【点评】 实际工作中，多数地方和部门的预算编制按照以上一年支出为基数、适当考虑一定增长比例的方式分配 资金。零基预算，是以"零"为起点，不考虑以往预算安排基数，不参照过去的预算项目和收支水平，重 新审视各项支出的必要性、成本效益、开支标准及优先级，在综合平衡的基础上进行预算编制。 传统模式虽简便易行，但容易造成支出固化僵化、"为花钱而花钱"等问题，不利于优化支出结构、提高 财政使用效益，一定程度上影响预算平衡、资源统筹和财政可持续。而零基预算更多从实际需要、财力 状况、事项轻重缓急出发，能更灵活应对内外环境的变化，更贴近预算年度真实经济活动需要。深化零 基预算改革有助于加强预算控制、提升资金配置效率和使用效益，为经济社会发展提供更充足的"血 氧"。 【现象】今年的《政府工作报告》提出，"开展中央部门零基预算改革试点，支持地方深化零基预算改 革"。多地出台方案、加快探索步伐：江西从编制2025年预算起，对到期的阶段性项目、与基本支出高 度重叠的日常运转类项目等，原则上全面清理退出；广东广州制定市本级行政事业单位国有资产共享共 用试行办法，将低效、闲置、超配资产调剂共享，进一步降低机关运行成本；江苏南京对政府投资 ...

□ 杨松 制度化护航，健全科学管理机制。该局制定转移支付统筹办法、非税收入管理系列政策，推动教育科技 人才等专项资金"跨部门、跨领域"统筹使用。建立财政承受能力论证机制，对新增重大支出实行"一事 一议"审批，确保财政运行安全可持续。修订城建重点工程资金管理办法，推动PPP项目支出责任优 化，构建"立项—建设—转固"全周期监管体系。 智能化赋能，构建高效管理格局。该局建设预算管理辅助平台，实现跨部门数据实时共享，运用人工智 能技术开展绩效目标设定、支出标准优化等场景应用。在办公平台设立改革专栏，通过"红橙黄绿"四色 指标体系实时跟踪任务进展，加快推进AI技术应用。 另外，为确保改革任务落地见效，徐州市财政局专门成立由局主要领导挂帅的改革工作领导小组，构 建"三级联动、全员参与"工作机制。实行责任落实清单化，明确20项任务牵头处室和责任人；打破处室 分工界限，组建跨部门联合专班；并将改革任务纳入年度考核，增设"改革攻坚""AI应用"专项评价，考 核结果与评优评先直接挂钩。 4大抓手齐发力，20项行动促变革。该局本次改革构建"1+2+N"总体框架(即1个中心、2个主要支撑点、 N个编审举措)，围绕"精细化、标准化、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Xuzhou in the first quarter shows a stable growth in public budget revenue, with a focus on enhancing fiscal management and supporting high-quality development amidst economic challenges [1][2][3] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Xuzhou's general public budget revenue reached 17.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with tax revenue accounting for 70.6% of total revenue, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The city implemented a "weekly scheduling, ten-day assessment, monthly reporting" mechanism to enhance revenue collection, with specific strategies tailored for different districts, resulting in stable growth in areas like Pizhou, which led the city with an 8.4% increase [2] - Major tax categories such as value-added tax and corporate income tax grew by 12% and 7.1% respectively, indicating a sustained release of economic development momentum [2] Group 2: Expenditure and Social Welfare - In the first quarter, general public budget expenditure totaled 26.573 billion yuan, with over 80% allocated to social welfare, ensuring strong support for key areas [1] - Health expenditure increased by 32.5% year-on-year, while social security and employment spending rose by 25.2%, reflecting a commitment to enhancing public health and supporting employment policies [2] Group 3: Fiscal Management Innovations - The financial bureau is planning for a zero-based budgeting reform for 2026, focusing on refined, standardized, institutionalized, and intelligent management practices [3] - The bureau has also completed a review of budget unit funds and optimized fund storage to improve efficiency, while actively managing state-owned assets to enhance asset management quality [3]

