Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

🇺🇸 TRUMP SAID WE SHOULD BE AT1% OR 2% INTEREST RATE.( CURRENTLY ITS 4.25% - 4.50% )RATE CUTS ARE COMING SOON !! https://t.co/kaYne1KRFf ...

Company Overview - As of March 31, 2025, WaFd Bank has total assets of $27.6 billion, total loans held for investment (HFI) of $20.9 billion, total deposits of $21.4 billion, and stockholder equity of $3.0 billion[7] - The bank's efficiency ratio is 58.3%, and the adjusted efficiency ratio is 58.4%[7] - WaFd Bank has 209 branches across 9 western states[7] Market Demographics - WaFd Bank's deposit market share in Washington is 3.97% with deposits of $8,723,693,000[12] - In California, the deposit market share is 0.27% with deposits of $4,073,942,000[12] - The total deposits across all states amount to $21,427,426,000[12] Loan Portfolio - As of March 31, 2025, multifamily loans constitute 23% of the net loan portfolio, with a net balance of $4,840,784,000 and a weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of 56%[52] - Single-family residence (SFR) loans make up 39% of the net loan portfolio, with a net balance of $8,223,356,000 and a weighted average current LTV of 38%[52] - Commercial Real Estate (CRE) - Office loans represent 4% of the net loan portfolio, with a net balance of $775,564,000 and a weighted average current LTV of 69%[52] Financial Performance - For the quarter ended March 31, 2025, net income available to common shareholders was $52,596,000, a 330% increase compared to $12,232,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024[76] - Net interest income for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $160,910,000, a 1% increase compared to $158,597,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024[75] - Non-interest income for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $18,881,000, a 41% increase compared to $13,392,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024[76] Capital Management - In 2025 YTD, $67,293,000 was returned to shareholders through dividends, representing 70% of net income[106] - 815,610 shares were repurchased in 2025 YTD at a weighted price of $30.35, representing 1.3% of outstanding shares at the beginning of the year[108] - The current cash dividend of $0.27 provides a yield of 3.79% based on the current stock price as of April 30[112]

We are now joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Betts. And just as the Senate has begun voting on what's known as the big, beautiful bill. You look at the latest version of the tax bill.The big question that remains is the GOP holdouts. What kind of deal can be cut with those holdouts. And what are you and the president prepared to offer for support.Well, I'm confident that the bill is going to progress, as is over the next few hours, and it'll be on the president's desk to sign on July 4th. So the Senat ...

Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer-term securities given where yields are today, though he held out hope that interest rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows. https://t.co/0JlIiHjDpl ...

While we're talking about interest rates and the Federal Reserve, it has been recently reported that you might be in consideration for the job as the next Fed chair. When you've been asked about the likelihood recently, you said that it's up to the president. Is it a job that you would want.I will do what the president wants, but I think I have the best job in D. C. We're making a lot of progress with the president's leadership.You know, I think think about it. We are going to have the tax bill on his desk ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indexes saw significant increases last week, with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 3.27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.91%, and the S&P 500 by 2.45% [1] - Investor optimism was driven by a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Israel-Iran situation, and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Economic Indicators - The Department of Commerce reported a 0.1% increase in personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in May, with a year-over-year rise to 2.3% from 2.2% [2] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, a deeper contraction than the previously estimated 0.2%, marking the first negative GDP reading since Q1 2022 [3] - Consumer confidence fell to 93 in June, down from 98 in May, while personal income, spending, and savings also declined [3] Stock Performance - Banco Bradesco S.A. shares increased by 30% since being upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) on April 24, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.8% increase [4] - Ubiquiti Inc. shares rose by 28.7% since its upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 on April 25, also outperforming the S&P 500's 12.4% increase [5] - Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks returned +6.51% in May 2025, compared to +4.47% for the S&P 500 [6] Portfolio Performance - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks has returned -2.59% in 2025 (through June 2), underperforming the S&P 500's -1.12% [6] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +2.90% year-to-date (through May 31, 2025), outperforming the S&P 500's +1.07% [15] - The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) returned +3.20% in Q1 2025, compared to the S&P 500's -4.30% decline [18] Notable Stock Upgrades - Flotek Industries, Inc. shares surged by 101% since being upgraded to Outperform by Zacks on May 6 [9] - Goldman Sachs has returned 20.6% year-to-date as part of Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2025 list [24] - Fastenal Company returned 10.2% over the past 12 weeks, while 3M Company increased by 5% during the same period [21]

