Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In July, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, citing a "tight balance" in the labor market and potential inflation risks from high tariffs[3][6] - The Fed's assessment of economic uncertainty focuses on rising inflation impacting real GDP growth rather than nominal output or employment issues[3][6] - The threshold for rate cuts remains high, with no clear indication of a September rate cut despite market speculation[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation risks are primarily driven by tariffs, which are seen as a short-term shock, but the long-term impact on the economy requires further evaluation[3][9] - The Fed acknowledges that the current inflationary pressures may just be the beginning of the effects from tariffs on goods inflation[3][9] - The labor market remains solid, with no signs of weakness, but there are downside risks to economic growth[3][11] Group 3: Market Implications - Improved risk appetite and economic outlook may continue to support U.S. equities and long-term Treasury yields, with the dollar index potentially returning to the 100 mark[3][12] - Emerging market assets, excluding China, may face valuation risks due to high tariffs and external demand pressures, despite some trade agreements[3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to remain vigilant regarding the risks of rising inflation, particularly due to increasing food prices which could lead to a loss of control over inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - Nakaso warns that rising food prices may trigger inflation expectations to spiral out of control [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's chief European economist Mark Wall indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) has paused its easing cycle in July, raising questions about whether this is a temporary halt or a long-term observation, with significant uncertainty remaining [1] Group 1: ECB Policy and Economic Outlook - The ECB's decision to pause is seen as a reasonable approach to maintain policy flexibility amid high uncertainty [1] - There is a potential risk of rising inflation due to strong economic resilience combined with large-scale fiscal stimulus if trade uncertainties diminish [1] - The market may soon shift its focus from the "last rate cut" to the timing of the "first rate hike" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a reduction in investor concerns regarding the risks of economic growth downturn and inflation increase [1] Economic Indicators - During the two meetings, policy expectations and U.S. Treasury yields have risen moderately, while credit spreads have narrowed and stock prices have increased [1] - Economic data has generally fallen short of expectations, with the May employment report being a notable exception [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are focusing on the easing of trade tensions and the prospects of fiscal expansion, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [1]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing a slight decline of 0.02% as of the report [3] - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.29%, reaching 3124.07 points [9] Individual Stock Performance - Sumitomo Pharma saw a significant increase of over 8%, while Omron, Seiko, and Casio rose by more than 5% [5] - Notable declines were observed in companies such as Fujitsu, Nintendo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [5] - Specific stock performance data includes: - Sumitomo Pharma: 987.0 JPY, up 8.82%, market cap 392.7 billion JPY [6] - Omron: 4048.0 JPY, up 6.86%, market cap 834.9 billion JPY [6] - Seiko: 1180.5 JPY, up 5.54%, market cap 413.4 billion JPY [6] - Casio: 1161.5 JPY, up 5.50%, market cap 276.1 billion JPY [6] - Nissan Motor experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 3% [5] Economic Insights - Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks, suggesting that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [7] - New Bank of Japan committee member, Junko Koizumi, hinted at a possible upward adjustment of inflation expectations this month, which could pave the way for another interest rate increase this year [8] Trade and Export Concerns in South Korea - A trade expert in South Korea predicted a significant reduction in exports of major products if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented as planned [9] - Forecasts indicate that exports in the automotive and steel sectors may decline by 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively, from July to December [10] - The expert urged South Korean companies to consider relocating production bases overseas or adjusting export prices to mitigate the impact of high tariffs [10] - There is a call for the South Korean government and industries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and expand exports to regions such as the EU, ASEAN, and India, while accelerating the transition to high-tech industries [10]

Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act," which is expected to be signed by President Trump before Independence Day, aiming to extend non-permanent tax cuts from his first term [1] - The act is projected to increase the deficit by over $2 trillion over the next decade, with the 2024 deficit expected to reach 6.4% of GDP, the highest level during peacetime and non-recession periods [1] - Concerns about the lack of a plan to address the deficit may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve [1] Group 2 - The new fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide timely support to the slowing U.S. economy, boosting consumer spending and business confidence [2] - Despite the support from the act, economic growth is still anticipated to remain below trend due to the impact of tariffs [2] - Inflation risks are skewed to the upside due to factors such as a weaker dollar, increased actual tariff rates, and potential energy price hikes from geopolitical conflicts [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that fluctuations in global commodity prices may pose an upward risk to inflation in the Indian economy [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that rising commodity prices could lead to increased costs for consumers, potentially affecting overall economic growth [1] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring global market trends to assess their impact on domestic inflation rates [1] - The analysis suggests that policymakers need to be vigilant in addressing these inflationary pressures to maintain economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of inflation in Japan is increasing, which may prompt decisive action from the Bank of Japan sooner than expected [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - The Bank of Japan's inflation target may be achieved earlier than anticipated due to rising inflation risks [1] - Companies are not overly pessimistic despite the inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates during ongoing trade negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England member Greene indicates that the UK faces risks of economic growth downturn while inflation presents upward risks [1] - UK inflation appears to be in a "plateau" phase rather than a "hump" phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, believes that risks are still two-sided, but they lean towards downside risks for economic growth, while there are also upside risks for inflation [1] Economic Growth Risks - Green emphasizes that the risks to economic growth are skewed downwards, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] Inflation Risks - There are concerns regarding upward risks to inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist or increase [1]