Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Last Friday, Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, leading to an epic plunge in the global precious metals market. COMEX silver futures price dropped by over 35% and fell below the $75/ounce mark, COMEX gold futures price dropped by nearly 13% and fell below the $4,700/ounce mark, and NYMEX platinum and palladium futures prices also dropped by over 20% during the session. Although the precious metals futures prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Although Wash's nomination requires Senate approval, it is basically certain that he will replace Powell whose term ends in May. Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. According to Deutsche Bank analysis, his policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction" [3][7]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1,161.42 | 45.78 | 4.10 | 187,299 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1,163.99 | 53.64 | 4.83 | 163,308 | 265,356 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | - 75.60 | - 1.52 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 27,941 | 4,810 | 20.79 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 27,530 | 2,542 | 10.17 | 531,280 | 3,240,738 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | - 18.01 | - 17.44 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 630.55 | - 55.35 | - 8.07 | 40,153 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 638.39 | - 43.11 | - 6.33 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2,178.20 | - 43.11 | - 21.46 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.05 | - 43.11 | - 6.81 | 19,151 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1,701.00 | - 43.11 | - 16.90 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, causing a sharp decline in the precious metals market. Although prices rebounded slightly at the end, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. His policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". However, some senators oppose his nomination [3][7]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% at the end - of - January meeting, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "appointed" director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain [8]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. 3. Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, higher than the estimated 205,000 and the previous value of 200,000 (revised from 200,000 to 210,000). The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending January 17 was 1.827 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million. The four - week moving average of initial jobless claims as of January 24 was 206,250, and the previous value was revised from 201,500 to 204,000 [11]. - The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill passed by the House of Representatives in a procedural vote, and the US federal government is facing another partial "shutdown" crisis. The operating funds of several federal departments will be exhausted on January 30 [11]. - The initial GDP of the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate for the whole year but higher than the market expectation of 1.2%. Spain's GDP growth led with 2.6%, Germany's growth exceeded expectations at 0.6%, and France's growth of 1.1% was lower than expected [11]. - The year - on - year growth rate of Tokyo's core CPI in January slowed from 2.3% to 2%, lower than the expected 2.2%, and it was the second consecutive month of slowdown, weakening the expectation of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [11]. - The World Gold Council shows that in 2025, the gold - buying speed of central banks around the world slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, but it was still at a high level by historical standards. It is expected that the gold - buying volume in 2026 will further decline slightly to 850 tons. Meanwhile, retail and institutional investors have become the dominant force in gold buying, with investment demand surging by 84% to a record 2,175 tons, and the gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, ending four consecutive years of outflows [12]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver, the price differences between Shanghai futures gold and Shanghai gold T + D, Shanghai futures silver and Shanghai silver T + D, the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio, the US inflation expectation, the relationship between gold price and various factors (such as US dollar, copper price, VIX index, crude oil price, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US real interest rate), the Fed's balance - sheet size, the US government debt size, the copper - to - gold ratio, the US dollar index and the euro - to - US dollar exchange rate, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventory, the NYMEX platinum - to - palladium ratio, and the non - commercial net positions of platinum and palladium futures and options [13][23][33][42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Lambardelli, expressed concerns about the upward risks to inflation in the UK and suggested a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts as the central bank nears the end of its current easing cycle [1] Group 1 - There are increasing resource pressures in the economy that are likely to drive up prices, as evidenced by signs in the labor market [1] - The Deputy Governor is less certain about the current limits of monetary policy compared to other members of the Monetary Policy Committee [1] - A recommendation was made to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts to better assess and navigate the situation as the end of the easing cycle approaches [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in October, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed shifted its focus from employment market slowdown risks to inflationary pressures in its economic outlook[2] - Future rate cut prospects remain highly uncertain, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion"[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing but remaining low[4] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is considered somewhat elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary concerns[5] - The