Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) achieved record free cash flow of $1.6 billion in Q3 2025, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by lower capital expenditures and increased net cash from operating activities [2][8] - The company reduced its total capital expenditures by approximately 17% year-over-year to $727 million, and lowered its capital guidance for 2025 by $200 million [1][3] Financial Performance - NEM's free cash flow exceeded $1 billion for the fourth consecutive quarter, reflecting strong operational performance [2] - The reduction in sustaining capital by $150 million to $1,725 million and development capital by $50 million to $1,280 million contributed to the overall decrease in capital spending [3] Future Outlook - Despite lower capital expenditures, NEM cautioned that free cash flow in Q4 may be impacted by increased spending on Yanacocha's water treatment construction and planned severance payments [4][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected earnings increase of 81.9% for 2025 and 15.1% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10] Industry Comparison - In contrast, Barrick Mining Corporation's capital expenditures increased by 30% year-over-year in Q3, with expectations for further increases in 2025 [5] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited also anticipates high capital spending levels in 2025, with expenditures projected between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion [6] Stock Performance - NEM shares have risen 88.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which increased by 79.6% [7]

Core Insights - Big tech companies are projected to invest over $500 billion in infrastructure, primarily related to artificial intelligence, in 2026, which could lead to a significant increase in tech capital expenditures as a percentage of GDP, reaching levels seen during previous tech investment cycles [2][3] - The current investment cycle in AI may resemble the Zoom boom rather than the Dotcom Bubble, as the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy could sustain stock market growth even if AI capital expenditures decline [3][6][10] - Concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market rally have emerged, particularly as tech stocks experienced volatility in late 2025, raising questions about their future performance [4][8] Investment Trends - Historical patterns indicate that tech stocks typically lag the market about a year before the peak of capital expenditure cycles, suggesting potential risks for AI-related stocks [3] - The Federal Reserve's current stance indicates a likelihood of rate cuts, which could support stock valuations by lowering real yields, thereby benefiting tech stocks [6][10] - The tech sector's performance in 2021 was influenced by declining real bond yields, which are crucial for stock valuations, and the sector did not experience a downturn until the Fed's rate hikes began in 2022 [5] Market Dynamics - The tech sector's significant share of the S&P 500 makes the index more susceptible to declines in tech stocks, raising concerns among Wall Street analysts about the sustainability of the AI rally [8] - Lower interest rates and tax cuts from recent legislation could enhance stock market liquidity and economic growth, potentially mitigating the impact of sluggish tech stock performance [9]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 reached a new record high of 6,944.82, up 0.62%, while the STOXX Europe 600 also hit a new high [1] - Futures are slightly down in early trading as traders look to lock in gains [1] Capital Expenditure and Forecasts - Analysts expect another year of solid gains for U.S. equities in 2026, forecasting a total return of 12% for the S&P 500, reaching a year-end level of 7,600 [2] - AI capital expenditure (capex) growth is anticipated to slow down in 2026, impacting profit justification for the significant capex [3] Market Dynamics and Risks - The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 represent 41% of market cap and contributed 53% to the 2025 return, with expectations of AI spending exceeding consensus estimates but decelerating in growth [4] - Capex spending by major tech firms, referred to as "hyperscalers," was approximately $400 billion in 2025, reflecting a 70% annual increase [5] Profitability Concerns - Tech companies have historically generated profits two to three times their investments, but this may not be sustainable [6] - To maintain expected returns on capital, these companies would need to achieve an annual profit run-rate exceeding $1 trillion, significantly higher than the 2026 consensus estimate of $450 billion [6] - The current spending levels and market caps, along with increasing competition, suggest a lower probability that all market leaders will generate sufficient long-term profits [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Semiconductor Equipment** industry, specifically the capital expenditure (capex) updates of the **Big Three**: **TSMC**, **Samsung**, and **Intel**. [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The **Big Three** account for approximately **59%** of the projected **$115 billion** global **2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** spending, which is expected to grow by **10% year-over-year**. The breakdown includes **30%** growth in **NAND**, **12%** in **DRAM**, and **6%** in **Foundry/Logic (F/L)**. [1] - The equipment sector is believed to be in **Phase 2 of an upcycle**, with expectations that **2026 WFE** spending could reach **$126 billion** under a bullish scenario. [1] - **TSMC** is anticipated to guide its **2026 capex** between **$46 billion** and **$48 billion**, with potential increases throughout the year, based on investor discussions suggesting a target of **$50 billion**. [1][2] - **Intel** is projected to maintain a **2025 gross capex** of **$18 billion**, with expectations for **2026** to be around **$16 billion**. Intel's capex is expected to stabilize as foundry operations improve, particularly for back-end customers. [1][3] - **Samsung** has indicated flexibility in its **2026 capex**, planning to increase investments in response to growing **AI** demand. In a related note, **Micron** has raised its **FY2026** net capex to **$20 billion**, reflecting a **45% year-over-year** growth. [1][4] Additional Important Information - The top-rated equipment picks for investment are **Lam Research Corp (LRCX)** and **Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)**. [1] - The earnings reports for the companies are scheduled as follows: **TSMC** on **January 15**, **Intel** on **January 22**, and **Samsung** on **January 29**. [2][3][4] - The report includes a disclaimer regarding potential conflicts of interest due to Citigroup's involvement with the companies mentioned, emphasizing that investors should consider this report as one of many factors in their investment decisions. [5][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Antique projects CY26 as a potential turning point for Indian equities, anticipating a recovery in corporate profits and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows, with a target of 29,500 for the Nifty index, implying a 13% upside from current levels [1][13] Earnings Outlook - Nifty earnings are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 16% over FY26–28, significantly higher than the 7% CAGR recorded over FY24–26 [1][13] - The brokerage emphasizes an earnings-led market recovery rather than relying on multiple expansions, with corporate earnings positively correlated with wholesale price inflation and nominal GDP growth, both expected to normalize in FY27 [3][13] - A broad-based recovery in profits is anticipated, particularly in sectors such as electronics manufacturing services, telecom, industrials, and retail, while oil and gas, IT services, power utilities, FMCG, and automobiles are expected to lag [3][13] Capital Expenditure and Financials - The capital expenditure theme is expected to rebound after two years of slowdown, with favorable conditions across global monetary policies and domestic support [7][13] - Financials are a core focus, with expectations for banks to enter an earnings upcycle in CY26, supported by a strong domestic macro backdrop and the nearing end of the rate-cut cycle [8][13] - Public sector banks are favored due to comparable growth metrics to private lenders while trading at a 45% discount [8][13] Consumption Sector and Mid/Small-Cap Stocks - The broader consumption sector is viewed with caution due to high valuations and competitive pressures, although select discretionary segments like alcoholic beverages and hotels are seen positively [9][13] - Mid- and small-cap stocks are expected to show earnings growth that outpaces the Nifty over the next two to three years, driven by domestic cyclicals and increased capex activity [10][13] Stock Picks and Market Flows - Top large-cap stock picks include ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Hindustan Aeronautics, while mid-cap and small-cap preferences include Siemens Energy India and Chalet Hotels, respectively [11][13] - After a significant outflow of $17.5 billion from Indian equities in CY25, Antique anticipates stabilization and potential revival of FPI flows in CY26, supported by low FPI ownership and reasonable valuations [11][13] - Despite trading at a premium to historical averages, valuations are expected to be sustained due to lower bond yields and sectoral divergence, with many Nifty 500 stocks having corrected over 20% from their highs [12][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses macroeconomic trends and forecasts for various regions, including the US, Europe, UK, Japan, and China, with a focus on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth projections. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capex Surge in 2025**: There is an expectation that the surge in capital expenditures (capex) in 2025 will lead to growth in 2026, particularly driven by advancements in AI technology [1] - **AI's Economic Impact**: AI is reshaping the global economy, driving trillions in investment and transforming industries, with stocks poised to benefit from increased AI spending and easing financial conditions [3] - **US Retail Sales**: October retail sales in the US showed positive signs, indicating solid consumer spending in Q4, which supports the view of two 25 basis point cuts by the FOMC in 2026 [4] - **European Investment Needs**: Europe is expected to invest to accelerate AI adoption and improve governance, but growth may still fall short, with inflation projected to remain below 2% [5] - **UK Inflation Trends**: The UK saw a slowdown in CPI inflation to 3.2% in November, leading to a revision of the inflation forecast down by 12 basis points [6] - **Japan's Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise rates to 1.25% by December 2026, with two hikes anticipated in 2026 [39] Additional Important Insights - **US Employment Trends**: Payroll employment showed fluctuations, with a decrease in October followed by an increase in November, indicating underlying strength in the private sector [15] - **China's Economic Indicators**: There has been a sharp deterioration in domestic demand indicators in China, highlighting potential economic challenges ahead [10] - **Credit Market Outlook**: The US credit market is expected to remain stable, with risk-controlled returns anticipated in 2026, while Asia credit has performed well, generating a total return of 7.96% [32] - **Inflation Forecasts**: The core CPI forecast for December 2025 has been revised down to 2.7% y/y, while the forecast for December 2026 is slightly higher at 2.9% y/y [39] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on macroeconomic trends, industry impacts, and specific forecasts for various regions.

