投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱，建筑钢厂转产，螺纹产量环比下降并降至低位，供应压力有所缓解；而 螺纹需求延续季节性走弱，周度表需走弱，高频成交低迷，弱势需求承压钢价。总之，螺纹供需格 局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is downward, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillatory steel prices. There are also explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2] Market Driving Logic - The strong rebound of coking coal boosts the market, and the ferrous metals rise collectively. The supply - demand pattern of rebar changes little. The weekly output decreases but remains at a relatively high level this year with weak sustainability, and the supply is expected to run stably. The weekly apparent demand rebounds slightly, while the high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and both are at low levels in the same period in recent years. There is still a high possibility of seasonal weakening in the future, and the demand side is weak, dragging down the fundamentals of rebar. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, which gives elasticity to steel prices [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 利空因素发酵，钢价承压走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期钢材现货弱稳运行，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，周产量环比下降，但依旧是年内相对高 位，供应压力未缓解；而周度表需有所增加，而高频成交维持低位，需求端表现平稳，但季节性走 弱预期未退，螺纹基本面未见改善，叠加钢铁关税升级扰动，钢价继续承压偏弱运行，关注需求表 现情况。 （ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Supply has a slight contraction but low sustainability, demand is stable with a seasonal weakening expectation, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices continue to be under pressure. With inventory at a low level, short - term negative factors dominate, and steel prices will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to demand changes [2]. 3. Summary by Category Supply - Rebar weekly production was 225.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.97 tons. Supply has contracted but remains at a high level this year. Due to good steel profits, production cuts are unlikely to continue, and the supply contraction is limited [1][2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points [1]. Demand - Rebar weekly apparent demand was 248.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 tons. High - frequency transactions were sluggish. Both are at low levels in recent years and will seasonally weaken later. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which easily puts pressure on steel prices [1][2]. - The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.36, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 [1]. Inventory - Total inventory was 581.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.17 tons, a decrease of 121.28 tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 192.62 tons compared with the same period. Factory inventory was 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 tons. Social inventory was 394.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.87 tons [1].

作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 | | | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 231.48 4.95 229.11 2.37 235.74 -4.26 高炉产能利用率（%） 91.32 -0.44 91.60 -0.28 88.54 2.78 表观需求量 247.13 -13.16 259.94 -12.81 278.17 -31.04 钢联建材成交周均值 9.64 -1.36 12.13 -2.49 13.93 -4.29 总库存 604.22 -15.65 702.33 -98.11 784.10 -179.88 厂内库存 187.76 2.77 193.73 -5.97 202.85 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱， 高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏 暖，短期走势延续震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局尚可，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that macro - level benefits have been realized, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - The steel price is under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand pattern of rebar. Although the supply has contracted, it lacks sustainability, and the demand has weakened more significantly. Under the game of long and short factors, the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, in the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, based on the fact that macro - level benefits have been realized and steel prices are oscillating [2]. Market Driving Logic - The Sino - US trade negotiation has made substantial progress, and market sentiment has improved, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakening. Supply contraction lacks sustainability, demand is weakening more significantly, and inventory has started to accumulate. The demand for rebar will seasonally decline, and the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, so the steel price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [3].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 223.53 -9.85 229.11 -5.58 230.61 -7.08 高炉产能利用率（%） 92.09 0.09 91.60 0.49 87.67 4.42 表观需求量 213.90 -77.81 259.94 -46.04 261.88 -47.98 钢联建材成交周均值 10.55 -0.68 12.13 -1.58 13.23 -2.68 总库存 653.63 9.63 702.33 -48.70 883.27 -229.64 厂内库存 188.27 15.11 193.73 -5.46 222.62 -34.35 社会库存 465.36 -5.48 508.60 -43.24 660.65 -195.29 螺纹钢周度数据（20250509） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价弱势寻底 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，螺纹钢产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但假期因素扰动下需求走弱 更加明显，周度表需环比大降，继而导致库存开始增加，关注持续性，且下游行业并未改善，需求 仍会季节性走弱，继续拖累螺纹基本面，钢价仍将承压弱势震荡寻底，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the unimproved supply - demand pattern of rebar, with the supply remaining at a relatively high level and the demand having limited sustainability [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Although there are positive domestic and foreign macro factors, the futures price of steel products has fallen after rising. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The pre - holiday restocking led to a significant increase in weekly apparent demand, but the situation of major downstream industries has not improved, and the demand is not sustainable. On the contrary, the supply remains at a relatively high level, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the production and sales data of rebar released by SteelHome today [3]