U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, but momentum could ease amid labor market weakness and rising goods prices because of tariffs on imports. ...

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, driven by consumer spending across various goods and dining out, despite concerns over a weakening labor market and rising prices due to tariffs [1][2][3] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in July, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise [4] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 5.0%, indicating strong consumer demand [5] - Adjusted for inflation, monthly sales growth was estimated at only 0.2% [5] Sector-Specific Trends - Sales at auto dealerships increased by 0.5%, reflecting higher prices despite a decline in units sold [5] - Clothing store sales advanced by 1.0%, while sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores rose by 0.8% [5] - Online sales surged by 2.0%, following a 0.6% increase in July, suggesting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6] Economic Context - The increase in retail sales underscores the economy's resilience amid challenges, leading economists to upgrade GDP estimates for the third quarter [3] - The Federal Reserve's primary concern remains the softening labor market, but positive retail data may influence a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [4][6]

Joining us now with the latest on trade talks, uh the future of Tik Tok and more, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen. Mr. . Secretary, uh it's good to have you on up.Even I can figure out where you are from that backdrop, >> Joe. Good to see you. Good to be here in London.>> And it's good to have you on. So we I I think you got obviously you have an earpiece in. So you heard what was in our headlines.We can Let's just go in order. um and talk about some of the things with uh with Steve Meyer that that we talke ...

I want to talk about uh Tik Tok, but I also this the market's at new highs again, Mr. . Secretary, and and I I made the point again that most of the stock markets, maybe not the Dow, but the S&P and the NASDAQ indicated higher today with everything we've heard about and worried about in terms of global trade rebalancing and tariffs and, you know, the labor market and everything else. Do you think it does it deserve to be there.does uh is it because of the anticipation of some rate cuts or is it something mo ...

Core Insights - Tariffs are negatively impacting imports across various industries, but the computer equipment sector is experiencing significant growth due to the AI boom [2][5] - Total U.S. imports increased by 6% in July, largely driven by investments in data centers to support AI [2][3] - The overall U.S. trade deficit rose by nearly 33% to $78.3 billion, influenced by a surge in computer imports [3] Import Trends - High-tech imports have risen by 34% year-over-year through July, with computer shipments increasing by 65% and computer accessories by 50% in July alone [4][5] - Capital goods imports related to AI and data centers are resilient, while imports of other products subject to tariffs have declined significantly [3][6] - Civilian aircraft imports fell by 30%, machinery by 21%, trucks by 13%, and cars by 11% year-over-year in July [7] Economic Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the five largest U.S. tech companies will spend $736 billion on capital goods, including computer equipment, in 2025 and 2026 [6] - Overall capital goods imports have increased by 15% this year, contrasting with an 11% decline in all other imports [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

All right. Uh, first off, I I want to talk to you about some of your thoughts about the fact that we could see a fifth summit between the US and China. Tariffs trade have had a big impact on the markets this year.Remember the April lows and the rebound since then. Does that give you confidence that there's going to be a deal that's going to be positive for the markets coming up. >> Well, I think, you know, we're all holding our breath a little bit.I I know we've had a lot of these summits, a lot of these ta ...

Japan’s finance minister pushed back against a US call to ramp up pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine by imposing higher tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil https://t.co/901lnQwTtp ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with a consensus leaning towards a 25 basis points reduction, although a 50 basis points cut would be more beneficial for the economy [2][4] - The job market is showing signs of weakness, and there is a significant lack of discussion regarding the housing market, which is affecting young families' ability to afford homes [3][4] Housing Market - The current real estate market is characterized by high demand and low supply, leading to unprecedented affordability issues for young families [4] - Despite high mortgage rates, home prices have not decreased as typically expected, exacerbating the affordability crisis [4] Tariffs and Inflation - The justification for maintaining high interest rates due to tariffs is questioned, as tariffs are viewed as a one-time price increase rather than a continuous inflationary factor [5][6] - The economic environment is complex, with uncertainty surrounding tariff strategies impacting small businesses and hiring [7][8] Employment and Investment - There is optimism regarding a resurgence in hiring by the end of the year, although the current market conditions are weak [9] - Foreign investment and reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. are anticipated to positively influence the economy [8][9]

By slapping tariffs on China without receiving White House concessions, President Claudia Sheinbaum is likely just to embolden Donald Trump in next year’s trade talks, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) https://t.co/6vu2cazcrV ...