Group 1 - The overall agenda of the Two Sessions in 2025 remains largely unchanged compared to 2024, with significant legislative activities including the review and approval of the revised National People's Congress and local people's congresses representative law [1][10][15] - The government work report sets a fiscal deficit target of around 4%, the highest since 2010, indicating a proactive stance on leveraging debt [3][17] - The emphasis on stabilizing asset prices, particularly in the real estate and stock markets, is a notable shift in macroeconomic management [4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with plans for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [2][24] - The government aims to implement a more active fiscal policy, with a focus on increasing public spending and supporting consumption through special bonds [3][19] - The report highlights the acceleration of reforms in the capital market, with a focus on enhancing the health of the stock market and supporting strategic industries [4][18] Group 3 - The real estate sector is undergoing a transformation towards higher quality and sustainability, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" [5][19] - Employment stability is prioritized, with initiatives aimed at improving job matching efficiency and supporting entrepreneurship [6][18] - The government is set to support emerging industries such as quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G, indicating a shift in focus towards future industries [7][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "dynamic adjustment" in response to external and internal challenges facing the economy, highlighting the need for timely policy changes to stabilize growth and manage risks [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The external environment is increasingly complex and severe, impacting trade, technology, and global supply chains, with heightened risks from unilateralism and protectionism [3]. - Domestic economic recovery remains unstable, with insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in some industries, leading to weak consumer confidence and ongoing risks [3]. Group 2: Growth Expectations - The actual GDP growth target aligns with expectations, around 5%, while the nominal GDP growth forecast is lower than last year at approximately 4.9%, indicating a more pragmatic approach [4]. Group 3: Reforms in Fiscal and Financial Areas - The government work report highlights over 40 mentions of "reform," indicating a significant focus on advancing reforms, particularly in the fiscal sector, including zero-based budgeting and consumption tax adjustments [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Debt - The total new government debt for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, with a breakdown including special bonds and deficits [6]. - Revenue growth is expected to be constrained, with general public budget revenue projected to grow by only 0.1%, while government fund revenue may see a slight increase of 0.7% [6]. Group 5: Consumption Boost - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is expected to stimulate retail sales, with an estimated additional impact of 300 billion yuan on total retail sales, potentially raising growth rates to around 4.1% [7][8]. Group 6: Industrial Highlights - The report emphasizes increasing supply to boost consumption and the development of smart devices, with significant capital expenditure expected in the technology sector [9]. Group 7: Investment Dynamics - Fiscal funds for investment are set at approximately 5.33 trillion yuan for 2025, with a focus on expanding the investment multiplier effect [11][12]. Group 8: Real Estate Strategy - The real estate strategy focuses on "controlling quantity and stabilizing prices," with measures to promote inventory reduction and optimize structural monetary policy tools [13]. Group 9: Social Welfare and Support - The report outlines plans for increased social welfare, including pension adjustments and enhanced support for childbirth, aiming to improve living standards [14][15]. Group 10: Energy Consumption Goals - The government aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by around 3%, with a projected increase in total energy consumption of 4.2% for 2024 [15].

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, the highest since the implementation of active fiscal policies in 2008, reflecting a strong commitment to economic recovery[2] - The total deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion, significantly higher than last year's 1.6 trillion, indicating a substantial increase in fiscal spending[2] - Special bonds are planned at 4.4 trillion, exceeding last year's 500 billion, while the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds will increase to 1.3 trillion, up from 300 billion last year[2] Economic Impact - The increase in the deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long bonds collectively amounts to 11.86 trillion, surpassing last year's total of 8.96 trillion by 2.9 trillion, indicating a robust fiscal stimulus[2] - The 1.3 trillion ultra-long bonds, 500 billion special bonds, and 4.4 trillion special bonds correspond to an increase in the deficit rate by 0.9, 0.4, and 3.1 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall deficit rate of 8.4% for 2025, higher than last year's 6.6%[2] Policy Objectives - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand total demand, optimize supply structure, stabilize expectations, and mitigate economic risks, particularly in real estate and finance[3] - The government emphasizes the importance of enhancing transfer payments to local governments, ensuring basic public services, and alleviating fiscal pressures at the grassroots level[12] Structural Reforms - The report highlights the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms, including zero-based budgeting and consumption tax reforms, to improve fiscal efficiency and support high-quality development[16] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to increase efficiency and effectiveness, with a notable rise in spending on healthcare, education, and social security, which accounted for 39.7% of the general public budget in 2024, up 4.4 percentage points from 2013[14]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand and consumption as a primary strategy for economic growth, with a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][3][9] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target is set at approximately 5%, balancing the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improved living standards, while aligning with long-term development goals [3][4] - The report indicates that achieving a 5% growth rate is feasible due to a large domestic market and recent positive economic indicators [4][11] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed at around 4%, with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic growth [6][7][8] - The report outlines plans for issuing special bonds and local government bonds to finance infrastructure and support consumption [6][10] Consumption and Domestic Demand - The report prioritizes boosting consumption and investment efficiency, aiming to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth [9][11] - Specific measures include implementing special actions to enhance consumption, improving the consumption environment, and increasing residents' income [9][12] Investment Strategies - The government plans to enhance effective investment by focusing on key projects and ensuring proper funding allocation to prevent inefficient investments [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of private investment and encourages public-private partnerships in infrastructure and social services [10][16] Reforms and Market Environment - The report highlights the need for significant reforms to create a fair and vibrant market environment, particularly in supporting the private economy and improving the fiscal and tax systems [14][15][16] - It stresses the importance of addressing barriers to market entry and competition, particularly in the context of "involution" in various industries [18][19] Future Industries and Technological Development - The government work report outlines plans to advance future industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital economy sectors, to enhance consumer experiences and drive economic growth [20][21] - There is a focus on integrating new technologies into traditional industries to create new employment opportunities and stimulate economic activity [20][21]