金十数据6月3日讯，在判断关税对通胀的影响时，标准的经济模型是直截了当的：这应该是一次性的价 格上涨。但美联储博斯蒂克周二表示，特朗普政府关税的不确定性和快速变化的政策使得情况比教科书 所暗示的更加复杂，也不那么明确。"教科书上关于关税的概念是……关税只征收一次，每个人都知道 它是什么。""这不是我们过去几个月所处的环境，所以有一个问题是，人们将如何反应——接受一项持 续很长时间的关税政策变化。"博斯蒂克说，他主要担心的是，这种长期的、渐进式的关税政策转变会 如何影响商业和消费者的行为。如果企业和家庭开始预期持续的关税调整，可能会导致更持久的通胀压 力。 博斯蒂克回应：为什么美联储不能假设关税引起的通胀是一次性影响？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses uncertainty regarding the assertion that tariffs will have only a temporary impact on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Goolsbee does not confidently assert that tariffs will only have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a need for further analysis [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the economy and labor market face downside risks, while inflation is under upward pressure [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may become most pronounced in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing potential downturns, which could affect overall growth and stability [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of vulnerability, suggesting a need for caution in economic forecasts [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are expected to rise, indicating challenges for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power [1] - The timing of tariff impacts on inflation suggests a delayed effect, with significant implications for economic planning and strategy in 2025 [1]

美联储卡什卡利：就我个人而言，我认为反对忽视关税对通胀影响的论点更有说服力。这些观点支持美 联储维持政策利率不变的立场，直至关税路径、关税对价格和经济活动的影响变得更加明朗为止。 ...

Core Viewpoint - KPMG's Chief Economist Diane Swonk indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - There may be a period of "deficit" in the U.S. economy before the FOMC decides to lower interest rates again [1] - The probability of an economic recession in the U.S. is estimated at 60% [1]

金十数据5月8日讯，Natixis 经济学家Benito Berber说，美联储主席鲍威尔可能对关税对通胀的影响没有 什么可说的，因为"解放日"之后从中国运来的货物尚未登陆美国市场。Berber预计通胀影响将在6月份 显现，预计美联储将按兵不动至9月，届时将开始降息并持续到2026年。 经济学家：鲍威尔可能缺乏关税对通胀影响的信息 ...