Macro Environment Outlook - The overall fiscal effort has been advanced this year, with expectations for continued positive fiscal policies in the second half, potentially leading to an increase in overall debt growth driven by government department debt growth [1] - The expansion of welfare-oriented fiscal policies and rising inflation may boost nominal GDP growth [1] - Monetary policy is expected to have room for rate cuts in the context of stabilizing growth and exchange rate constraints, with a continued trend of asymmetric rate cuts on both asset and liability sides [1] - The annual social financing growth rate is projected to be around 8.5%, with a peak expected by the end of the third quarter [1] Industry Core Indicators Outlook - The long-term growth center of social financing is strongly correlated with banks' internal capital accumulation ability, and the "volume compensates for price" strategy is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in net interest income [2] - To further reduce deposit costs, improvements in the industry competition landscape or significant reductions in market interest rates are necessary [2] - Loan pricing is closely related to asset liquidity, with current social financing growth significantly exceeding nominal growth, indicating that loan rates are expected to continue declining, although the pace may slow due to various constraints [2] - The overall credit environment remains loose, with expected stability in non-performing loan generation in the second half of the year [2] Asset Liquidity and Allocation Outlook - The turning point of cross-border liquidity will determine the directional shift of domestic asset liquidity, with expectations for accelerated repatriation of funds due to the relatively high returns of RMB assets after considering exchange rate fluctuations [3] - The return rate of risk assets is currently high compared to the 1.6% risk-free rate, indicating a gradual shift of funds towards risk assets such as credit bonds and stocks [3] Industry Prosperity Outlook - Asset-liability pressure is expected to gradually ease in the third and fourth quarters, with year-on-year growth rates for interest-earning assets projected at 7.86% and 7.80% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The narrowing of interest margins is expected to slow down, with overall growth in non-interest income anticipated to turn positive [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the third quarter, with potential upward adjustments in bond market interest rates in the fourth quarter due to high base effects [4] - Overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a projected decline in provisioning contributions [4] - For 2025, the combined revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks are expected to change by -1.67% and -0.29% year-on-year, respectively, with state-owned banks performing better than other sectors [4]

I'd love him to resign if he wanted to. He's done lousy job. Look, uh, if you were there, you'd say, well, you know, the United States is doing well.They have no inflation, and if they do get inflation in a year or two, we'll put we'll start raising the rates. We'll get rid of the inflation, you know, and do other things. Uh, Biden had the worst inflation in the history of our country, 19%, but I think it was much higher than that.Frankly, they say 19%, they say. I think it's a lot higher than that. And we ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 从市场情绪而言，上周伊以冲突进一步平息，美国宏观数据表现仍然具有韧性，同时鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言暗示了条件符合也可能提 前降息，市场对今年降息预期的预测达到了 3次，市场整体处于r is k o n的状态之中。风险资产普遍上行，铜强金弱的格局较为明显。 核心观点 1、上周金价回落，铜 价走强 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2 .9%，白银 下跌 0 .34%；沪金2510合约 下跌 1 .5%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.48%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+4.86%、+2.79%。 2、短期利多叠加，铜价向上突破 从市场情绪而言，上周伊以冲突进一步平息，美国宏观数据表现仍然具有韧性，同时鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言暗示了条 件符合也可能提前降息，市场对今年降息预期的预测达到了 3次，市场整体处于risk on的状态之中。风险资产普遍上行，尤 其铜还面临着供应端的约束，比如有海外冶炼厂减停产，因此价格重心上行较为明显。 3、黄金继续回调 上周伊以停火协议生效，市场避险情绪快速降温。此后伴随特朗普再度施压 ...