Core Viewpoint - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. has announced its capital expenditure and turnaround outlay guidance for 2026, estimating a range of $190 million to $220 million [1]. Capital Expenditure and Turnaround Outlay Guidance - Total capital expenditure and turnaround outlay is projected to be between $190 million and $220 million [3]. - Turnarounds are estimated to cost between $50 million and $60 million [3]. - Maintenance and catalyst expenses are expected to be in the range of $105 million to $115 million [3]. - Growth investments are projected to be between $35 million and $45 million [3]. Company Overview - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and operates in the energy sector, providing both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States [4]. - The company has a combined refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day across four locations in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies [4]. - Par Pacific owns an extensive energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage and various transportation assets [4]. - The company operates the Hele retail brand in Hawaii and the "nomnom" convenience store chain in the Pacific Northwest [4]. - Par Pacific holds a 46% stake in Laramie Energy, LLC, which focuses on natural gas production in Western Colorado [4].

Capital expenditure has soared as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and, more recently, Oracle have poured money into AI data centres. Will the bet pay off? https://t.co/nqX9uB0Q9W ...

Matt, what stood out for you. Why the disappointment from Oracle. Yeah, I think there's a couple of things going on here.One is that they massively ramped their capital expenditure, its outlook for the year. So now looking for $50 billion to spend, that's 5 billion higher than the earlier estimate. So, you know, 5 billion higher than the earlier.So like kind of a more than 40% increase. And I think, you know, in a market where everybody was already kind of getting a bit concerned about how much some of thes ...

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation is projected to achieve a free cash flow expansion of approximately $12.5 billion by 2026, driven by major upstream asset ramp-ups and a streamlined organizational model [1][9] - The company anticipates significant contributions from the Tengiz Future Growth Project, Gulf of America developments, and the integration of Hess [1][9] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Chevron's strong cash flow trajectory is supported by disciplined spending, with annual capital expenditures capped at $18-21 billion through 2030, ensuring cash flow resilience even if Brent oil prices fall below $50 per barrel [4][9] - A $1 change in Brent oil price affects Chevron's after-tax earnings by approximately $550 million, indicating well-managed risk exposure [4] Group 2: Asset Management and Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a robust base of high-margin assets, with cornerstone operations like Gorgon and Wheatstone providing stable free cash flow from Australia LNG [2] - Chevron aims for structural cost reductions of $3-$4 billion by 2026, enhancing cash margins across all operations [2] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Compared to peers like ExxonMobil and BP, Chevron's mix of short-cycle shale, LNG optionality, and global deepwater leverage positions it favorably for mid-cycle resilience [3] - Chevron's integrated cost structure and capital discipline provide a competitive advantage under various price scenarios [3] Group 4: Market Performance - Chevron shares have increased by 4.6% over the past six months, lagging behind BP's 16.4% rise and ExxonMobil's 9.3% increase [7] - The stock is trading at a premium compared to the industry average in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio and is above its five-year median of 11.86 [8]