就关税对通胀的影响，与会官员意见存在分歧。一些官员认为，如果不考虑今年关税上调的影响，通胀 将接近目标；另一些官员则表示，即使排除今年关税上调的影响，通胀朝着2%目标的进展也已停滞。 在9月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员几乎全部投票支持降息25个基 点，仅一名成员投票反对该决定，并倾向于降息50个基点。此外，绝大多数美联储官员预计到年底至少 还有两次降息，每次25个基点，约一半官员预计到年底将降息三次。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约10月8日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会8日公布的9月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于 就业数据弱于预期，且就业下行风险明显上升，美联储官员总体上近期政策利率预期已走低。 美联储9月17日结束货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%之 间。会议纪要显示，与会官员注意到上半年实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长放缓，劳动力市场状况有所 疲软，消费者价格通胀率仍然略有上升，通胀自年初以来持续上升，并略高于美联储2%的长期目标。 ...

Core Views - The newly confirmed Fed Governor Steven Myron expresses a differentiated view on inflation, stating that there is no material inflation from tariffs and no evidence supporting that tariffs are driving inflation higher [2][3][4] - The Governor highlights that changes in border policy have been significant inflation drivers, particularly in the housing market, where an influx of immigrants can lead to increased shelter prices [5] Economic Indicators - The Governor notes that the supply of homes is relatively fixed in the short run, and significant population shocks can lead to price increases in shelter [5] - There are reports of negative net migration, with approximately 1.5 million migrants leaving the United States in the first half of the year, which is expected to exert a disinflationary effect [6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Governor was an outlier in the recent voting and dot plot, advocating for five cuts this year, while most committee members expect one or two more cuts [7] - A forthcoming speech will provide a detailed account of the Governor's economic views, including the arithmetic and economics behind his position on monetary policy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the US stock market and inflation despite concerns over tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the market's fears may be misplaced [2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been underestimated due to a focus on the end effects rather than the transmission process, which allows for a gradual adjustment [3][9]. - The actual tariff rate is currently at 10.6%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of 16-17%, indicating that the immediate impact on consumer prices has been limited [7][9]. - Tariff costs are primarily absorbed by exporters and importers, with consumers only bearing 8-10% of the costs, which further dilutes the immediate inflationary impact [16][18]. Group 2: Transmission Delays and Cost Sharing - The transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices is slow, with delays of 2-3 months due to logistics and customs processes [11][12]. - The share of taxable imports has increased, but the overall impact on inflation remains controlled due to trade agreements and exemptions [12][19]. - Inventory accumulation has provided a buffer against immediate price increases, allowing businesses to manage costs more effectively [12][19]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's concerns about tariffs and inflation have created a divergence between expectations and reality, presenting potential investment opportunities [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be influenced by how much of the tariff burden is passed on to consumers, affecting corporate profit margins and inflation metrics [5][19]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distribution of tariff costs among exporters, importers, and consumers to gauge future market conditions [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with expectations for further cuts in the next three to six months based on economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Waller highlights that the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and labor market weakness is becoming a concern, suggesting that risk management necessitates a rate cut [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' figures were revised down by 258,000, raising employment concerns [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - Waller's speech emphasizes the ongoing risks in the labor market and suggests that the Fed should overlook the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - The recent FOMC meeting saw Waller and another member dissenting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut instead, marking a notable division among Fed officials regarding tariff impacts on the economy [3]. Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - Waller has emerged as a strong candidate for the next Fed Chair, with his support for rate cuts aligning with the timeline for potential nominations by the Trump administration [3][4]. - Economic advisor Stephen Miran praised Waller's performance at the Fed, particularly his inflation predictions and policy recommendations [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further reductions in the next three to six months due to potential inflation rates nearing 2% and increasing risks in the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17, contingent on upcoming employment data [1] - He emphasizes that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on subsequent economic data [1] - Waller's stance reflects a shift in the Federal Reserve's approach, as he previously opposed maintaining rates during the last policy meeting [2] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Waller highlights ongoing risks in the labor market, suggesting that the potential for adverse economic slowdown is increasing [1][2] - He argues that the Federal Reserve should disregard the temporary inflationary effects of tariffs, indicating a belief that these pressures will not have a lasting impact [2] Group 3: Political Context - The comments come in the wake of President Trump's dismissal of another Fed governor, Lisa Cook, marking an unprecedented level of pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Waller's remarks are significant as they occur amidst a historical legal battle that could affect the independence of the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach towards potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing the heightened uncertainty that complicates monetary policy decisions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders currently estimate a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech [1]. - The market is pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Powell noted that while the labor market remains robust and the economy shows resilience, downside risks are increasing [3][6]. - He warned that increased tariffs could lead to new inflationary pressures, raising the risk of stagflation, which the Fed aims to avoid [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Framework Review - Powell discussed the Fed's five-year review of its policy framework, acknowledging past mistakes in underestimating inflation, which reached a 40-year high [7]. - The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-term inflation target of 2%, which is seen as crucial for maintaining stable inflation expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on monetary policy due to high inflation risks stemming from trade tariffs, with most policymakers preferring to wait for more evidence before making any rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC voted 9-2 to maintain the federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple Fed officials voted against the decision to hold rates steady [3]. - The minutes reveal ongoing debates among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the appropriate policy stance, with a general expectation of short-term inflation increases [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, a weak U.S. labor market report showed significantly lower-than-expected job growth, with the unemployment rate rising and labor force participation dropping to its lowest level since late 2022 [5]. - The derivatives market has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point reduction priced in [5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.9% month-over-month, with a year-over-year core PPI growth of 3.7%, the highest since March [5]. - Economists express concerns that the uneven transmission of tariffs will continue to push inflation higher in the coming months, complicating the Fed's ability to distinguish between one-time tariff effects and long-term inflation pressures [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole is anticipated to clarify his stance on whether to prioritize protecting the labor market or addressing inflation deviating from the Fed's 2% target [6]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's dual mandate faces challenges, with Powell likely indicating that the pace of rate cuts will depend on how inflationary pressures are offset by a slowing labor market [6].

