Market Overview - The market is perceived as stretched and narrow, raising concerns about future actions over the next quarter [1] - There are risks on the horizon from fiscal, geopolitical, and earnings perspectives, alongside potential opportunities [2] - The market has reached new all-time highs during a government shutdown, indicating conflicting narratives of risk and optimism [3] Earnings and Sector Performance - Earnings estimates have increased for communication services, tech, and financial sectors since July, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4] - US corporations have shown resilience in income statements, justifying valuations, particularly among larger, high-growth companies [5] - Optimism in financials, especially larger banks, is seen as beneficial for broader macroeconomic growth [6] Consumer Spending and Airline Sector - Total card spending increased by over 2%, but airlines experienced a slight pullback, raising concerns about consumer strength [7] - Delta Airlines is highlighted as a safer investment option due to its valuation metrics, with forward earnings at eight times and forward cash flow at ten times [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia/EM (Emerging Markets) equity strategy, highlighting the current market conditions and future outlook for the region [2][4]. Core Insights - The recent rally in Asia/EM markets is primarily attributed to multiple expansions rather than earnings growth, raising concerns about sustainability [2][10]. - For the rally to continue into 2026, a significant reacceleration in global GDP growth and earnings estimates is necessary [4][14]. - Current downside risks for major Asia/EM indices range from 6% to 13%, while upside potential is limited to 1% to 8% [7][8]. - The 12-month forward P/E multiples have increased by 3.0 to 3.6 points since early April, returning to levels last seen in 2021, which are 1.0 to 1.8 standard deviations above the 10-year averages [11][12]. Earnings and Economic Outlook - Earnings estimate revisions have been flat to down since April, contrasting with the positive revisions seen in the US market [7][14]. - The economic team expresses concerns about growth risks, particularly in trade-dependent economies, with moderate deceleration expected in forward EPS for major markets [14][15]. - The report indicates resilience in domestic demand sectors like Financials and Consumer, while global cyclicals such as Energy and Materials are expected to face weakness [15]. Market Sentiment and Flows - There is a noted gap of approximately 10% between current index levels and base case targets, with markets nearing bull case targets [8][34]. - Sentiment indicators show complacency but not extreme euphoria, with inflows into EM equities increasing from 2 out of 10 weeks at the market trough in April to 8 out of 10 weeks recently [34][36]. Sector Performance - Emerging Markets (EM) equities are characterized as low-quality cyclicals, with historical performance showing sudden bursts of investor interest followed by disappointment [18]. - The report suggests a preference for Financials and domestic Consumer plays over traditional cyclicals like Energy and Materials, which are currently underweighted [25][30]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the need for cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, highlighting the importance of economic growth and earnings recovery for future performance [2][4][18].

Later today, investors are going to be parsing through the Fed's minutes for clues on the path of interest rates. Joining us right now with her take on the markets is Alicia Lavine. She's head of investment strategy and equities at BNY Wealth.And Alicia, thanks for coming in this morning. Great to be in. So, we mentioned earlier in the tease that we broke the winning streak we've seen for the markets, but we are still talking about all three of the major averages, less than 1% from all-time highs.So, I don' ...

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet's stock can continue to build on its gains by enhancing its search and cloud services, which could lead to higher earnings estimates according to a Morgan Stanley analyst [1] Group 1 - The focus on driving search momentum is essential for Alphabet's growth strategy [1] - Cloud services are identified as a significant area for potential revenue increase [1] - Higher earnings estimates are anticipated as a result of these strategic focuses [1]

