Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's comprehensive national strength and residents' living standards steadily improved, with a significant impact from proactive fiscal policies. By 2024, China's GDP and per capita GDP are expected to increase by approximately 15% compared to 2021, reaching a per capita GDP of $13,500, nearing the threshold for high-income countries [1][2] - Fiscal expenditure in China surpassed 28 trillion yuan, with an increase of about 15.85%, nearly double the growth rate of fiscal revenue. The absolute value of tax revenue remained relatively stable, while its proportion of GDP decreased by about 2 percentage points [2][3] - The overall stability of prices during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with CPI growth rates of 0.9%, 2%, 0.2%, and 0.2% from 2021 to 2024, provides sufficient space for further high-quality fiscal economic development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3][4] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to reform the fiscal and tax system, focusing on increasing the proportion of tax revenue to GDP, which is currently below 13% and has decreased by about 2 percentage points compared to 2021. This low tax revenue ratio restricts the effectiveness of fiscal governance [5][6] - The proposed tax reform includes moving the consumption tax collection point down to local governments, which is expected to enhance local fiscal vitality and support the integration of various local taxes [6][7] - The need for improved coordination between fiscal policies and other policies, such as monetary and industrial policies, is emphasized, particularly in areas like child-rearing subsidies and the integration of various support measures [7][8]

展望下半年，将依然行业无金融风险、土地市场延续产品代际差导致的结构好、十五五规划下房企谋求新 商业模式的局面。 我们论述过行业支出减少带来的金融风险下降，预计下半年仍然会呈现出和上半年类似 的局面。同时，土地市场仍将持续超预期，尽管土地出让金仍然负增长，但预计幅度会好于预期，核心就 在于产品代际差带来的新房市场持续处于结构性活跃状态，带动房企拿地和政府推地的积极性维持较高水 平。需要重点关注的是十五五规划带来的房企新思考，尤其是头部房企，在新商业模式驱动下，找到超越 行业发展的新思路。 结构性市场，包袱小的企业仍然将取得更明显的优势。 风险提示： 不扩信用背景下，价格企稳的压力仍在。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：四平八稳，轻装上阵——地产5月观察及数据点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 涂力磊 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040101 谢皓宇 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880518010002 陈昭颖 （研究助理)，登记编号： S0880125042226 报告导读： 5月楼市运营延续4月，整体呈现四平八稳状态，结合十五五规划，接下来的 亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The railway investment in China is accelerating, with significant growth in fixed asset investment observed in the first five months of 2023, indicating a recovery from the low levels experienced in 2022 due to the pandemic [1][2]. Investment Growth - In the first five months of 2023, the total fixed asset investment in railways reached 242.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with May alone seeing an investment of 47.4 billion yuan, up 8.7% [1]. - The growth rates for railway investment in the first two months, first quarter, and first four months of 2023 were 5%, 5.2%, and 5.7% respectively, showing a consistent upward trend [1]. - The investment amount for the first five months of 2023 has broken historical records for the same period, although the growth rate is showing signs of slowing down compared to previous years [1]. Historical Context - The railway investment in 2022 was notably low at 710.9 billion yuan, the lowest in 12 years, primarily due to the impacts of COVID-19 [2]. - The total fixed asset investment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2024) has been 30.7 billion yuan, with the investments for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 being 748.9 billion yuan, 710.9 billion yuan, 764.5 billion yuan, and 850.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. Future Planning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" for railway development is currently being drafted, with a focus on enhancing network efficiency and integrating various transport modes [3]. - The National Railway Administration is prioritizing the completion of network gaps in the western regions and improving urban rail connections in the eastern regions [3]. - The investment strategy for the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving a balance between adequate and excessive investment, ensuring that projects are scientifically evaluated and prioritized [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of tax reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing local fiscal autonomy and addressing systemic issues that limit local government initiatives [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen significant progress in tax reforms, particularly in areas like value-added tax and tax administration, while some reforms, such as personal income tax and real estate tax