The government shutdown is adding uncertainty to an already fragile economy at the worst possible time as it weathers volatility from President Trump's tariff war and shaky job market. Another expected casualty of the shutdown, this week's jobs report, which is not expected to be released on Friday. That means business leaders will miss key data they use to make critical decisions that drive the nation's economy.And the man tapped to run the agency that releases that report won't be taking the job after Tru ...

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached a record high of $3,858.45 per troy ounce amid the U.S. government's first shutdown in nearly seven years, with futures trading close to $3,900 [1][3] - Gold and other precious metals, such as silver, have seen significant price increases due to economic uncertainty, particularly influenced by trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2][4] - Gold futures have risen over 45% since the beginning of 2025, while silver futures have increased by more than 59%, reflecting heightened investor anxiety [3] Economic Context - The economic turmoil is largely attributed to the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration, which have led to increased tariffs, higher costs for businesses and consumers, and a weakening job market [4] - The current government shutdown is expected to exacerbate economic anxieties, with a significant number of federal workers facing furloughs and potential job losses [5] - The duration of the government shutdown could significantly impact the economy, although Wall Street has remained relatively unaffected so far [6]

Listen to this ArticleMore info 0:00 / 0:00 U.S. job openings were essentially unchanged in August amid economic uncertainty arising from President Donald Trump's trade policies and an impending government shutdown. The Labor Department reported on September 30 that job openings blipped up to 7.23 million from 7.21 million in July. Economists had forecast a drop to 7.1 million. Most Innovative Companies Final Deadline: October 3 LOGIN SUBSCRIBE | FastCo Works advertisement BY Associated Press IBM Texas A& ...

Core Insights - The Mastercard Economics Institute anticipates a slower growth rate in holiday spending compared to the previous year due to labor market hiring slowdowns and tariff uncertainties [1][3] - Retail sales excluding autos are projected to grow by 3.6% year-over-year during the holiday shopping season, a decrease from the 4.1% increase recorded in 2024 [2] - E-commerce sales are expected to rise by 7.9% year-over-year, while in-store sales will increase by 2.3% year-over-year [4] Labor Market and Consumer Behavior - Consumers are expected to seek value amid economic uncertainty, influenced by labor market health and tariff-related price increases [3] - The labor market is characterized by a slowdown in hiring, but a low firing rate is helping to support consumer spending [3] - Wage growth is moderating for lower-paid workers, while high-income workers benefit from stock market gains [4] Consumer Spending Expectations - Deloitte forecasts a retail sales increase of 2.9% to 3.4% for the holiday season, down from a 4.2% increase in 2024 [5] - Bankrate's report indicates that 43% of holiday shoppers plan to spend the same as last year, 30% expect to spend less, and 27% anticipate spending more [6] - PwC's Holiday Outlook suggests a 5% decline in holiday spending, marking the first drop since 2020, with 84% of consumers planning to cut back due to rising prices and higher living costs [7]

Salary Expectations - Employers plan to increase salaries by an average of 3.4% in 2026, consistent with the increases reported in 2025 [1][5] - Payscale's survey indicates a similar average pay increase of approximately 3.5% in 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025 [5][6] Economic Constraints - 60% of companies cite economic uncertainty as a key constraint affecting salary and hiring decisions [2] - 66% of employers now prioritize economic concerns over labor competition when making compensation decisions, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous year [7] Hiring Trends - Companies are slowing down hiring and are more cautious in filling open positions, with some transitioning temporary layoffs to permanent reductions [3] - 16% of surveyed companies plan to allocate salary budgets towards skill-building initiatives for existing employees [3] Industry Variations - Pay increases vary by field, with employees in science, engineering, and government expected to see salary bumps exceeding 4% [9]

Consumers are feeling more financially anxious—and at a moment where consumer credit card debt has hit an all-time high, some young consumers are turning their back on credit cards in favor of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services like Afterpay and Klarna. Second quarter data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that Americans owe $1.21 trillion on their credit cards. The bank said credit card delinquencies have “remained elevated;” its data showed that the delinquency rate has hit 7.18 percent. M ...

Group 1 - The trend of hiring external CFOs has reversed, with internal hires rising significantly in the first half of 2025 [3][6] - Only 15.1% of CEO turnovers in the first half of the year were external hires, a decrease from 21% in 2024 and below the historical average of 22% [4] - The share of public companies appointing CFOs from within their ranks increased to nearly 71.8% in the first half of 2025, up from 52.9% last year, surpassing the historical average of 62% [6] Group 2 - Major companies like Jack in the Box, Lockheed Martin, and Automatic Data Processing have filled CFO positions with internal candidates [6] - The shift towards internal hiring may be influenced by economic uncertainty, with companies preferring candidates with institutional knowledge [6] - There is an observable trend of companies focusing on succession planning and internal talent development for both CFO and CEO roles [4][6]

