Joining us now, Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carile. Jason, great to have you on to to kind of put a light on on this data. Um, so this is something just to uh kind of get the the the procedural stuff out there. This is uh these indicators are something that you have maintained for a while and you've tried to kind of knit them to the the publicly available data.>> Yeah, that's right. So the for the last 15 years we take portfolio company data as you mentioned 277 companie ...

AI's Impact on US Economy - AI spending alone accounts for 40% of US GDP growth this year, with second and third-order effects further boosting the economy [1] - 80% of the gains in the US stock market this year are attributed to AI plays [2] - The US bond market implicitly bets on a significant productivity miracle driven by AI, justifying current debt and deficit levels [4] Consumer Spending & Wealth Distribution - The top 10% of US households own nearly 90% of US stocks and drive the majority of consumer spending [2] - The top 10% of consumers have an unprecedented share of overall consumer spending in the US this year [2] Capital Flows & Dollar Weakness - The American stock market attracted nearly $300 billion in flows even in a tough second quarter [7] - Dollar weakness is attributed to hedging by foreign investors bringing capital into America, correcting for an overvalued dollar at the beginning of the year [6][7] Productivity & Future Expectations - US market implicitly bets on a 05%-1% increase in productivity due to increased AI adoption [11][12] - Productivity growth began picking up after the pandemic, with increased focus on cost efficiencies [11] Global Market Performance - Outside of the top seven stocks, European stocks have outperformed American stocks this decade [8] - The bet on AI needs to pay off for America, as the rest of the world has been outperforming [9]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown could negatively impact the US economy, potentially leading to a decrease in GDP and growth, as well as affecting American workers [1][2]. Economic Impact - Past government shutdowns have had minimal economic impact, but this shutdown, which began recently, may be different due to its prolonged nature [2][4]. - Economists warn that a lengthy shutdown could result in billions being shaved off quarterly GDP and could disrupt the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [11]. Political Dynamics - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributes the shutdown to Democratic leadership's failure to provide solutions, labeling them as weak and disorganized [3][4]. - Bessent dismissed President Trump's threats to fire federal workers as mere "talking points" [3]. Effects on Federal Employees - Federal employees are facing immediate consequences, including furloughs and job security concerns, particularly in agencies like the CDC and Social Security Administration [9]. - The shutdown is causing confusion and politically charged communications among federal workers [9]. Market Reactions - Financial markets are showing signs of nervousness, with stock prices dipping, bond yields decreasing, and gold prices rising as investors seek safe havens [10]. - Historical data suggests that while shutdowns typically have a short-lived impact on markets, the current situation is occurring at a sensitive time [10]. Data Release Delays - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has indicated that the September jobs report will not be released if the shutdown continues, with potential delays for mid-October inflation figures as well [10].

Inflation Projections - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised downwards its FY26 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projection by 50 basis points to 2.6%, which is a significant 160 basis point cut from earlier projections made in April [2][3] - The report suggests that actual inflation for both FY26 and FY27 could be much lower than the RBI's revised estimates due to favorable domestic conditions [2][3] Economic Growth Estimates - The RBI has also increased its estimate for real GDP growth for FY26 to 6.8% [3] - For FY27, the inflation projection is set at 4.5% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged, which is seen as a logical move given the current global economic uncertainties [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy communication in shaping expectations and maintaining clarity in forward guidance [4] Future Rate Cuts - The report indicates that the RBI may be open to future rate cuts due to low inflation forecasts and recent downward adjustments in growth estimates, although the timing of such cuts remains uncertain [5] Domestic Financial System - The MPC's decision reflects a dynamic approach that goes beyond traditional monetary policy, supported by comfortable liquidity conditions and a stable external sector despite trade uncertainties [6] - The domestic financial system is expected to benefit from forward-looking reforms aimed at enhancing India's global positioning and reinforcing its resilient economic ecosystem [6]

How worried should we be about a potential government shutdown once we blow through the deadline tomorrow at midnight. Democrats in the Senate, they're filibustering the Republican bud budget bill. They want to extend the health insurance subsidies and the Affordable Care Act, reverse some of the president's recent Medicaid cuts.So far, it sounds like that both sides are pretty intransigent. And if you look at the predictions market, they're currently assigning a roughly 75% odds of a shutdown by Wednesday. ...