legislation, have faced delays due to various challenges [2][5][7] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" tax reforms will prioritize resolving local fiscal difficulties, implementing national strategic tasks, and establishing a more comprehensive modern tax system [3][10] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven main tax reform tasks, including optimizing the tax structure, improving the direct tax system, and advancing real estate tax legislation [4] - The progress of tax reforms has varied, with value-added tax reforms advancing rapidly due to prior experience and significant economic impact, while real estate tax legislation has been slower due to its complexity and societal sensitivity [5][6][7] - Future tax reforms will focus on enhancing fiscal revenue collection, with an emphasis on local government financial autonomy and the need for a stable macro tax burden to mitigate risks [11][12] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will continue some reforms from the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as moving consumption tax collection to local levels and refining value-added tax policies [10] - Individual income tax reforms are expected to maintain the current exemption threshold while gradually expanding the income base and unifying taxation for different income types [13][14] - The overall pace of tax reforms will depend on social consensus, the difficulty of interest adjustments, and the maturity of supporting mechanisms, reflecting a pragmatic approach to reform [9]

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展为期一个月的网络征求意见活动。 通过互联网就"十四五"规划编制向全社会征求意见和建议，在我国五年规划编制史上是第一次。相比于"十四 五"规划编制，此次网络征求意见活动开始时间早，持续时间长，充分体现出规划编制工作注重把顶层设计和 问计于民统一起来，广泛凝聚共识。证券时报记者近日专访清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜，他 以多次五年规划编制工作参与者的视角，详谈五年规划的意义和影响，并对"十五五"规划的编制建议详谈自 己的思考与见解。 董煜曾在国家发展改革委、中央财经委员会办公室工作，深度参与国家五年规划编制工作，是国家"十一 五"、"十二五"规划纲要起草组主要成员，党的十八届五中全会"十三五"规划建议起草组正式成员，中央"十 四五"、"十五五"规划总体思路研究课题组主要成员，多个领域"十五五"规划基本思路研究课题组组长，担任 多部委"十五五"专家委员会成员。 以五年为周期 衔接短期与长期发展目标 证券时报记者：作为近几个五年规划编制工作的主要参与者之一，您认为五年规划对于我国经济社会发展有何 重要性？ 董煜： 五年规划之所以重要，是因为中国历来注重中长期思维，我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of integrating top-level design with public consultation, marking a significant shift in the planning process compared to previous iterations [2][8]. Group 1: Importance of Five-Year Plans - The five-year plans are crucial for China's economic and social development, reflecting a long-term strategic thinking that is central to the ruling party's governance philosophy [3][5]. - The global interest in China's five-year plans has increased as the country continues to achieve economic breakthroughs, highlighting the plans' significant role in this success [5]. Group 2: Planning Cycle and Methodology - The five-year cycle is chosen for its balance between short-term adjustments and long-term vision, allowing for continuous policy updates and implementation of major projects [6][8]. - Market participants should focus on long-term opportunities within the plans rather than just new terminologies, as continuity in development goals is essential for identifying sustainable investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: External and Internal Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" faces more complex challenges than the "14th," including intensified great power competition, accelerated technological revolutions, and a restructuring of the global economic landscape [9][10]. - Domestic pressures, such as economic growth stabilization and demographic issues, necessitate a more nuanced approach in the new plan [9][11]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Consumption - The plan will likely emphasize expanding domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption as a strategic priority rather than a temporary measure [11][13]. - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for growth, with policies aimed at enhancing employment and stabilizing the economy [13][14]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Investment - Major infrastructure projects will be a focal point in the "15th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on aligning these projects with new economic and social development goals [14][15]. - The plan will also address "soft construction," such as human capital investment, which is critical for long-term economic sustainability [15]. Group 6: Reform and Policy Implementation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will align with the broader reform agenda set by the 20th National Congress, focusing on practical implementation of reforms to enhance market competitiveness [16][17]. - Key areas for reform include improving the macroeconomic governance system and managing market expectations effectively [18][19].

