Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will allocate the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade policy in July, emphasizing the principles of "timeliness" and "balance" in fund usage [1] - A total of 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support the consumption upgrade policy, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [1] - Sales of related products in the consumption upgrade sector, including home appliances and furniture, have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year [1] Group 2 - The first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan for equipment updates has been allocated to about 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with the second batch undergoing project review [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance project management and accelerate construction while implementing loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for equipment updates [2] - A new action plan aims to increase the labor remuneration ratio in the "work-for-relief" projects from over 30% to 40%, thereby boosting income for the workforce [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Support Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is confident in promoting sustained and healthy economic development, with plans to implement equipment update loan interest subsidy policies and issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement in July [1][5] - The NDRC has launched an action plan to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" program, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [3][4] Group 2: Investment and Funding - The NDRC has allocated 16 billion yuan for the "work-for-relief" program, supporting over 3,900 projects and expected to help 380,000 people increase their income [4] - A total of 3 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer goods replacement, with 1.62 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [6] Group 3: Sales and Market Impact - Consumer goods replacement has driven sales of over 1.4 trillion yuan this year, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances and digital products [6][7] - The "National Subsidy" program has led to a sales boost of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories by May 31, nearing the projected annual target of 1.3 trillion yuan for 2024 [7] Group 4: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The expansion of subsidy coverage to include digital products and an increase in the number of supported categories from 8 to 12 for home appliances has injected vitality into multiple industries [8] - The combination of national subsidies and promotional events has resulted in substantial sales growth, with some brands experiencing over 200% year-on-year increases [7][8]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old for new" consumption policy in July, ensuring orderly implementation throughout the year [2] - A total of 200 billion yuan will be allocated to support equipment upgrades through special long-term government bonds, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [2] - Consumers can receive subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, with a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price, capped at 500 yuan per item [2] Group 2 - The implementation of vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies will be managed at the provincial level, with financial support being allocated based on performance in 2024 [3] - Subsidies for new vehicles will vary based on the price range, with fuel vehicles receiving up to 13,000 yuan and new energy vehicles up to 15,000 yuan depending on the price bracket [3] - Consumers can receive a 15% subsidy for purchasing energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item [4] Group 3 - A 15% subsidy will be provided for materials used in partial renovations of old houses, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per household [5]

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Yitang Co., Ltd. has a new stock offering with the subscription code 787729, an issue price of 8.45 yuan per share, and a subscription limit of 41,000 shares [1] Group 2: Government Policies and Initiatives - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, focusing on ten aspects including standardizing credit information disclosure and simplifying application materials [2] - The Central Committee and State Council released opinions on river protection and governance, aiming for a modern flood prevention system by 2035 and improved ecological quality [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumption policy to be released in July [3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability regarding rare earth export approvals [3] - The Financial Regulatory Authority and the People's Bank of China released a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance over the next five years [3] Group 3: Company News - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [5] - North Navigation reported normal operating conditions with no significant changes in its main business [6] - Silver Seat Co., Ltd. noted that sales from Bubble Mart products account for less than 0.02% of its revenue [6] - The controlling shareholder of Songyang Resources is planning a change in control, leading to a stock suspension starting June 27 [6] - Asia-Pacific Co., Ltd. received a project for brake calipers and EPB with a total sales amount of approximately 640 million yuan [7] - BlueFocus Communication Group has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing in Hong Kong [7]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation is stable, with a focus on maintaining progress while seeking stability amid a complex external environment [2] - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the service production index grew by 6.2%, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate in 2024, while fixed asset investment showed steady growth, with manufacturing investment up by 8.5% [2] Policy Implementation - The "Two New" policies are being actively implemented, with significant funding allocated for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [3] - A total of 200 billion yuan has been allocated for long-term special government bond support for equipment updates, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already distributed across 7,500 projects [3] - The sales of goods related to the old-for-new consumer program exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year, indicating the effectiveness of the policy [3] Employment and Investment - The government has initiated a new action plan to promote employment and income for key groups through labor-intensive projects, with 16.5 billion yuan allocated for 3,900 projects expected to create jobs for 380,000 people [4] - The proportion of labor remuneration in central project funding has been increased from over 30% to 40%, enhancing support for local employment [4][5] Energy Supply - The national power supply and demand balance is generally secure, with an expected increase of about 10 million kilowatts in peak electricity load this summer [6] - The government is taking measures to enhance energy supply capabilities and has coordinated efforts to ensure stable production and supply of coal and natural gas [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is effectively boosting investment, consumption, and transformation in China, with significant sales growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, leading to over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales from trade-in programs this year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funding for consumer goods trade-in programs in July, ensuring a structured and balanced approach to fund allocation throughout the year [3][6] - A total of 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds will be allocated to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][6] - The NDRC aims to enhance project management and financial oversight for equipment upgrades, with 200 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates this year [6] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Sales Data - As of May 31, 2025, the trade-in program has generated 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [5] - The program has seen significant participation, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and millions of purchases in home appliances and digital products [5] Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Developments - The Guangdong provincial government has confirmed that it will not prematurely end the trade-in policy, addressing concerns about temporary suspensions in certain cities due to system upgrades [5] - Recent policies from various departments emphasize financial support for key consumption areas, including trade-in programs for old vehicles and appliances, aiming to enhance consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 300 billion yuan in trade-in subsidies is projected to represent approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024, potentially boosting retail sales growth by about 1 percentage point this year [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - On Thursday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased again, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%. Factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, and the total inventory increased by 0.99 million tons. