All right. So, you're saying there's hope for one name in the space. I think it's a name that a lot of people like to shop at, maybe get gas at.What's the name and why is there hope for this one name. >> Yeah, it's it's Costco. So, yesterday we added Costco top pick list.And as you look at Costco has more of an affluent customer, uh, you know, more of a the best value proposition I think across retail and you've seen consistent strength while other retails have struggled. So, in the last month, Costco put u ...

Core Viewpoint - Costco is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its affluent customer base and superior value proposition, which has allowed it to maintain consistent strength amidst challenges faced by other retailers [1][2]. Costco - Costco has shown more than a mid-single-digit comparable sales growth on top of a strong gain from the previous year, indicating strong momentum expected to continue through the holiday season [2]. - The company benefits from inflationary pressures as higher-income and middle-income consumers seek value, leading them to Costco for its competitive pricing [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - Walmart is also positioned to perform well in various economic conditions, gaining market share through its value and convenience offerings [8]. - Ulta Beauty is noted for its innovation and strong momentum, particularly in the beauty and wellness sector, where spending remains robust even in challenging economic times [8][9]. Consumer Trends - The consumer spending backdrop is mixed, with limited winners in the current environment, particularly in consumer staples, which are at lows not seen since the late 90s [12]. - Shark Ninja is mentioned as a discretionary consumer durable player with upcoming earnings that may indicate a shift in sales momentum towards Q4 [13].

Small Business Hiring & Labor Market - Paycheck data indicates moderation in small business hiring and slowing hourly earnings growth [1] - Small businesses with less than 50 employees show amazing stability, with less than 1 percentage point change over the last 12 months [3] - The small business segment (under 50 employees) is facing a labor supply issue, with constrictions on immigration and challenges in finding qualified workers [6][7] - Weekly hours worked reached a near decade high, indicating employers are reluctant to hire new staff [5][6] - Over the last two months, there has been an increase of over 3% consecutively in hours worked, a trend not seen in a decade [8] - Increased hours worked at this level typically precede employment increases in subsequent quarters [9] Wage Inflation & Economic Impact - Hourly wage growth is below 3% for the 15th consecutive month, indicating wages are below the pace of annualized inflation [10] - Keeping labor costs below 3% is expected to contribute to moving inflation down towards the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [12]

Core Insights - Corporate earnings are increasingly significant in the absence of key government data, serving as a guide for investors amid trade battles, inflation, and a weakening labor market [1] - Despite a generally positive earnings season, there is an underlying concern regarding consumer affordability issues that persist from the previous season [2] Earnings Performance - As of last week, 81% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS consensus, while 76% surpassed sales expectations, although both metrics have slightly declined from previous updates [3] - EPS beats are marginally above last quarter's levels, but sales beats are tracking slightly below the prior season [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts believe earnings are providing a solid foundation for the US equity market, but sentiment is lower compared to the last reporting season, indicating that the peak of the earnings story may have passed [4] Sector Insights - The tech sector reported strength in AI and mobile, while consumer companies expressed concerns about current market conditions [6] - Tariffs emerged as a significant theme, with companies noting early shopper purchases to avoid levies and ongoing hesitancy in decision-making due to tariff-related uncertainties [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer-related companies reported a price-sensitive and value-conscious consumer base, with Kimberly-Clark executives indicating no immediate relief for consumer pressures [8][10] - Other companies highlighted deteriorating consumer sentiment, citing challenges in housing affordability, reduced travel stays, lower demand for vehicle repairs, and dining pressures among low- to middle-income customers [10]

His forecast? “We're in a period that's conducive for massive price appreciation in a variety of assets.”He noted that in 1999, the Federal Reserve was raising rates and the federal government was running a budget surplus. Today, investors are staring at potential rate cuts (one has already happened since Jones spoke) and a 6% deficit — a combination he called the “most unique and aggressive fiscal and monetary conditions” since the post-war era.The reason behind Jones’ confidence in a potentially bigger ru ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing criticism for maintaining high interest rates, with some arguing that this is constraining lending and economic growth, particularly for small businesses [3][4] - Stephen Miran, a new Fed governor, advocates for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates, emphasizing recession risks over inflation concerns, while Jerome Powell remains cautious about any rate reductions due to economic uncertainty [2][6] - The current high borrowing costs in the U.S. are compared unfavorably to those in Japan and the EU, suggesting that the U.S. economy's fundamentals are stronger than those of these regions [3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that monetary inflation, rather than external factors like tariffs or production disruptions, is a key concern for the Fed, with gold prices doubling in the past two years indicating potential future inflation [5][6] - The Fed's approach of manipulating interest rates is questioned, as historical data shows that high interest rates did not effectively combat inflation in the past, and ultra-low rates post-2008 did not stimulate significant economic growth [8][9] - A call is made for a stable dollar and lower tax rates and regulations to support stock and bond markets, suggesting that without these measures, the current bull market may be at risk [9]