6月16日出版的第12期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席 习近平的重要文章《用中长期规划指导经济社会发展是我们党治国理政的一种重要方式》。 这是习近平总书记2015年10月至2025年4月期间有关重要论述的节录。 文章指出，人民对美好生活的向往就是我们的奋斗目标，人民的信心和支持就是我们国 家奋进的力量。好的方针政策和发展规划都应该顺应人民意愿、符合人民所思所盼，从群众 中来、到群众中去。五年规划编制涉及经济社会发展方方面面，同人民群众生产生活息息相 关，需要把加强顶层设计和坚持问计于民统一起来，把社会期盼、群众智慧、专家意见、基 层经验充分吸收到规划编制中来。 文章强调，谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，必须准确把握"十五五"时期的阶段性要 求，着眼强国建设、民族复兴伟业，紧紧围绕基本实现社会主义现代化目标，一个领域一个 领域合理确定目标任务、提出思路举措。对各方面的目标任务，要深入分析论证，确保科学 精准、能够如期实现。要统筹谋划，抓住关键性、决定性因素，把握好节奏和进度，注重巩 固拓展优势、突破瓶颈堵点、补强短板弱项、提高质量效益，与整体目标保持取向一致性。 各地区编制本地区规划要 ...

6月16日出版的第12期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重 要文章《用中长期规划指导经济社会发展是我们党治国理政的一种重要方式》。这是习近平总书记 2015年10月至2025年4月期间有关重要论述的节录。 文章强调，科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主 义一个重要政治优势。新中国成立不久，我们党就提出建设社会主义现代化国家的目标。从第一个 五年计划到第十四个五年规划，一以贯之的主题是把我国建设成为社会主义现代化国家。在这个过 程中，我们党对建设社会主义现代化国家在认识上不断深入、在战略上不断成熟、在实践上不断丰 富，加速了我国现代化发展进程。 文章强调，谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，必须准确把握"十五五"时期的阶段性要求，着眼强国 建设、民族复兴伟业，紧紧围绕基本实现社会主义现代化目标，一个领域一个领域合理确定目标任 务、提出思路举措。对各方面的目标任务，要深入分析论证，确保科学精准、能够如期实现。要统 筹谋划，抓住关键性、决定性因素，把握好节奏和进度，注重巩固拓展优势、突破瓶颈堵点、补强 短板弱项、提高质量效益，与整体目标保持取向一致 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of scientifically formulating and continuously implementing five-year plans as a significant experience in governance and a political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics [1][2] - The report from the 20th National Congress deeply elaborates on the characteristics, essential requirements, and major principles of Chinese-style modernization, highlighting the need for top-level design in advancing modernization [2] - The article stresses that the aspirations of the people for a better life are the ultimate goal of efforts, and that policies and development plans should align with the people's wishes and incorporate their insights [2][3] Group 2 - The planning for the "15th Five-Year" period must accurately grasp the phase requirements, focusing on national strength and the rejuvenation of the nation, while setting reasonable goals and measures for each sector [3] - It is essential to analyze and ensure that the goals and tasks are scientifically precise and achievable, while also coordinating planning to address key factors and improve quality and efficiency [3] - Local regions should develop their plans based on actual conditions, ensuring practical implementation and effectiveness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for implementing the strategy of building a modern socialist country, emphasizing the importance of high-quality planning and execution to achieve the goals set by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Orientation - The strong country strategy is a key driver for economic and social development, with multiple goals outlined in the 20th National Congress report, including education, technology, talent, culture, and sports [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" must maintain strategic determination, adapting to changing circumstances while aligning with central decision-making [3]. Group 2: Quality Orientation - High-quality development is the primary task for building a modern socialist country, requiring a shift from rapid growth to quality improvement in economic structures and growth drivers [4]. - The focus on quality must be integrated into the planning and policy-making processes to ensure effective economic progress [4]. Group 3: Reform Orientation - Reform is essential for high-quality development, with over 300 important reform tasks outlined to be integrated into the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5]. - The goal is to establish a high-level socialist market economy by 2035, providing a solid foundation for modernization [5]. Group 4: People's Livelihood Orientation - The focus on people's livelihoods is crucial, addressing the growing demands for better education, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [7]. - The government aims to boost economic circulation through consumption while ensuring that development benefits the populace, reflecting a commitment to shared prosperity [7]. Group 5: Systemic Orientation - A systemic approach is necessary for the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the integration of various planning elements and ensuring coherence across different levels of governance [8]. - The plan should facilitate collaboration between central and local authorities, aligning with broader national strategies and reform tasks [8].