Group 1 - The consumer is currently facing pressures related to inflation and the job market, which is consistent with broader market trends [1] - The company's category is unique due to the presence of private label products, which have been in long-term decline but typically see a rise during economic uncertainty [1]

National Summary - Overall economic activity remained mostly unchanged across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with four Districts reporting modest growth [12] - Consumer spending was flat to declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to promotions in retail and hospitality sectors [12] - Manufacturing firms are shifting to local supply chains and increasing automation, while data center construction is a noted strength in commercial real estate [12] Labor Markets - Eleven Districts reported little or no change in employment levels, with some firms hesitant to hire due to weaker demand [13] - Wage growth was modest across half of the Districts, while a reduction in immigrant labor availability was noted, impacting sectors like construction [13] Prices - Ten Districts reported moderate or modest price growth, with tariff-related increases being a common theme [15] - Many firms hesitated to raise prices due to customer sensitivity and competition, despite rising input costs [15] Highlights by Federal Reserve District - **Boston**: Economic activity expanded slightly, with flat consumer spending and moderate home sales [16] - **New York**: Economic activity declined slightly, with modest wage growth and strong input price increases [17] - **Philadelphia**: Business activity increased modestly, with steady employment levels and rising inflation expectations [18] - **Cleveland**: Business activity increased slightly, but demand remained flat due to uncertainty [19] - **Richmond**: Modest growth driven by consumer spending, with flat manufacturing activity [20] - **Atlanta**: Slight decline in economic activity, with moderate price increases and steady employment [21] - **Chicago**: Modest increases in consumer spending and manufacturing activity, with moderate price growth [22] - **St. Louis**: Unchanged economic activity, with concerns about immigration policies affecting labor supply [23] - **Minneapolis**: Slight contraction in economic activity, with a decline in consumer spending [24] - **Kansas City**: Generally flat economic activity, with modest wage pressures and input price growth [25] - **Dallas**: Modest rise in economic activity, with slow hiring and persistent price pressures [26] - **San Francisco**: Slight decline in economic activity, with stable lending and modest price increases [27] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston - Economic activity expanded slightly, with mixed results across sectors and modest price increases [28] - Consumer spending was flat, while manufacturing sales rose modestly, particularly in AI-related products [32] Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Economic activity continued to decline slightly, with modest wage growth and rising input prices [37] - Manufacturing activity picked up modestly, while service sector activity declined [45] Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Business activity increased modestly, with steady employment levels and moderate wage growth [53] - Firms reported concerns about rising tariffs and their impact on inflation expectations [62] Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Slight increase in overall business activity, with flat consumer spending and modest wage pressures [73] - Manufacturers reported flat demand due to trade policy uncertainty [80] Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond - Continued modest growth in the economy, with increased consumer spending and flat manufacturing activity [88] - Wage growth remained moderate, with price growth picking up in retail and wholesale services [90] Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Slight decline in economic activity, with steady employment and moderate price increases [21] - Consumer spending slowed, particularly in leisure travel [21] Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Modest increases in economic activity, with consumer spending and manufacturing activity rising [22] - Prices rose moderately, with financial conditions loosening slightly [22] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Economic activity remained unchanged, with concerns about immigration policies affecting labor supply [23] - Prices and wages increased at a faster pace recently [23] Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - Slight contraction in economic activity, with a decline in consumer spending and manufacturing [24] - Wage pressures were moderate, with slight improvements in construction activity [24] Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic activity was generally flat, with modest wage pressures and broad-based input price growth [25] - Expectations of sustained price pressures were noted [25] Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Modest rise in economic activity, with slow hiring and persistent price pressures [26] - Loan demand grew, but the housing market remained weak [26] Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic activity edged down slightly, with stable lending activity and modest price increases [27] - Conditions in agriculture and retail trade eased slightly [27]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions, high inflation, and weaker demand, leading to reduced package volumes [1][4]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises companies providing air delivery and freight services, with many offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions. The health of these companies is closely tied to the overall economy, with major players like FedEx transporting millions of packages daily [3]. Key Trends - **Economic Uncertainty & Tariff Concerns**: The industry is affected by market volatility and tariff uncertainties, particularly with China, which may lead to higher costs and dampen consumer spending [4]. - **Demand Slowdown**: A decline in shipping demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is negatively impacting key players like UPS and FedEx, leading to withheld earnings and revenue forecasts [5]. - **Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders**: Companies are increasing dividends and buybacks to reward shareholders, indicating financial strength. UPS raised its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, while FedEx increased its dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 [6]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry ranks 202, placing it in the bottom 18% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating poor near-term prospects [7][8]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 26.5% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's increase of 17.7% [9]. Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 7.97X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.45X and the sector's 9.37X [12]. Stocks to Watch - **FedEx (FDX)**: The company is focused on rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a solid liquidity position and cost-cutting efforts driving its bottom line. FDX has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters [16][17]. - **GXO Logistics (GXO)**: The company is enhancing its logistics capabilities, benefiting from increased e-commerce and automation. GXO has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, with shares rising 9.7% over the past year [19].