Market Overview - The equity market has experienced a significant recovery since Liberation Day, with low stocks increasing by 38% [1] - The current period, historically challenging, includes August, September, and October, suggesting a potential for a 5-10% correction due to high forward multiples for the S&P at approximately 22 times earnings [2] Earnings Performance - Second quarter revenues rose by 6% year-over-year, while earnings increased by 12% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations [4] - Earnings estimates for the remainder of the year are being reevaluated upwards, indicating solid double-digit growth [5] Economic Indicators - The GDP estimate for the U.S. next year is projected at 2.8%, significantly higher than the blue chip consensus of 1.5% [6] - International stocks are currently valued about 40% cheaper than domestic stocks, with a typical discount of around 20% [8] Investment Strategy - There is a belief in a rolling rotation within the market, with potential profit-taking from high-performing stocks benefiting small-cap, value, and international names that have lagged [3] - The international asset class is favored, supported by a weak dollar and more accommodative foreign central banks, which are expected to facilitate stronger economic and earnings growth [9][10]

Core Insights - T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) and Apollo Global Management (APO) are prominent players in the asset management industry, each with distinct strengths and focuses [1][20] - Apollo emphasizes private equity and alternative assets, while T. Rowe Price specializes in mutual funds and active management of equity and fixed income [1] Apollo Global Management (APO) - Apollo's diversified business model supports sustainable earnings, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% in assets under management (AUM) from 2021 to 2024, driven by retirement services and new financing [3] - The company expects its total AUM to reach nearly $1.5 trillion by 2029, primarily through scaling its private equity business [3][9] - Recent acquisitions, such as Bridge Investment Group Holdings, and partnerships with Mubadala and Citigroup enhance Apollo's capabilities and growth potential [4] - Apollo's revenues grew at a CAGR of 63.7% from 2021 to 2024, although growth moderated in the first half of 2025 [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a year-over-year earnings increase of 4.7% for 2025 and 19.3% for 2026, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [10] T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) - T. Rowe Price's AUM experienced a CAGR of 2.3% from 2020 to 2024, supported by market appreciation and strength in multi-asset and fixed income [6] - The company has formed strategic alliances, including a partnership with Goldman Sachs to enhance access to private markets and an acquisition of Retiree for retirement income planning [7] - T. Rowe Price's net revenues grew at a CAGR of 3.4% over the past four years, continuing into the first half of 2025 [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 1.6% for 2025, followed by a 4.9% increase in 2026, with upward revisions in estimates [13] Comparative Performance - Over the past year, Apollo outperformed the industry with a stock gain of 17.3%, while T. Rowe Price only rose 0.5% [15] - Apollo trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16.3X, while T. Rowe Price trades at 11X, both below the industry average of 17.45X [17] - Both companies have increased dividends five times in the past five years, with Apollo's yield at 1.5% and T. Rowe Price's at 4.8% [19] Investment Outlook - Apollo is positioned for greater upside potential due to its diversified and rapidly growing alternative asset platform, aggressive expansion, and strong earnings growth trajectory [20] - T. Rowe Price offers steady growth and high dividend yield but has a more conservative approach, limiting its upside compared to Apollo [21]

Group 1: Earnings Estimates and Market Outlook - Susquehanna Financial Group has cut earnings estimates for asset-based truckload carriers by mid-single- to low-double-digit percentages ahead of the third-quarter earnings season, indicating a soft market outlook [1] - Analyst Bascome Majors has reduced fourth-quarter forecasts for most truckload-related companies, projecting that the truckload market is unlikely to see upward price and margin momentum in the near term [2] - Third-quarter earnings-per-share estimates were cut by 12% for Schneider National and 11% for Werner Enterprises, with smaller reductions of 6% for J.B. Hunt and 5% for Knight-Swift [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Consumer Spending - Concerns have been raised regarding consumer spending through the holiday season, with July being noted as the peak for container imports [4] - The Contract Load Accepted Volume Index indicates potential mid- to high-single-digit declines in spot rates for the fourth quarter if current trends continue [5] - The National Truckload Index shows that spot rates are slightly ahead of year-ago levels, suggesting a stable but cautious market environment [6] Group 3: Future Projections and Industry Dynamics - Fourth-quarter earnings estimates were cut by high-single digits, with Werner experiencing a 16% reduction, and 2026 estimates were also revised down by 9% to 17% [7] - Despite the downward revisions, there is a more constructive outlook for next year as the truckload supply side is expected to rationalize more rapidly into 2026 [7] - Knight-Swift Transportation's rating was downgraded to "neutral" due to the lower EPS outlook, with a new share price target set at $43, down from $52 [8]

