贵金属周报 沃什提名出任美联储主席，贵金属遭受 重挫 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周五，沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球贵金 属市场遭遇史诗级暴跌，特别是COMEX白银期货价格一度 跌超35%失守75美元/盎司关口，COMEX黄金期货价格一度 跌近13%失守4700美元/盎司关口。NYMEX铂钯期货价格盘 中也跌幅超过20%。虽然，贵金属期货价格尾盘都有所反 弹收回部分跌幅，但仍创单日历史最大跌幅。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：美国非农就业数据不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2026 年 2 月 2 日 ⚫ 虽然沃什的提名还需获得参议院批准，但目前基本可以确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Lambardelli, expressed concerns about the upward risks to inflation in the UK and suggested a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts as the central bank nears the end of its current easing cycle [1] Group 1 - There are increasing resource pressures in the economy that are likely to drive up prices, as evidenced by signs in the labor market [1] - The Deputy Governor is less certain about the current limits of monetary policy compared to other members of the Monetary Policy Committee [1] - A recommendation was made to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts to better assess and navigate the situation as the end of the easing cycle approaches [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in October, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed shifted its focus from employment market slowdown risks to inflationary pressures in its economic outlook[2] - Future rate cut prospects remain highly uncertain, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion"[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing but remaining low[4] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is considered somewhat elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary concerns[5] - The Fed plans to halt the reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, which may signal a shift in monetary policy approach[5] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Sensitivity - The Fed's risk management approach now prioritizes inflation risks over employment market risks, reflecting a dynamic assessment of economic conditions[6] - AI-related capital expenditures are noted to be less sensitive to interest rates, potentially mitigating the impact of rising rates on the economy[9] - The cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points, combined with the cessation of balance sheet reduction, may lead to a perception that price tools are sufficiently accommodative for current economic risks[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is considering tightening monetary policy if the certainty of the expected economic outlook increases [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that inflation risks are rising, and the inflation rate may reach targets earlier than anticipated [1] - BOJ board member Tamura Naoki stated that the current policy interest rate is still far from neutral levels, suggesting a need to approach neutral rates to avoid future aggressive rate hikes [1] Group 2 - Tamura Naoki mentioned that the situation has entered a phase of assessing whether to raise interest rates due to increasing risks of price hikes [3] - He also pointed out that despite temporary increases in food prices, there is a possibility of a broader and sustained rise in prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's most hawkish policy committee member, Naoki Tamura, advocates for an interest rate hike due to increasing inflation risks, maintaining his stance from the previous month's policy meeting [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Naoki Tamura believes the Bank of Japan is at a stage where it should consider raising policy rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing and bring rates closer to neutral levels [1] - The probability of a rate hike during the upcoming meeting has dropped significantly from approximately 70% to around 15% since the end of September [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Tamura suggests that the Bank of Japan may achieve its stable 2% inflation target sooner than the official forecast of the second half of the prediction period ending March 2028 [2] - He warns that if the central bank falls behind in addressing inflation, it may have to raise rates rapidly to stabilize prices, potentially causing severe damage to the Japanese economy [2] Group 3: Political Context - Recent political developments in Japan have led to market volatility, particularly following the unexpected victory of a pro-monetary easing candidate in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election [2] - The dissolution of the ruling coalition has cast doubt on the prospects of the pro-easing candidate becoming the next Prime Minister [2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Tamura asserts that Japan's neutral interest rate is at least around 1% and emphasizes the need for careful assessment during the gradual rate hike process [2] - He indicates that a single rate increase would be insufficient, as the current policy rate remains significantly below the neutral rate [2]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding the extent of further interest rate cuts, leading to a strengthening of the dollar [1] - While most policymakers believe that rate cuts are appropriate for the remainder of the year, a minority felt that last month's cut was unnecessary [1] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank noted a cautious attitude reflected in the minutes, as participants believe that the near-term indicators do not show a sharp deterioration in the labor market [1] - Regarding inflation, most members emphasized upward risks [1]

Economic Data and Market Trends - The upcoming release of key economic data includes the US GDP for Q2, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders [1][5] - The dollar index (DXY) has maintained its near two-week high at 97.80, indicating a strong dollar ahead of the US economic data release [4] - Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 231,000 to 235,000, following a significant increase to 264,000, the highest in four years [4] - Durable goods orders are projected to decline by 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% decrease in July [4] UK Economic Outlook - The Bank of England (BoE) is under scrutiny regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with recent comments suggesting a cautious approach [6] - BoE's Megan Greene indicated that inflation risks have shifted upwards, and the central bank expects economic growth to rebound without significant labor market risks [6] - The BoE maintained interest rates at 4% after a 25 basis point cut in August, reflecting a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy [6] Currency Performance - The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading cautiously around 1.3450, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of US economic data [3][9] - The recent trend for GBP/USD remains bearish, with the 20-day EMA acting as a key resistance level at 1.3514 [9] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3800 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the central bank's target, and future rate decisions will depend on data from upcoming meetings [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that overall inflation in the Eurozone is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation projected at 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, suggesting medium-term inflation stability around 2% [2] Group 2 - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a policy observation phase, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year, and rates likely to remain stable into next year [3] - External risks persist, including potential impacts from the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts and the U.S. government's new tariff policies, which could increase uncertainty in the European economy [3] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence, while growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively [4]