Fed plans to halt the reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, which may signal a shift in monetary policy approach[5] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Sensitivity - The Fed's risk management approach now prioritizes inflation risks over employment market risks, reflecting a dynamic assessment of economic conditions[6] - AI-related capital expenditures are noted to be less sensitive to interest rates, potentially mitigating the impact of rising rates on the economy[9] - The cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points, combined with the cessation of balance sheet reduction, may lead to a perception that price tools are sufficiently accommodative for current economic risks[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is considering tightening monetary policy if the certainty of the expected economic outlook increases [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that inflation risks are rising, and the inflation rate may reach targets earlier than anticipated [1] - BOJ board member Tamura Naoki stated that the current policy interest rate is still far from neutral levels, suggesting a need to approach neutral rates to avoid future aggressive rate hikes [1] Group 2 - Tamura Naoki mentioned that the situation has entered a phase of assessing whether to raise interest rates due to increasing risks of price hikes [3] - He also pointed out that despite temporary increases in food prices, there is a possibility of a broader and sustained rise in prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's most hawkish policy committee member, Naoki Tamura, advocates for an interest rate hike due to increasing inflation risks, maintaining his stance from the previous month's policy meeting [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Naoki Tamura believes the Bank of Japan is at a stage where it should consider raising policy rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing and bring rates closer to neutral levels [1] - The probability of a rate hike during the upcoming meeting has dropped significantly from approximately 70% to around 15% since the end of September [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Tamura suggests that the Bank of Japan may achieve its stable 2% inflation target sooner than the official forecast of the second half of the prediction period ending March 2028 [2] - He warns that if the central bank falls behind in addressing inflation, it may have to raise rates rapidly to stabilize prices, potentially causing severe damage to the Japanese economy [2] Group 3: Political Context - Recent political developments in Japan have led to market volatility, particularly following the unexpected victory of a pro-monetary easing candidate in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election [2] - The dissolution of the ruling coalition has cast doubt on the prospects of the pro-easing candidate becoming the next Prime Minister [2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Tamura asserts that Japan's neutral interest rate is at least around 1% and emphasizes the need for careful assessment during the gradual rate hike process [2] - He indicates that a single rate increase would be insufficient, as the current policy rate remains significantly below the neutral rate [2]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding the extent of further interest rate cuts, leading to a strengthening of the dollar [1] - While most policymakers believe that rate cuts are appropriate for the remainder of the year, a minority felt that last month's cut was unnecessary [1] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank noted a cautious attitude reflected in the minutes, as participants believe that the near-term indicators do not show a sharp deterioration in the labor market [1] - Regarding inflation, most members emphasized upward risks [1]

Economic Data and Market Trends - The upcoming release of key economic data includes the US GDP for Q2, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders [1][5] - The dollar index (DXY) has maintained its near two-week high at 97.80, indicating a strong dollar ahead of the US economic data release [4] - Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 231,000 to 235,000, following a significant increase to 264,000, the highest in four years [4] - Durable goods orders are projected to decline by 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% decrease in July [4] UK Economic Outlook - The Bank of England (BoE) is under scrutiny regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with recent comments suggesting a cautious approach [6] - BoE's Megan Greene indicated that inflation risks have shifted upwards, and the central bank expects economic growth to rebound without significant labor market risks [6] - The BoE maintained interest rates at 4% after a 25 basis point cut in August, reflecting a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy [6] Currency Performance - The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading cautiously around 1.3450, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of US economic data [3][9] - The recent trend for GBP/USD remains bearish, with the 20-day EMA acting as a key resistance level at 1.3514 [9] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3800 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the central bank's target, and future rate decisions will depend on data from upcoming meetings [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that overall inflation in the Eurozone is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation projected at 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, suggesting medium-term inflation stability around 2% [2] Group 2 - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a policy observation phase, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year, and rates likely to remain stable into next year [3] - External risks persist, including potential impacts from the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts and the U.S. government's new tariff policies, which could increase uncertainty in the European economy [3] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence, while growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively [4]