格隆汇10月9日｜最新发布的美联储会议纪要显示，官员们对于应在多大程度上进一步降低利率存在分歧，在此背景下，美元走强。纪要表明，尽管大多数 政策制定者认为在今年剩余时间里降息是合适的，但也有少数人认为上个月的会议上降息并非必要。德意志分析师在一份报告中指出，纪要中"明显体现出 一种谨慎的态度"，因为与会者认为近标并未显示劳动力市场状况急剧恶化。此外，关于通胀，多数成员强调了上行风险。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明 示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Economic Data and Market Trends - The upcoming release of key economic data includes the US GDP for Q2, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders [1][5] - The dollar index (DXY) has maintained its near two-week high at 97.80, indicating a strong dollar ahead of the US economic data release [4] - Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 231,000 to 235,000, following a significant increase to 264,000, the highest in four years [4] - Durable goods orders are projected to decline by 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% decrease in July [4] UK Economic Outlook - The Bank of England (BoE) is under scrutiny regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with recent comments suggesting a cautious approach [6] - BoE's Megan Greene indicated that inflation risks have shifted upwards, and the central bank expects economic growth to rebound without significant labor market risks [6] - The BoE maintained interest rates at 4% after a 25 basis point cut in August, reflecting a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy [6] Currency Performance - The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading cautiously around 1.3450, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of US economic data [3][9] - The recent trend for GBP/USD remains bearish, with the 20-day EMA acting as a key resistance level at 1.3514 [9] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3800 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the central bank's target, and future rate decisions will depend on data from upcoming meetings [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that overall inflation in the Eurozone is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation projected at 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, suggesting medium-term inflation stability around 2% [2] Group 2 - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a policy observation phase, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year, and rates likely to remain stable into next year [3] - External risks persist, including potential impacts from the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts and the U.S. government's new tariff policies, which could increase uncertainty in the European economy [3] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence, while growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively [4]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a fluctuation with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones, indicating a potential risk of continued decline in interest rate bonds in the short term [14][18] - The A-share market is seeing a downward trend, with the ChiNext index dropping over 4%, and over 2900 stocks declining, suggesting a market adjustment phase [2][18] - The commodity market is showing signs of a potential upward trend, particularly in crude oil and precious metals, with the Wenhua Commodity Index nearing a critical support level [5][36] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests avoiding high volatility stocks and focusing on low-position large-cap stocks for better value [2][19] - The report indicates a bullish outlook on commodities, particularly precious metals and crude oil, as they are expected to resonate upward with the stock market's style shift [5][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dollar index for potential upward movement, suggesting that shorting the dollar may not be cost-effective [32][33] Group 3: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies are increasingly focusing on supporting key enterprises in the supply chain, indicating a shift towards enhancing domestic consumption and economic recovery [39][42] - Internationally, India is reducing consumption taxes to stimulate domestic demand amid rising economic risks, reflecting a proactive approach to economic management [42][45] - The report highlights the optimistic tone from the July Politburo meeting regarding overseas risks, suggesting a favorable outlook for US-China trade negotiations [2][18]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Macro Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to generate scores for various asset classes, reflecting their relative attractiveness under current macroeconomic conditions [16][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates global macroeconomic factors such as global monetary conditions, global inflation, and global economic sentiment. - Each factor is scored based on its current trend (e.g., uptrend or downtrend) and its historical relationship with asset performance. - The scores are aggregated to produce a final macro score for each asset class, including equities, commodities, and bonds [16][18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying asset classes with higher expected returns under specific macroeconomic conditions. For example, it currently favors commodities like copper and gold over equities due to the upward trend in global inflation and monetary easing [16][18]. 2. Model Name: US Equity Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses the timing for US equity investments based on macroeconomic and market-specific indicators [19]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses three sub-indicators: economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress. - Each sub-indicator is scored, and the aggregated score determines the model's outlook (e.g., bullish, neutral, or bearish) for US equities [19]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shifted its outlook to "bullish" due to improving economic sentiment and capital flows, suggesting a favorable environment for US equities [19]. 