作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 | | | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 231.48 4.95 229.11 2.37 235.74 -4.26 高炉产能利用率（%） 91.32 -0.44 91.60 -0.28 88.54 2.78 表观需求量 247.13 -13.16 259.94 -12.81 278.17 -31.04 钢联建材成交周均值 9.64 -1.36 12.13 -2.49 13.93 -4.29 总库存 604.22 -15.65 702.33 -98.11 784.10 -179.88 厂内库存 187.76 2.77 193.73 -5.97 202.85 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱， 高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏 暖，短期走势延续震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局尚可，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that macro - level benefits have been realized, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - The steel price is under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand pattern of rebar. Although the supply has contracted, it lacks sustainability, and the demand has weakened more significantly. Under the game of long and short factors, the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, in the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, based on the fact that macro - level benefits have been realized and steel prices are oscillating [2]. Market Driving Logic - The Sino - US trade negotiation has made substantial progress, and market sentiment has improved, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakening. Supply contraction lacks sustainability, demand is weakening more significantly, and inventory has started to accumulate. The demand for rebar will seasonally decline, and the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, so the steel price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [3].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 223.53 -9.85 229.11 -5.58 230.61 -7.08 高炉产能利用率（%） 92.09 0.09 91.60 0.49 87.67 4.42 表观需求量 213.90 -77.81 259.94 -46.04 261.88 -47.98 钢联建材成交周均值 10.55 -0.68 12.13 -1.58 13.23 -2.68 总库存 653.63 9.63 702.33 -48.70 883.27 -229.64 厂内库存 188.27 15.11 193.73 -5.46 222.62 -34.35 社会库存 465.36 -5.48 508.60 -43.24 660.65 -195.29 螺纹钢周度数据（20250509） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价弱势寻底 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，螺纹钢产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但假期因素扰动下需求走弱 更加明显，周度表需环比大降，继而导致库存开始增加，关注持续性，且下游行业并未改善，需求 仍会季节性走弱，继续拖累螺纹基本面，钢价仍将承压弱势震荡寻底，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the unimproved supply - demand pattern of rebar, with the supply remaining at a relatively high level and the demand having limited sustainability [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Although there are positive domestic and foreign macro factors, the futures price of steel products has fallen after rising. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The pre - holiday restocking led to a significant increase in weekly apparent demand, but the situation of major downstream industries has not improved, and the demand is not sustainable. On the contrary, the supply remains at a relatively high level, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the production and sales data of rebar released by SteelHome today [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].