Cryptocurrencies continued to lose ground after a historic round of liquidations that triggered a sharp selloff over the weekend, as trade tensions weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, slumped as much as 4% to about $111,200 on Tuesday morning in London, while Ether fell 7.8% to below $4,000. Smaller, more volatile tokens sank further still, dragging the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies down by more than $150 billion over a 24-hour period, according to CoinGecko data. ...

Group 1 - Oil prices rose after the White House indicated a willingness to negotiate with China to alleviate trade tensions, with Brent crude advancing above $63 a barrel after a significant drop of 3.8% on Friday [1] - President Trump stated that the tariffs scheduled for November 1 would remain in place, but expressed optimism about relations with China, which could impact oil supply dynamics [2] - The imposition of fees by China on US-owned vessels has led to increased shipping rates and cancellations, reflecting the ongoing trade conflict and its implications for oil logistics [3] Group 2 - The outlook for oil remains uncertain as OPEC+ increases production, potentially leading to a supply glut later this year [4] - A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has eased concerns about Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions, as Hamas began releasing Israeli hostages [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Trade Relations - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.27% on Monday due to the Trump administration's openness to a trade deal with China, which eased trade tensions [1][4] - The market is pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson supports two more quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, citing a lack of conditions for sustained inflation from tariff-induced price increases [3][4] Group 3: Euro and Political Uncertainty - The EUR/USD fell by -0.40% on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and political uncertainty in France, despite President Macron's announcement of a new cabinet [5] - The German September wholesale price index rose by +1.2% year-on-year, marking the fastest pace in six months [5] Group 4: Yen and Market Activity - The USD/JPY rose by +0.71% on Monday, with the yen under pressure from a stronger dollar and reduced demand as US equity markets rebounded [6] - Trading activity in the yen was below normal due to Japanese markets being closed for the Health-Sports Day holiday [6]

So on Friday had President Trump upping the rhetoric as far as trade tensions go. You had a statement coming out of China on Sunday, Ministry of Commerce. And then a few hours back, President Trump, as we were just alluding to there, uh pulling back ever so slightly from the edge.Let's bring in Minman Low, of course, a China correspondent. She's with us out of Shanghai uh this morning to help us understand where we are. Minman, can I just bring you in here.Then we'll talk about some of what we've heard so f ...

the uh post that we saw from the president on True Social, does that change this dynamic at all, the fact that he's saying don't worry about it even though the plan technically is still is to increase terrorists by 100% on November 1st. >> Well, certainly uh Frank, I think it provides a nearterm off rampant, but he is right. Uh November the 1st is an eternity away, so we'll have to see what happens between now and then.That's the near-term. But let me just try and level set here, Frank, about the long term ...

Market Overview - The U.K. market is experiencing a marginal increase, with the benchmark FTSE 100 up 6.06 points or 0.06% at 9,433.53, following an earlier high of 9,460.76 [2] - Mining stocks are performing well, driven by rising metal prices amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions [1][2] Mining Sector - Fresnillo shares are soaring nearly 8%, while Endeavour Mining is gaining nearly 6% [2] - Other notable increases include Antofagasta rising 3.7%, Anglo American Plc advancing 2.75%, Glencore up 2.1%, and Rio Tinto increasing by 1.3% [2] Other Companies - British retailer Pets At Home is up 2.3% following the launch of the second tranche of its £25 million share buyback program [4] - Companies such as Persimmon, M&G, and Berkeley Group Holdings are also seeing gains between 1.3% to 2.7% [3] - Conversely, Babcock International is declining by about 2.6%, and AstraZeneca is down nearly 1% after reaching an agreement with the Trump administration regarding drug prices [4][5]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached new highs due to various market factors including central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][3] - Concerns over potential tariffs on precious metals by the U.S. government have led to significant price increases in platinum and palladium [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to $4065.69 per ounce, while silver rose by 3% to $51.56 per ounce [1] - The prices of major precious metals have increased by 50% to 80% this year, dominating the commodity market [2] - The investigation into key minerals under the "Section 232" clause has created anxiety among traders, impacting the supply and pricing of silver, platinum, and palladium [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that gold is likely to break through the resistance level of $4058 per ounce, with a target of $4113 [3][4] - A bullish target of $4167 has been established, contingent on breaking the $4113 level [4] - If gold prices fall below $4025, they could drop to a range of $3937 to $3991 [5]

October 12, 2025 10:48 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook Related reports: 4th Plenum and Beyond: What to Expect (9 October 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Downloaded by Neil.Wang@tr ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices rebounded after reaching five-month lows, driven by investor optimism regarding potential U.S.-China talks aimed at reducing trade tensions between the two largest economies and oil consumers [1] Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a recovery on Monday following a decline to five-month lows in the previous session [1] - Investor sentiment is influenced by hopes that discussions between the U.S. and China could alleviate ongoing trade tensions [1] - The U.S. and China are identified as the world's two largest economies and significant oil consumers, highlighting the importance of their relationship to the oil market [1]

Trade Tensions and Market Impact - President Trump imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese goods following China's tighter rare-earth export controls, significantly escalating trade tensions that could reshape global supply chains and corporate profit margins [1] - Rare-earth elements are critical for various industries, including electric vehicles and defense systems, making China's export restrictions a strategic economic weapon against key U.S. sectors [1] - The tariff represents one of the most aggressive trade actions of Trump's presidency, with potential ripple effects across semiconductors, automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial equipment [1] - Markets initially plunged in after-hours trading but recovered somewhat on the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, indicating a volatile market environment [1] Financial Sector Earnings - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, are reporting earnings that will set the tone for corporate America [2][4] - These earnings will provide insights into consumer spending patterns, business loan demand, and overall economic health heading into the final quarter [4] - Key metrics such as net interest margins, credit quality trends, and loan loss provisions will be crucial for assessing banks' outlook amid trade tensions and a government shutdown [4] Economic Data Releases - The September CPI report is a critical economic release that will assess inflation amid escalating trade tensions, with both headline and core CPI being closely scrutinized [5] - Retail sales data will provide insights into consumer spending resilience despite economic uncertainties, which is vital for understanding purchasing power [5] - The combination of inflation and spending data will help determine the economic outlook and influence Federal Reserve policy considerations [5] Federal Reserve Commentary - Fed Chair Powell's speech will be significant in light of the recent tariff escalation and ongoing government shutdown, which complicates economic data collection [6][7] - Powell's remarks will be closely watched for insights on how trade tensions might impact inflation expectations and economic growth forecasts [7] - Any hints about the influence of trade war escalation on Fed policy could trigger significant market volatility [7] Technology and Healthcare Earnings - Critical earnings from technology and healthcare leaders, including Johnson & Johnson and semiconductor companies like ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor, will be reported this week [8] - ASML and TSM's results are particularly important for assessing the semiconductor industry's health amid trade tensions that could disrupt supply chains [8] - Johnson & Johnson's earnings will provide insights into pharmaceutical pricing and healthcare spending trends, while Intuitive Surgical's results will reflect hospital capital equipment investment [8]