Core Insights - Thor Industries (THO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 31% [1] - Revenue projections stand at $2.31 billion, down 8.7% from the same quarter last year [1] - Analysts have adjusted the consensus EPS estimate upward by 30.9% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial projections [1][2] Revenue and Sales Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales- Recreational Vehicles- North American Towable' is $853.43 million, indicating a decline of 8.4% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Total Recreational Vehicles' is projected to reach $2.17 billion, down 9.3% from the prior year [4] - 'Net Sales- Recreational Vehicles- North American Motorized' is expected to be $455.49 million, reflecting a 12% decrease from the previous year [5] - 'Net Sales- Other' is estimated at $201.27 million, suggesting a slight increase of 0.5% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- Recreational Vehicles- European' is projected at $861.41 million, down 8.7% from the year-ago quarter [5] - Combined 'Net Sales- Recreational Vehicles- Total North America' is expected to be $1.31 billion, indicating a decline of 9.7% year-over-year [6] Units Sales Projections - 'Units sales - Recreational Vehicles - European' is estimated at 13,647, down from 14,982 in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Units sales - Recreational Vehicles - North American Towable' is projected to be 26,945, compared to 28,572 reported last year [7] - Total 'Units sales - Total' is expected to reach 43,995, down from 47,331 in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Units sales - Total Recreational Vehicles (Total North America)' is forecasted at 30,348, down from 32,349 in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Units sales - Recreational Vehicles - North American Motorized' is estimated at 3,403, compared to 3,777 reported last year [8] Profit Projections - 'Gross Profit- Recreational Vehicles- European' is expected to be $143.84 million, down from $176.14 million in the previous year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Thor Industries have returned -1.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 3% [10] - Currently, THO holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [10]

Group 1 - General Mills, Inc. reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street profit expectations while reaffirming its full-year guidance [1] - The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share, surpassing analysts' forecast of $0.81, despite a 7% decline in net sales to $4.5 billion [1] - Revenue was in line with expectations at $4.52 billion but fell 3% organically, impacted by unfavorable price realization and mix in the North America Retail segment [1] Group 2 - Adjusted operating profit decreased 18% in constant currency to $711 million, although results were slightly better than internal projections [2] - The divestiture of the U.S. yogurt business generated a $1.05 billion gain, boosting reported operating profit by 108% to $1.7 billion and diluted EPS by 116% to $2.22 [2] Group 3 - By division, North America Retail sales dropped 13%, while North America Pet sales grew 6%, aided by an 11-point benefit from the Whitebridge Pet Brands acquisition [3] - North America Foodservice sales declined 4%, and International sales rose 6% [3] - General Mills reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales growth between -1% and +1%, with adjusted operating profit and EPS both expected to decline 10% to 15% in constant currency [3]

Group 1 - Associated British Foods PLC (ASBFY) is currently outperforming its peers in the Consumer Staples sector with a year-to-date return of approximately 5.7%, compared to the sector average of 3.1% [4] - The Zacks Rank for ASBFY is 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook and improving analyst sentiment, as the consensus estimate for its full-year earnings has increased by 1.1% in the past quarter [3][4] - ASBFY is part of the Food - Miscellaneous industry, which has seen an average loss of about 6.8% this year, further highlighting ASBFY's relative strength within its industry [6] Group 2 - Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) is another strong performer in the Consumer Staples sector, with a year-to-date return of 119.5% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - The consensus estimate for CELH's current year EPS has increased by 33.5% over the past three months, indicating strong growth potential [5] - Both ASBFY and CELH are positioned well within the Consumer Staples sector, suggesting continued solid performance for investors to monitor [7]