瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 玉米类市场周报 玉米现货涨势收窄 盘面维持高位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2409元/吨，较前一周+5元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年6月15日当周，美国玉 米优良率为72%，高于市场预期的71%，前一周为71%,上年同期为72%。美玉米优良率向好，且 中美原则上达成框架协议，贸易关系有所缓和，市场忧虑远期进口压力。国内方面，国内主产区 存粮不断减少支撑贸易商挺价惜售情绪强，加之托市收购稳价新麦购销升温，基层玉米上量持续 降低，企业库存不断消耗，收购价格继续偏强，但小麦替代效应以及进口玉米投放预期冲击，玉 米价格上涨势头有所放缓。 ...

近期涨势有所放缓，近日高位略有回落，短线参与为主。 玉米系产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | | | | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -81840 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2364 113 555574 | 5 吨) | 2685 -93 143239 | -4 -1 -11902 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 9216 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -96759 | | 1171 | 5131 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 0 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 215285 | 手) | 24236 | 0 | | | 主力合约C ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn planting progress has accelerated, and U.S. corn prices are in a bottom - oscillating state. Chinese corn prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to reduced supply and potential downstream replenishment demand in June. The 07 corn contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short - term, and the price will be affected by policies in the long - term. - Corn starch prices are mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a loss state, but the profit will be repaired as many enterprises shut down. The 07 starch contract is also expected to oscillate narrowly in the short - term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2266, down 3 (-0.13%); C2505 closed at 2299, up 1 (0.04%); C2509 closed at 2396, unchanged (0.00%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2673, unchanged (0.00%); CS2505 closed at 2685, up 8 (0.30%); CS2509 closed at 2776, up 1 (0.04%) [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas remaining stable and in others rising. The basis also varied. Starch spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The basis for starch was positive in all regions [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads and starch inter - delivery spreads, as well as cross - variety spreads, showed different changes [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn is in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn is acceptable. The spot price of corn in the north is stable, while in the northeast it is strong, and in the north - central region, it has increased significantly. The supply is low, and the downstream demand is still weak, but it is expected that the corn price will rise in the short - term. In the medium - and long - term, policy - related grains may be auctioned after June [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and corn prices in Shandong have continued to rise. The starch inventory has decreased this week. In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a loss state, but the profit will be repaired as many enterprises shut down. The 07 starch contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The domestic 07 corn contract will oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Hold the position of buying spot and short - selling 07 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when the spread is low, and conduct oscillating operations [13]. 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options and hold them [14]. - **Option Data**: Information on option contracts such as C2509 - P - 2380.DCE and C2507 - P - 2360.DCE, including the underlying asset price, closing price, and implied volatility, is provided [14]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch 09 contract spread [16][19][20].

宏源期货有限公司 玉米：震荡运行，等待驱动 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 1 第一部分：行情回顾 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价（美分/蒲式耳） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 CBOT玉米期货和期权:管理基金净多持仓（手） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 大连玉米期货合约持仓量（万手） 3 • 近期国内玉米期价震荡运行，持仓量持稳。截至5月27日，大商所玉米期货主力合约收盘价2324元/吨， 周环比上涨0.52%；玉米期货合约持仓量20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is close to the bottom, and long positions can be opportunistically entered. The C2507 contract has a support level of 2270 and a resistance level of 2400 [81]. - For corn starch, the fundamentals are weak. The futures price is still dominated by cost - based pricing and generally follows the trend of corn. The 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800, and the spread between the 7 - 9 contracts is expected to strengthen [130]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Review CBOT Corn - As of May 20, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 454.5 cents per bushel, up 2.71% week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds turned negative, with a net long position of - 84,976 contracts as of May 13, down 98,869 contracts week - on - week [8]. - Due to a larger - than - expected increase in the new - season sown area and expected output (5.42% and 6.41% respectively) and good sowing conditions, the CBOT corn price declined weakly in the past month. The USDA May supply - demand report was neutral - to - bullish overall, and recent weather speculation halted the decline [8]. Domestic Corn Futures - As of May 20, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2312 yuan per ton, down 1.37% week - on - week. The open interest of corn futures contracts was 2,057,122 contracts, down 2.98% week - on - week [11]. - The number of registered corn warehouse receipts continued to climb, reaching 212,135 contracts as of May 20, significantly higher than in previous years, which pressured the futures price. The previous high of 2380 was the resistance level. After the May Day holiday, the trading volume of corn futures contracts rebounded, with a trading volume of 3,807,079 contracts last week [12]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. Compared with last week, contracts of different maturities all declined, with the near - month contracts having a relatively larger decline. The C07 - C09 spread oscillated weakly and showed a regression [16]. Corn Spot - As of May 20, the national average spot price of corn was 2375.2 yuan per ton, up 0.06% week - on - week. Due to the weakening of the futures price and the stability of the spot price, the basis of the corn main contract strengthened, reaching 63.2 yuan per ton as of May 20, up 33.47 yuan per ton week - on - week [21]. Corn Starch - As of May 20, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2656 yuan per ton, down 1.78% week - on - week. The open interest was 305,333 contracts, down 7.98% week - on - week [87]. - The number of registered corn starch warehouse receipts reached a record high of 26,620 contracts. The weekly trading volume of corn starch futures increased significantly, with a trading volume of 784,400 contracts last week, up 35.32% week - on - week [90]. - As of May 20, the national average price of Grade - 1 standard corn starch was 2847 yuan per ton, up 0.32% week - on - week. The basis of corn starch was 191 yuan per ton, up 57 yuan per ton week - on - week [93]. - From the term structure, the decline of the forward corn starch contracts was smaller last week, showing a pattern of near - weak, medium - strong, and far - weak. The spread between the corn starch and corn futures contracts oscillated weakly, with the spread of the 07 contract at 344 yuan per ton as of May 20, down 4.44% week - on - week [99]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - USDA's May 2025/26 balance sheet predicted that the new - season output would be flat compared to last year, with an increase in feed consumption of 5 million tons, and the ending inventory would drop to a multi - year low [28]. - Huiyiwang's May balance sheet increased the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, and the ending inventory continued to grow [28]. Import Situation - Although the negotiation on Sino - US tariffs made positive progress, the actual import of US corn was still in a loss. The import of US corn was difficult to resume in the short term, and further negotiation results were awaited [29]. - Since the second half of last year, China's corn import volume has decreased significantly compared to previous years. In April this year, the corn import volume was 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.7%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95.2%. USDA's prediction of China's corn import volume in 2025/26 was 10 million tons, which seemed high based on the current situation [37]. Domestic Market Conditions - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning was at a high level, and the sale of farmers' remaining grain was basically completed. The two - way trading activity decreased, procurement basically stagnated, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state [38][41]. - Port inventories decreased. The inventory of the four northern ports decreased by 1.01% week - on - week, and the inventory of Guangdong ports decreased in various categories [43]. - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises remained stable. The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline [48][52]. Feed Industry - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The output of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed increased by 9.1%, 6.5%, and 9.7% year - on - year respectively [58]. - The ex - factory prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The ex - factory prices of compound feed and concentrated feed increased slightly month - on - month, while the ex - factory prices of additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month [58]. - The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2 percentage points; the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 percentage points [58]. Pig Industry - In April, the sales volume of pig feed increased both year - on - year and month - on - month with a large increase. The pig price slightly declined, and the pig - raising profit rebounded from a low level. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline [59][61][65]. Wheat Market - The wheat price remained stable, the wheat - corn price spread narrowed, and the feeding cost - effectiveness of wheat became prominent [68]. Corn Starch - The regional spread between the corn starch and corn spot prices showed a divergent trend. The operating rate and output of corn starch enterprises decreased, and the enterprises suffered serious losses [104][107][110]. - The inventory of corn starch oscillated at a high level, and the demand for corn starch declined and then rebounded [115][120]. Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - The basis is at a relatively high level, and long positions in corn can be opportunistically entered. The current situation has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Overall, the corn futures price is close to the bottom, and long positions can be entered on dips [81]. - It is expected that the weather conditions during the summer harvest and sowing this year will be generally good, but attention should be paid to avoiding rain and rushing to harvest in the Jianghuai and Jianghan summer harvest areas from May 21 - 23 [80]. Corn Starch - The fundamentals of corn starch are weak. The spot price is stable, but enterprises are still in serious losses, with low operating willingness and decreased output. The downstream demand for corn starch has rebounded, and the enterprise inventory oscillates at a high level. The futures price is still dominated by cost - based pricing and generally follows the trend of corn [130].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2342 | -14 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 2689 | -13 | | | 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 118 | 吨) 6 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | -72 | -1 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 1370954 | -24572 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 21444 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2273 | -9 | -0.40% | 18,777 | 36.27% | 61,554 | -4.82% | | C2505 | | 2325 | -12 | -0.52% | 4,561 | 513.04% | 9,160 | 0.22% | | C2509 | | 2375 | -10 | -0.42% | 150,772 | 54.48% | 422,170 | 3.02% | | CS2601 | | 2710 | -6 | -0.22% | 836 | 9.42% | 4,4 ...