美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度会议上发表了备受期待的讲话。他谨慎地释放了未来可能降息 的信号，同时强调高度的不确定性正使货币政策制定变得更加困难。 交易员目前预计9月美联储将降息的概率约为90%，而鲍威尔讲话前这一概率为75%。交易员再次完全定价美联储年底前降息两次。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL-CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 175-200 | 200-225 | | 225-250 250-275 275-300 | | 300-325 | 325-350 | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400-425 4 | | 2025-09-17 | | | | -- | -- | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75.5% | | 2025-10-29 | ...

2025.08.21 在上月的表决中，联邦公开市场委员会以9-2的表决结果决定按兵不动。美联储负责监管的副主席米歇 尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒都投票反对维持基准利率不变的决定，转而支持降息25个基点。 这是自1993年以来，首次有多名美联储理事投下反对票。 会议纪要称："几乎所有与会者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50% 是合适的。" 本文字数：1579，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（21日）凌晨，美联储公布今年7月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，由于新贸易关税的不确定影响，通胀风险仍然很高。虽然有呼吁降息的声音，大多数政策制 定者认为，货币政策可以再等一段时间，以获得更多关于关税对通胀影响的证据。 7月会议立场仍偏谨慎 然而，美联储也有谨慎的理由，特朗普政府的激进关税有可能重新引发通货膨胀。7月份美国核心消费 者价格指数（CPI）升至3.1%的五个月高位，美国生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，核心PPI同比 增幅3.7%，为今年3月份以来的最高水平。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schw ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-08-19 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《宽松基调落实落细，信贷引导防范资 金空转》 - 2025.08.18 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：关税压力尚未传导至消费终端 ⚫ 核心观点： 7月美国CPI和PPI数据并未显示出关税对价格较为显著的传导。 上周二公布的 CPI 数据基本符合市场预期，市场降息热情被点燃。但 随后周四公布的 PPI 数据意外大幅升温，环比增速为 0.9%，远超市场 预测的 0.2%。其中金融服务、机票等非商品领域因素推动 PPI 数据上 行，显示 PPI 超预期或主要受服务价格推动。 此外，贸易服务价格环比跃升 2.0%，而本月 CPI 并未出现大幅波 动，显示批发商与零售商而非消费者正承受关税压力。原因在于受关 税影响较大的行业相对消费者并没有很强的定价权，难以将价格上涨 传递给消费者。 PPI 中机票、牙医等分项波动较大，未 ...

Group 1 - The effective tariff rate paid by importers is significantly lower than the official rate, which has helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [1][3] - As of June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - Importers have adjusted their sourcing strategies, turning to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, contributing to a lower effective tariff rate [4] Group 2 - The current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions that the average tariff rate could rise from approximately 10% to around 15% [6] - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [7] - Companies are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [9]

尽管美国正面临近一个世纪以来最高的关税壁垒，但经济学家普遍担心的通胀飙升并未成为现实。一个 日益获得认可的解释是，由于广泛的豁免和贸易模式的转变，进口商实际支付的有效关税税率远低于官 方公布的水平，从而缓冲了对消费价格的直接冲击。 最新的研究为这一观点提供了数据支撑。根据巴克莱银行（Barclays）经济学家的分析，今年5月，经进 口量加权调整后的平均关税税率约为9%，显著低于其先前根据白宫公告估算的12%。这一发现揭示了 美国经济展现韧性的部分原因，即关税的实际影响比普遍认为的更为温和。 这一现象也解释了为何消费价格的上涨速度没有部分分析师预期的那么快。关税对通胀的影响一直是一 个充满争议的话题，特朗普本周也断言关税并未引发通胀。然而，尽管整体通胀图景好于预期，但部分 商品价格已出现上涨，最新的批发价格指数也创下三年来最大月度涨幅，表明潜在的通胀压力依然存 在。 不过，分析认为，当前的平稳局面可能是暂时的。随着现有的关税漏洞被堵上，以及企业开始将累积的 成本转嫁给消费者，关税对物价的全面影响可能尚未到来，未来几个月经济将面临新的考验。 豁免清单解释通胀"谜题" 白宫已经表示，将从本月晚些时候开始暂停"最低豁 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium has evolved into a key platform for showcasing the policy thoughts of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, amidst increasing political pressure and uncertain economic data [1][2] - Powell faces three core and challenging questions that will shape the potential path of the global macroeconomy and markets in the coming months [1] - The traditional economic theory that tariffs directly drive inflation is being challenged by current U.S. economic conditions, where the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth does not seem to stem from tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - There is a complex picture regarding import prices and domestic pricing strategies, with U.S. small businesses absorbing costs without raising prices, which may threaten future investment and profitability [1][2] - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to downplay the direct impact of tariffs on inflation while emphasizing data dependency to retain flexibility for the September interest rate decision [2][4] - The health of the labor market is a critical pillar of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but recent conflicting narratives about employment data create a challenging environment for Powell [2][3] Group 3 - If there is a significant labor supply shortage, businesses would typically raise wages, yet wage growth remains moderate, undermining the credibility of the labor shortage narrative [3] - Powell's stance on the labor market is crucial; he must balance acknowledging potential risks without alarming the market excessively [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to ongoing calls for interest rate cuts from the White House, complicating Powell's decision-making process [3][4] Group 4 - The market is divided on the extent of potential interest rate cuts in September and throughout the year, reflecting high uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - Powell is likely to use the Jackson Hole platform to reclaim the narrative on monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's goal of maintaining economic expansion and the need for timely and flexible policy decisions [4] - The upcoming speech is seen as a balancing act for Powell, as he navigates market anxieties, economic data warnings, and the need to uphold the central bank's independence [4]

