Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has declined by 10% in 2025 due to erratic trade policies, recession fears, and high interest rates, creating opportunities for investors to find value in stocks like Dollar General and Vici Properties [1] Group 1: Dollar General - Dollar General's shares have increased by 23% year to date, significantly outperforming the market [2] - The company benefits from low exposure to tariffs, with only 10% of its merchandise affected, compared to 50% for Dollar Tree and nearly 100% for mainstream retailers [3] - The business model focuses on low-priced consumer essentials, which remain in demand during recessions [3] - Dollar General locates stores in rural and neglected urban areas, minimizing rent and labor costs, and offers a no-frills shopping experience [4] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 17, below the S&P 500 average of 20, with a dividend yield of 2.5% [5] Group 2: Vici Properties - Vici Properties operates in the gambling industry but focuses on real estate, which provides a more stable investment opportunity [6] - The company utilizes triple-net leases, where tenants cover rent and other expenses, maximizing cash flow safety [7] - As a real estate investment trust (REIT), Vici returns a generous 5.3% dividend yield to shareholders [8] - Vici owns iconic properties on the Las Vegas Strip, including Caesars Palace and MGM Grand, and is diversifying into non-casino properties [9] - In 2024, Vici's revenue grew by 6.6% year over year to $976.1 million, with a 4.2% increase in dividend payout, marking the seventh consecutive annual increase since its IPO [10]

With volatility returning to the markets this year, safer dividend stocks with high yields are looking more attractive. Target (TGT -2.07%) stands out as a potential investment option, largely because of its 57-year record of paying (and annually increasing) dividends. It currently sports an attractive 4.83% forward yield based on its current quarterly payment of $1.12. This is the highest yield Target stock has ever offered in its trading history. But even with its stellar dividend yield, the stock price h ...

Between the uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, consumers being increasingly reluctant to spend on discretionary purchases, and several other factors, a U.S. recession in 2025 looks a lot more likely than it did a few months ago. A rock-solid financial institution at a discount Bank of America (BAC 3.82%) is a stock I've owned for more than a decade, but I just added more for the first time in several years. With shares trading for 23% below recent highs, and near their lowest pric ...

Core Viewpoint - Hershey faces significant challenges including tariffs, recession, and increased competition, which may impact its financial performance and dividend safety [1] Group 1: Challenges Facing Hershey - Tariffs are creating additional costs for the company, affecting profit margins [1] - The potential for a recession poses a risk to consumer spending on non-essential items like candy [1] - Increased competition in the candy market is putting pressure on Hershey's market share and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Dividend Safety - The discussion revolves around whether Hershey's dividend remains secure amidst these challenges [1]

Group 1 - Chevron CEO Mike Wirth provided bullish comments about the energy sector and the macroeconomy, reassuring investors and leading to a nearly 3% increase in Chevron's stock price [1] - Wirth stated that there are no signs indicating the economy is in or near a recession, despite concerns over trade disputes affecting growth [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy from 2.7% to 1.8%, indicating a slowdown in growth expectations [2] Group 2 - Wirth acknowledged that demand for oil may soften due to American tariffs and OPEC's decision to increase oil production, but he believes this will not drastically impact Chevron's capital spending strategy [3] - The energy industry is not perceived to be at a crisis point, and there is potential for a sharp recovery if trade disputes are resolved [4]

Core Insights - Meta's online advertising business is projected to face a $7 billion decline in 2025 due to the impact of President Trump's tariffs on China, affecting retailers like Temu and Shien [1][3][5] - The company's revenue from China was reported at $18.35 billion in 2024, accounting for over 11% of total sales, indicating the significant role of Chinese advertisers in Meta's revenue stream [3][5] - Analysts suggest that if Chinese retailers reduce their advertising budgets, it could severely impact Meta's ad sales, with potential losses reaching $23 billion if a recession occurs alongside ongoing trade tensions [5][6] Impact of Trade Dispute - The MoffettNathanson research highlights that the U.S.-China trade dispute is leading to a reduction in advertising spending from Chinese retailers, which is crucial for Meta's revenue [2][4] - There are already indications of reduced ad spending, as seen with Temu's cutback in U.S. advertising and a drop in its app rankings [4][5] Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a Buy rating on Meta but have lowered their target price from $710 to $525, reflecting concerns over the potential impact of reduced ad spending and economic downturns [6] - The company is particularly vulnerable to a decline in advertising from Chinese sources, which could compound the effects of a broader economic recession [6]