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, terminal demand is resilient, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke in furnace materials supports steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are consolidating at a low level with the green bar shrinking. Operationally, conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,103 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,510,669 lots, up 263 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net position: 106,068 lots, down 352 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 70,514 tons, down 1,779 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 700 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 138.9416 million tons, down 0.3898 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 811,200 tons, down 60,400 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3401 million tons, down 87,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.84%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.81%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2724 million tons, up 0.0179 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.59%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 782,200 tons, up 17,000 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6294 million tons, down 7,100 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 86.55 million tons, up 0.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 10.1 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; factory inventory was 782,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons; social inventory was 2.6294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons; total inventory was 3.4116 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0099 million tons; apparent demand was 3.2625 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0444 million tons [2] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. At the same time, relevant parties will be coordinated to formulate monthly and weekly plans for using national subsidy funds in different fields to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been continuously adjusting this week, significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw. With the current interest rates remaining at a low level, profit - taking pressure has pushed interest rates slightly higher. The market's trading focus is unclear due to uncertain policy impacts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band - based allocations [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.950，down 0.02%，成交量52163，down 1100；TF主力收盘价106.170，unchanged，成交量38895，down 930；TS主力收盘价102.510，unchanged，成交量24312，down 514；TL主力收盘价120.720，up 0.1%，成交量72122，down 2020 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.16，down 0.01；T2512 - 2509价差0.03，up 0.02；TF2512 - 2509价差0.07，down 0.02；TS2512 - 2509价差0.13，down 0.00；T09 - TL09价差 - 11.77，down 0.09；TF09 - T09价差 - 2.78，up 0.03；TS09 - T09价差 - 6.44，up 0.04；TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.66，up 0.02 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量202431，down 2650；T前20名多头191730，down 1983；T前20名空头206973，down 1544；T前20名净空仓15243，up 439；TF主力持仓量160108，down 1028；TF前20名多头147895，down 599；TF前20名空头170948，down 264；TF前20名净空仓23053，up 335；TS主力持仓量118869，up 621；TS前20名多头88068，up 211；TS前20名空头106959，up 919；TS前20名净空仓18891，up 708；TL主力持仓量115275，up 622；TL前20名多头109182，up 984；TL前20名空头116993，up 1959；TL前20名净空仓7811，up 975 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250007.IB(6y）101.299，up 0.0155；2500802.IB(6y）99.0955，up 0.0001；240020.IB(4y)101.0633，down 0.0215；240020.IB(4y)100.8844，down 0.0667；250006.IB(1.7y)100.3688，up 0.0158；240010.IB(2y)100.8301，up 0.0069；210005.IB(17y)136.4191，down 0.5585；210014.IB(18y)132.6415，down 0.2480 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3650%，up 0.50bp；3y yield 1.4050%，down 0.25bp；5y yield 1.4950%，up 0.50bp；7y yield 1.5900%，up 1.00bp；10y yield 1.6535%，up 0.75bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight rate 1.3788%，down 4.12bp；Shibor overnight rate 1.3700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 7 - day rate 1.6668%，down 2.32bp；Shibor 7 - day rate 1.6700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 14 - day rate 1.7300%，down 2.00bp；Shibor 14 - day rate 1.7360%，up 1.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%，unchanged；5y LPR 3.5%，unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale 5093 billion yuan，maturity scale 2035 billion yuan，interest rate 1.4% for 7 - day，net investment 3058 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects；The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on June 25；The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and formulate a monthly and weekly national subsidy fund usage plan [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On June 26 at 20:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 21 and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1；On June 27 at 20:30, focus on the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May；On June 27 at 22:00, focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in June [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash started to converge this week, and basis convergence trading may continue. Futures are expected to decline at a slower pace. It is recommended to go short on the main soda ash contract [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of going short on rallies should be maintained. The supply shows little change, and demand is expected to weaken further. The subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, and the expected rebound height and strength will be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1180 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,529,195 lots, down 32,209 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 248,998 lots, up 58,828 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,693 tons, down 5 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts is 7 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 31 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,435,796 lots, down 9,579 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 lots, up 7,865 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. The spread between the September and January contracts is - 49 yuan, up 2 yuan. The basis is 39 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1197 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; East China light soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 175.59 tons, up 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. The in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons. The number of in - production production lines is 223, down 1. The inventory of glass enterprises is 69,887,000 weight boxes, up 202,000 weight boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of newly started area in the real estate sector is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of completed area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang attended the Business Community Representatives' Symposium at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum. - The Iranian Defense Minister arrived in China to participate in the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$9.42 billion in the market as the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hit the weak - side convertibility undertaking. - XPeng Motors stated that the overseas market is tightening the import of zero - kilometer used cars, and XPeng does not adopt this export model. - He Lifeng pointed out during an inspection in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and boost consumption to better promote high - quality economic development. - The first pension - themed corporate bond in China was successfully issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. - The third - batch funds for the replacement of consumer goods with new ones will be allocated in July [2].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will issue the third batch of funds for the consumption goods replacement program in July, ensuring the policy is implemented in an orderly manner throughout the year [1] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of "timeliness" and "balance" in the allocation of funds, with plans to develop monthly and weekly usage schedules for national subsidies [1] - A total of 200 billion yuan will be allocated to support equipment upgrades through special long-term government bonds, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [1]