Economic Indicators - In July 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[10] - The PPI unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market forecast of 0.2%[10] - Trade service prices jumped 2.0% month-on-month, indicating that wholesalers and retailers, rather than consumers, are bearing the tariff pressure[10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, despite the recent PPI data[3] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to be a key determinant for the Fed's rate decision[3] - Market pricing indicates there may be two more rate cuts within the year[23] Risks and Considerations - If tariff costs significantly transmit to the CPI, leading to sustained inflation above expectations, it could impact the Fed's rate cut schedule[4][24] - The core CPI has risen to 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures that need further data to assess the Fed's policy direction[21]

Group 1 - The effective tariff rate paid by importers is significantly lower than the official rate, which has helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [1][3] - As of June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - Importers have adjusted their sourcing strategies, turning to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, contributing to a lower effective tariff rate [4] Group 2 - The current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions that the average tariff rate could rise from approximately 10% to around 15% [6] - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [7] - Companies are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [9]

Core Insights - Despite the highest tariff barriers in nearly a century, inflation has not surged as economists feared, attributed to widespread exemptions and changes in trade patterns that have kept effective tariff rates lower than official figures [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Barclays' analysis shows that the average effective tariff rate in May was approximately 9%, significantly lower than the previously estimated 12% [1] - In June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2] - The overall effective tariff rate has been reduced due to these exemptions, which has mitigated the expected inflationary pressures [2] Group 2: Importer Behavior and Inventory Adjustments - Importers have shifted to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, resulting in a lower actual tariff rate than the headline averages [3] - Some importers, like those in the used car business, have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, leading to a temporary decline in import volumes [3] - Analysts warn that the current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions of an increase to around 15% as loopholes are closed [3] Group 3: Future Price Increases and Cost Pass-Through - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [4] - Potential future tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could lead to greater economic impacts [5] - Companies are beginning to pass increased costs onto consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [5]