Core Insights - Money market accounts (MMAs) offer higher interest rates compared to traditional savings accounts, providing liquidity and flexibility for long-term savings [1][3] - The national average interest rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while the best rates exceed 4% APY, with some accounts offering rates above 5% APY [3][7][13] - Historical fluctuations in MMA rates are closely tied to changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rate, with significant drops following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [4][5][6] Interest Rate Trends - Following the 2008 financial crisis, MMA rates fell to between 0.10% and 0.50% due to the Fed's near-zero federal funds rate [5] - The Fed's gradual interest rate increases post-recession led to higher MMA yields, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused another decline in rates [6] - Starting in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed resulted in historically high MMA rates, with many accounts offering rates of 4.00% or higher by late 2023 [7] Current Market Conditions - As of now, MMA rates remain high by historical standards but are beginning to decline following recent Fed rate cuts [8] - Online banks and credit unions are currently offering the highest MMA rates [8] Considerations for Choosing MMAs - When selecting an MMA, factors such as minimum balance requirements, fees, and withdrawal limits should be considered alongside interest rates [9][10] - Some MMAs may require a minimum balance of $5,000 or more to earn the highest rates, and monthly maintenance fees can reduce interest earnings [10] - It is crucial to ensure that the chosen account is insured by the FDIC or NCUA, which protects deposits up to $250,000 per institution [11]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - US Treasury yields increased, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 4.10% [1] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with differing views on rate cuts and inflation concerns among key officials [1] - Fed cut the Federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%, characterized as a 'hawkish cut' [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US manufacturing contracted in October, with ISM manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7 from 49.1 in September [3] - Price pressures in manufacturing eased to 58.0 from 61.9, while the employment component rose to 46.0 from 45.3 [3] - Anticipation of mixed signals in upcoming ISM services PMI data, which could impact market reactions [3] Group 3: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Update - RBA decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%, with minimal market surprise following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation [4] - RBA's projections indicate inflation will remain above the target band until mid-2026, despite rising unemployment [5] - Only one rate reduction is anticipated in the coming year, reflecting conflicting economic signals [5]

Market Overview - The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down approximately 0.9%, finishing near 8813.7 after a previous close of 8894.8 [1][7] - The market session had a day range between 8801.9 and 8894.8 points, with liquidity remaining moderate [1][6] RBA Announcement - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 3.6%, confirming monetary policy stability amid higher inflation concerns [1][7] Top Gainers - Droneshield Ltd surged 8.62% to close at AUD 4.16, with a remarkable 337.89% price increase over the past year and a market cap of AUD 3.6 billion [7] - NEXTDC Ltd rose 4.24% to AUD 16.49 [7] - Light & Wonder Inc advanced 3.54% to AUD 116.00 despite an 18.67% decline over the last 12 months [7] - Austal Ltd gained 2.66% to finish at AUD 6.96 [7] Notable Declines - Nexgen Energy (Canada) Ltd led losses with a 7.03% drop to AUD 14.03 [7] - SILEX Systems Ltd declined 6.02% to AUD 9.37 [7] - Eagers Automotive Ltd fell 5.43% to AUD 32.55 [7] - Brambles Ltd slipped 5.26% to AUD 23.41, despite a market cap of AUD 32 billion and a 25.66% rise over the year [7] Major Companies - BHP Group Limited saw a decline of approximately 1.91%, closing at AUD 42.54, with a 52-week high of AUD 44.55, indicating a current drop of around 3.04% from that peak [7] - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) closed at AUD 174.11, down by almost 0.82% on the day [5][7] Market Influences - The timing of the Melbourne Cup holiday period traditionally affects market trading volumes and participation [7] - Concerns about rising household costs and inflationary pressures are influencing cautious trading sentiments, particularly in consumer-dependent sectors [7]

These robust businesses can stand the test of time in your portfolio.Growth stocks with strong fundamentals and the ability to maintain or increase pricing power even during inflationary periods are attractive to investors seeking to outperform the market over the long run. However, it bears mentioning that investing in growth stocks, particularly during periods of uncertainty, requires a long-term investment horizon, as well as patience because market fluctuations are both normal and inevitable.With that i ...