Group 1 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a notable decline in gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, while rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of the Trump administration's expansionary tariffs on consumers [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing June's 2.9% and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The prices of non-food and non-gasoline commodities increased for the second consecutive month by 0.2% in July, with specific categories like footwear experiencing a notable rise of 1.4%, the highest monthly increase in over four years [3] Group 2 - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for consumers, with projections indicating a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 due to the tariffs [3][5] - Furniture and bedding prices rose by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices surged by 2.2%, marking the highest increase in over two years [3] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is anticipated to reach around 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by rising retail prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [5] Group 3 - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [6] - Economists expect that the high tariffs will lead to a gradual increase in prices rather than an immediate spike, indicating a slow decline in purchasing power for consumers [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a continuous acceleration in inflation, as companies will recalibrate costs and share the burden with consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in September due to stable inflation data and poor employment figures [1][12] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month's figure, while the core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above expectations [6][12] - The market reacted positively to the CPI data, with U.S. stock futures rising and major indices opening higher [1][2] Group 2 - The CPI data indicates that housing costs were a significant driver of inflation, while energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6][9] - Analysts believe that as long as inflation remains manageable, the Fed will have sufficient confidence to proceed with rate cuts [7][12] - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut in September has increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [12] Group 3 - Economic experts note that the impact of tariffs on inflation is still unfolding, with consumers having absorbed about one-third of the tariff burden so far [10] - Predictions indicate that core CPI and core PCE inflation rates could reach 3.3% by December 2025, but may drop to 2.5% if tariff effects are excluded [10] - The upcoming Producer Price Index report and the preferred inflation indicator, the July PCE, will be released soon, which may further clarify the Fed's stance on interest rates [12]

然而最新经济数据显示，截至7月的三个月内就业增长显著放缓，消费者支出也呈现疲软态势，市场对 美联储持续观望的态度已有质疑声音。 亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔.博斯蒂克表示，他仍维持今年可能实施一次降息的预期，但强调需 重点关注特朗普政府关税政策对通胀的潜在影响。在佛罗里达州首席财务官协会组织的虚拟讨论中，博 斯蒂克指出，当前最关键的问题在于判断关税带来的价格上涨是"一次性事件"，还是将引发更持久的结 构性变化。他直言，有理由对"本轮关税是否符合典型的一次性、暂时性通胀特征"持怀疑态度。 与美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒的观点形成对比，后者认为关税对通胀的影响可被忽略且属短期现象。 值得注意的是，沃勒在上周美联储维持利率不变的投票中，是唯一支持降息25个基点的官员。 博斯蒂克则强调，关税调整并非"某天醒来就明确知晓结果"的单一事件，其频繁变动反而延长了市场对 价格走势的担忧周期，可能推高通胀预期。他进一步预测，供应链重构带来的结构性变化或将持续至 2026年，这增加了通胀压力长期化的风险。 目前美联储仍保持基准利率稳定，这一决策延续了年初以来的政策基调。美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔近 期表示，尽管经济存在下行风险，但 ...