green hydrogen could open new growth avenues [5]. 6. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cost advantages in the renewable energy sector, such as 龙源电力 and 三峡能源 [5]. - It also suggests that the investment strategy should consider the stability of fire power profitability and the attractive dividend yields of hydropower companies in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a supply-demand pattern of "abundant electricity generation, tight electricity supply" is expected, with comprehensive electricity prices likely to stabilize [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Pricing - From January to November 2025, the overall performance of dividend-style sectors has been poor, while electricity demand has maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption in China reaching 8.62 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - The price of thermal coal has bottomed out and is expected to drive a rebound in electricity prices. From the end of 2023 to mid-2025, thermal coal prices have been on a downward trend, but began to rebound in July 2025, with the monthly clearing price in Jiangsu's electricity market reaching 395.60 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 82.80 yuan per megawatt-hour [3]. Group 2: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower operations remain stable, with major river basin water levels holding steady. The net interest margin for hydropower has increased by 69 basis points compared to the average from May 2023 to April 2024, indicating long-term allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The marketization ratio of nuclear power is gradually increasing, with the marketization electricity volume cap for Lingao and Yangjiang nuclear power plants set at 31.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, a 14.3% increase from 2025. The impact of natural uranium price fluctuations on operators is minimal [5]. Group 3: Green Energy and Grid Equipment - The implementation of policy uncertainties regarding green electricity income has been established, with market reforms entering a deeper phase. The wind power tax rebate has been reduced, indicating that the policy bottom has been reached [6]. - Investment in domestic grid equipment shows structural differentiation, with cumulative procurement of State Grid transmission and transformation equipment reaching 78.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The cumulative procurement for ultra-high voltage equipment reached 20.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [7].

Group 1 - New Natural Gas Retail Sales Volume reached 19.19 billion cubic meters for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - Sales volume for industrial and commercial users increased by 2.5% to 15.21 billion cubic meters, while residential gas sales grew by 1.5% to 3.80 billion cubic meters [1] - The company has installed a daily gas supply capacity of 9.53 million cubic meters for newly developed industrial and commercial users, and completed installations for 985,500 new residential users [1] Group 2 - The company has launched 378 energy projects, with energy sales reaching 28.99 billion kilowatt-hours during the period [1] - The company aims to leverage the opportunities presented by China's economic transformation and high-quality development, focusing on expanding its natural gas base and ensuring steady growth [1] - The smart home business has reached 4.28 million existing customers, an increase of 16,100 compared to the same period last year, with a significant growth potential as the business covers over 100 million people and more than 30 million households [2] Group 3 - The smart home business will continue to capitalize on opportunities from new policies and AI technology development, focusing on upgrading safety scenario smart products and innovating kitchen service models [2] - The company is committed to promoting the development of its smart home business by addressing the essential needs of family customers [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese electricity market** and its ongoing reforms aimed at achieving a unified market structure by 2030, with significant progress expected in the next five years [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Structure and Progress**: The goal is to establish a unified electricity market to release market dividends. The current market remains relatively administrative, with progress slower than expected. The formation of the southern regional electricity market is a significant milestone [2]. - **Electricity Pricing Mechanism**: The pricing mechanism is gradually improving, with notable disparities between provinces. Some provinces, like Guangdong and Shandong, are leading in trading strategies, while others are just beginning to pilot spot trading. By 2025, solar and wind energy are expected to account for 36% of the competitive structure, surpassing coal's 24% [3][4]. - **Renewable Energy and Storage Policies**: Policies for renewable energy and storage are anticipated to advance significantly over the next five to ten years. The proportion of electricity entering the trading market from each province is expected to rise from 20%-50% to 70%-80% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [5]. - **Challenges in Market Construction**: The construction of a unified market faces challenges related to physical network structure and data scheduling capabilities. High-voltage projects are underway to address interconnection issues, while AI technology is expected to resolve data scheduling bottlenecks [6][7]. - **Future Development Trends**: The next five years will see accelerated progress in building a unified market, with improvements in physical infrastructure and data processing capabilities. This will facilitate the nationwide transmission of clean energy and optimize resource allocation [8]. Additional Important Content - **Carbon Market Coupling**: The electricity market and carbon market are not yet fully coupled, which affects pricing and trading mechanisms. Future efforts will focus on integrating these markets through policy and financial means [9][10]. - **Investment in Energy Storage**: The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, particularly on the power generation and grid sides. The new policies will allow storage to participate in local electricity markets, enhancing its profitability [15][17]. - **Impact on Coal-Fired Power Companies**: The establishment of a unified market will increase competition for coal-fired power companies due to the rising share of renewable energy. These companies will need to adapt by improving operational efficiency and exploring green transformation opportunities [18][19]. - **Government Policies and Market Dynamics**: The government aims to create a better business environment through market reforms, which will lead to optimal resource allocation and real-time supply-demand matching [20][21]. - **Regional Variations in Storage and Capacity Pricing**: Different provinces are at various stages of implementing capacity pricing policies, with some already in place in regions like Inner Mongolia and Shandong. The rollout of these policies is expected to expand nationwide in the coming years [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese electricity market, its reforms, challenges, and future outlook.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 22, with the power sector receiving significant positive news due to the commencement of the largest hydropower project in history, attracting capital attention towards infrastructure and power grid equipment [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which began construction on July 19, involves the establishment of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, generating power equivalent to three Three Gorges projects [1] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that due to the high difficulty of the Yarlung project and uncertainties related to interest rates, actual investment may exceed initial estimates, with a potential increase of 5%, and the investment in power transmission and transformation could reach between 189 billion to 315 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, focusing on capturing growth opportunities in new power system construction and power reform [2] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily distributed across the transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, communication cables, and distribution equipment sectors, with a combined weight of 88.9%, indicating strong representativeness [2]

Group 1 - The power equipment industry is undergoing significant transformation due to the implementation of Document No. 136, which continues to promote power reform [1] - The green certificate trading rules in Guangzhou have clarified that green certificates cannot be traded twice and established a pricing mechanism [1] - Sichuan aims to cover 5% of its maximum load with a power demand response mechanism [1] Group 2 - The supply-side clearing in the photovoltaic industry is steadily advancing, with silicon material companies reducing production loads and leading firms planning capacity replacements, indicating a potential recovery in industry prosperity [1] - In the battery sector, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with total planned capacity nearing 450 GWh, and the 2025 Solid-State Battery Summit focusing on engineering challenges, expecting to break the 1 GWh milestone by 2028 [1] Group 3 - The European electric vehicle market continues to grow, with sales in the top ten countries increasing month-on-month in May, showing a steady rise in penetration rates and positive overseas demand [1] - The overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, with prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells continuing to drop, while module prices remain stable amid intensified industry competition [1] - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector maintain high operating rates despite the competitive landscape [1] Group 4 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812) compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting quality listed companies in high-end manufacturing and automation from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index focuses on manufacturing sectors with high technological content and growth potential, reflecting the trend of China's manufacturing industry towards intelligence and automation [1]