Chevron is not seeing signs that the U.S. is close to a recession even as President Donald Trump's tariffs weigh on expectations for oil demand, CEO Mike Wirth said Tuesday. "There's no signs that we see at this point that we are in or close to a recession," Wirth told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "There are signs that growth may be slowing and we have to always be prepared for that." "The effects that we feel are likely to be more the macroeconomic effects as they flow through the economy," Wirth said. "The bigger ...

So far, 2025 has proven to be a terrible year in the stock markets, and nearly all of it has to do with the economic fallouts of the start of President Trump's second term in the White House: tariff escalations, a possible coming recession, andWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regula ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a sharp decline on Monday due to tariff concerns, a falling dollar, and rising yields, leading to uncertainty for consumer goods companies [1] - Notable declines were observed in home improvement retail, consumer retail, and fashion sectors, with Home Depot down 3.6%, Lowe's down 2.8%, Boot Barn down 2.6%, and Deckers Outdoor down 2% [1] Tariff Impact - The market is awaiting signs of tariff negotiations, but as of Monday, no deals were in place, and tariffs of 20% or more remain [2] - If tariffs are a long-term issue rather than a temporary tactic, companies like Deckers Outdoor may face pressure to raise prices or cut margins [3] Economic Concerns - Rising prices due to tariffs could lead to reduced consumer spending, potentially impacting discretionary purchases such as running shoes and home improvement projects [4] - The overall economic impact raises concerns about a possible recession if consumer spending declines significantly [4] Currency and Bond Market Effects - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.1% on Monday and is down over 10% from its peak in early 2025, making imports at least 20% more expensive due to tariffs [5] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 16 basis points to 4.41%, indicating investor expectations of higher rates rather than lower ones, contrasting with declining rates in Europe [6] Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by uncertainty regarding tariffs and the economy, which could lead to reduced consumer spending and negatively affect retailers and fashion companies [7] - The falling dollar and rising yields suggest a potential structural shift in global sentiment, which may lead to lower stock prices as investors demand higher yields from stocks [8]

Group 1: U.S. Credit Ratings - In 2011, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the U.S. long-term credit outlook from AAA to AA+ due to budgetary issues, with Fitch downgrading U.S. credit again in 2023 and Moody's considering a similar move [1] - The 2024 fiscal deficit has ballooned to over $1.8 trillion, exacerbating debt and fiscal issues [1] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft holds AAA and Aaa ratings from S&P and Moody's, respectively, and has seen its stock fall about 12% this year, outperforming peers in the "Magnificent Seven" [4][6] - The company has a diverse business model across various tech sectors, including cloud, video games, and AI, and was an early investor in OpenAI [4] - Microsoft has a strong balance sheet with over $71.5 billion in cash and equivalents, approximately $40 billion in long-term debt, and equity exceeding $302 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio [6] Group 3: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is the only other U.S. company with top credit ratings and recently announced an acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, which may impact its credit rating due to increased debt [7] - The stock has performed well, up nearly 9% this year, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $91.4 billion from $89.4 billion [8] - Johnson & Johnson's CFO indicated that the guidance includes a $400 million impact from tariffs, which could affect stock performance if trade tensions with China persist [9] - At the end of 2024, Johnson & Johnson had over $24 billion in cash, about $30.6 billion in long-term debt, and over $71 billion in total equity, maintaining a strong balance sheet despite the recent acquisition [10]