Our rate should be the lowest rates in the world because all these countries that you see, you know, with low rates, many of them are low because of us because they suck so much money out of us. But that's not happening anymore. We should have the lowest rates in the world.And without us, none of them really exist as an economy. >> It's President Trump speaking yesterday after the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the Fed's third cut in a row. Joining us now with cha ...

And if I could follow up on the outlook there, it it it seems like with the additional GDP growth coupled with easing inflation and a fairly steady unemployment rate, this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that. Is this an early bet on AI.Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there. What's what's driving that. >> So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast.And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside f ...

And if I could follow up on the outlook there, it it it seems like with the additional GDP growth coupled with easing inflation and a fairly steady unemployment rate, this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that. Is this an early bet on AI.Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there. What's what's driving that. >> So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast.And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside f ...

with us now at Post 9. First on CNBC, chief economist of the Mastercard Economic [music] Institute, Michelle Meyer. Great to have you back at Post 9.So, the outlook for the US is is even better than this year. >> That's what our expectation is. Yeah.Because when you think about this year, it was a story of uncertainty. It was a story of headlines. Um it was a story of change.And I think in 2026, it's going to be a story of an economy that's adapting, an economy that's proven to be much more dynamic. So, we' ...

All right, why don't we start off with your uh forecast for the average price for both WTI and Brent coming up in the new year. It's kind of pretty much where we're at right now. Why do you see things pretty much being flat on average.>> So, we just to be clear, we have a $60 a barrel um brand forecast and $57 a barrel WTI forecast average for next year. And uh we think prices will likely be a little weaker in the first half of next year and maybe uh things can improve into the second half. Um now remember ...

Economic Overview - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a "very strong" holiday shopping season and predicted a robust end to the year for the U.S. economy [1] - The economy has outperformed expectations with a reported 4% GDP growth in several quarters, and a forecast of 3% real GDP growth for the year despite challenges such as the Schumer shutdown [2] GDP Performance - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a contraction of 0.6% year-over-year in GDP for the first quarter of 2025, followed by a significant increase of 3.8% in the second quarter [2] - Initial estimates for third-quarter economic results are set to be published on December 23, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projecting an annual GDP growth of 3.5% for that quarter [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, remains pessimistic, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which recorded a score of 53.3 in December. This reflects a 4.5% increase from November but a 28% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]

For Q3 FY26, the central bank raised its growth estimate to 7.0% from 6.4%. The forecast for Q4 FY26 was also raised to 6.5% from 6.2%. Similarly, the projection for Q1 FY27 was raised to 6.7% from 6.4%, while growth for Q2 FY27 was projected at 6.8%.The revisions follow stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the September quarter. India's economy sparkled in the July-September period as it posted six-quarter high 8.2% growth, riding a surge in consumer demand fuelled by the reduction in goods and services t ...

He thinks that AI and robotics can really solve this debt situation by ultimately ramping up productivity that could then impact real GDP growth. What I'm skeptical about here is that he says that this timeline is about 3 years from now. But what we're hearing from these companies is that this timeline, we're waiting to see this all kind of come to fruition.>> When you think about the the debt picture, what helps obviously is is faster GDP growth. If you look at 2026, the AI capex spent is definitely suppor ...

Core Insights - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty reached all-time highs due to positive investor sentiment following India's GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2 FY26, marking the fastest growth in six quarters [1][4] Market Performance - The BSE Sensex increased by 452.35 points to a record high of 86,159.02, while the NSE Nifty rose by 122.85 points to a lifetime high of 26,325.80 [2][3] - Key gainers included Adani Ports, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, State Bank of India, and Kotak Mahindra Bank, while laggards were ITC, Bajaj Finance, Titan, and Tech Mahindra [4] Economic Context - The 8.2% GDP growth in July-September was attributed to front-loading of production ahead of GST rate cuts, which boosted consumption and mitigated the effects of high US tariffs [4] - Analysts suggest that new record highs for the Nifty may become the norm, supported by broad-based sectoral strength [5] Investment Activity - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹3,795.72 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth ₹4,148.48 crore [6] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.62% to $63.39 per barrel, indicating potential implications for sectors sensitive to oil prices [6]

Core Insights - The Indian economy grew at 8.2% in the second quarter of FY26, surpassing the RBI's projection of 6.8%, marking the fastest growth in six quarters [5][8] - Retail inflation dropped to 0.25% in October, the lowest since 2015, complicating the RBI's monetary policy decisions [5][8] - A poll of 20 economists showed 12 expect a 25 basis points rate cut to 5.25%, while 8 anticipate the rate will remain unchanged [8] Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth for the second quarter was recorded at 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8% the previous year [5][8] - Economists are cautious about future growth, with expectations of a slowdown in the second half of FY26 [7][8] Inflation Forecast - The RBI has revised its full-year FY26 inflation estimate down to 2.6% from 4.2% in February, with forecasts of 4% in Q4 FY26 and 4.5% in Q1 FY27 [6][8] - Current estimates suggest inflation could undershoot the RBI's forecast by 50-60 basis points, potentially supporting a rate cut in December [7][8] Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBI has cut the policy rate by 100 basis points since February, maintaining a pause since August, while rates on outstanding loans have decreased by 54 basis points [8] - Economists express mixed views on the upcoming RBI rate decision, with some indicating a need for caution due to low nominal growth numbers [7][8]