How worried should we be about a potential government shutdown once we blow through the deadline tomorrow at midnight. Democrats in the Senate, they're filibustering the Republican bud budget bill. They want to extend the health insurance subsidies and the Affordable Care Act, reverse some of the president's recent Medicaid cuts.So far, it sounds like that both sides are pretty intransigent. And if you look at the predictions market, they're currently assigning a roughly 75% odds of a shutdown by Wednesday. ...

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - A government shutdown typically reduces GDP growth by approximately 0.25 percentage points per week, potentially leading to a full percentage point reduction in fourth quarter growth if the shutdown lasts four weeks [4] - A three-week shutdown, while significant, may not have a lasting impact on the overall economic performance of the fourth quarter, as there may be opportunities to recover losses once operations resume [5][6] Data Collection and Labor Market Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend all operations and data collection during a government shutdown, which will limit the availability of key economic data [1][10] - In the absence of federal data, alternative datasets, such as ADP data, will become increasingly important for understanding labor market conditions [2][3] - A potential reduction in the number of employees at the Department of Labor during a shutdown could lead to significant disruptions in data collection, particularly affecting labor surveys for October [11][13] Federal Reserve and Economic Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in making informed decisions due to the lack of official statistics during a government shutdown, which complicates their communication and policy formulation [7][8] - The absence of preferred inflation measures and unemployment statistics could hinder the Fed's ability to assess the balance of labor supply and demand [8]

Government Shutdown Risk - A US government shutdown is looming within 36 hours, with congressional leaders meeting with the President to seek a resolution [2] - The mood in Washington DC suggests a shutdown is likely, although the meeting could be a turning point [3] - Disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over healthcare provisions, specifically Affordable Care Act premium tax credits impacting 20 million Americans, are a key sticking point [4] Economic Impact - A government shutdown would halt the release of economic reports, including the widely watched jobs number [5] - Longer shutdowns extending into October would hinder data collection for key economic indicators like PPI, CPI, and jobs data, potentially impacting data accuracy [7][8] - Moody's predicts each week of a shutdown would shave 0.1% off quarterly GDP growth [9] Impact on Federal Workers - Millions of federal government workers and contractors face potential pay delays or non-payment during a shutdown [9] - While federal workers typically receive back pay, federal contractors may not, impacting businesses [10] - Mass layoffs of federal employees could begin if a government shutdown starts on Tuesday at midnight [10]

makes sense of this economy. Like I just mentioned in the intro, you had GDP uh I think surprise a lot of folks out there almost uh rise 4%. You got a labor market uh not uh breaking 100,000 non-farm payroll increases anymore.How do you see things uh as we stand here right now. >> President Trump and Secretary Bess and Brian are certainly not surprised by the very strong year 4% growth in the second quarter, which was the president's first full quarter in office. The key thing about the labor market is we k ...

Economic Data Summary - Q2 GDP was revised up from +3.3% to +3.8%, marking the strongest quarter of growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Consumption saw a significant increase from +1.6% to +2.5%, indicating a stronger appetite among U.S. consumers [3] - The Price Index increased by 10 basis points, with headline at +2.1% and core at +2.6% [3] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K, down 17K from estimates and 14K from the previous week, reaching the lowest level since mid-summer [4] - Continuing Claims rose slightly to 1.926 million, remaining below 1.94 million for the third consecutive week [5] Durable Goods Orders - August Durable Goods Orders increased by +2.9%, significantly better than the prior month's -2.7% and the consensus estimate of -0.5% [6] - Excluding Transportation orders, the increase was +0.4%, down from +1.0% in the previous month [6] Trade and Inventory Data - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for August improved to -$85.5 billion from -$102.8 billion [7] - Advanced Retail Inventories remained unchanged at +0.2%, while Advanced Wholesale Inventories decreased to -0.2% [7] Company Performance Expectations - Costco is expected to report fiscal Q4 results with a projected earnings growth of +12.8% year over year and revenue growth of +8.1% [10] - Costco has outperformed earnings expectations in three of its past four quarters [10]