3. Model Name: Gold Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the timing for gold investments based on fiscal and inflationary conditions [21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates indicators such as fiscal deficit expansion, inflation trends, and central bank policies. - The latest reading of the timing indicator is -0.53, reflecting a cautious signal. However, the model acknowledges potential distortions due to lagging data on fiscal expansion [21]. - **Model Evaluation**: Despite the cautious signal, the model suggests that gold remains a strong investment under the anticipated fiscal deficit expansion and rising inflation [21]. 4. Model Name: Crude Oil Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts crude oil price trends based on macroeconomic and market-specific factors [26]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a "Crude Oil Sentiment Index," which aggregates factors such as demand, inventory levels, the US dollar index, investor expectations, and macroeconomic risks. - The latest index reading is 0.56, indicating a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model maintains a bullish view on crude oil, supported by improving demand and reduced macroeconomic risks [26][27]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Macro Scoring Model - **Copper**: When the macro score for copper reaches 4, the next month's annualized return for LME copper is 29% [12][16]. - **Gold**: The model indicates a positive outlook for gold under current macroeconomic conditions, though specific return metrics are not provided [16][18]. 2. US Equity Timing Model - **Outlook**: The model has upgraded its view on US equities to "bullish," supported by improving economic sentiment and capital flows [19]. 3. Gold Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The latest timing indicator value is -0.53, signaling caution, though the model suggests potential upside due to fiscal and inflationary trends [21]. 4. Crude Oil Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The Crude Oil Sentiment Index is at 0.56, reflecting a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Global Monetary Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks global monetary policy trends to assess their impact on asset prices [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from central bank policy rates, liquidity measures, and monetary easing/tightening cycles. - It is used as an input in the macro scoring model to evaluate the attractiveness of risk assets [16]. 2. Factor Name: Global Inflation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures global inflationary pressures and their implications for asset performance [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor aggregates inflation data from major economies and evaluates its trend (e.g., accelerating or decelerating). - It is used to assess the relative attractiveness of inflation-sensitive assets like commodities [16]. 3. Factor Name: Economic Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the overall economic sentiment to predict asset class performance [19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is based on leading indicators such as PMI data, new orders, and consumer confidence indices. - It is a key input in the US equity timing model [19]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Global Monetary Factor - **Impact**: The upward trend in this factor supports a positive outlook for risk assets, particularly commodities [16]. 2. Global Inflation Factor - **Impact**: The rising trend in this factor favors inflation-sensitive assets like copper and gold [16]. 3. Economic Sentiment Factor - **Impact**: The improvement in this factor supports a bullish outlook for US equities [19].

Group 1 - The announcement of the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the future independence of the Federal Reserve among investors [1][5] - Following the announcement, there was a mixed reaction in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising while short-term yields mostly fell [1][3] - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond decreased by 3.2 basis points to 3.698%, while the 10-year yield increased by 0.4 basis points to 4.279% [1] Group 2 - Economists warn that further political interference in the Federal Reserve could pose significant risks [7] - Elizabeth Warren, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, criticized the dismissal as an illegal attempt by the president to find a scapegoat for rising costs, calling it a violation of the Federal Reserve Act [6] - The potential for further dismissals of Federal Reserve officials could increase inflation risks, leading investors to speculate that the Fed may become less focused on inflation [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In July, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, citing a "tight balance" in the labor market and potential inflation risks from high tariffs[3][6] - The Fed's assessment of economic uncertainty focuses on rising inflation impacting real GDP growth rather than nominal output or employment issues[3][6] - The threshold for rate cuts remains high, with no clear indication of a September rate cut despite market speculation[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation risks are primarily driven by tariffs, which are seen as a short-term shock, but the long-term impact on the economy requires further evaluation[3][9] - The Fed acknowledges that the current inflationary pressures may just be the beginning of the effects from tariffs on goods inflation[3][9] - The labor market remains solid, with no signs of weakness, but there are downside risks to economic growth[3][11] Group 3: Market Implications - Improved risk appetite and economic outlook may continue to support U.S. equities and long-term Treasury yields, with the dollar index potentially returning to the 100 mark[3][12] - Emerging market assets, excluding China, may face valuation risks due to high tariffs and external demand pressures, despite some trade agreements[3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to remain vigilant regarding the risks of rising inflation, particularly due to increasing food prices which could lead to a loss of control over inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - Nakaso warns that rising food prices may trigger inflation expectations to spiral out of control [1]