Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 27, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 337.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market experienced a significant tightening, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions rising over 13 basis points to 1.45% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system exceeded 1.50%, indicating limited supply [3] - Despite the central bank's excess MLF rollover of 200 billion yuan and net reverse repo operations, the liquidity situation remains tight due to tax payments and month-end factors [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.68%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.32%, 10-year by 0.15%, 5-year by 0.12%, and 2-year by 0.05% [12] Group 5: Economic Data - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [14] - In September alone, the profit of these enterprises grew by 21.6% year-on-year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 3.9 basis points, reaching 4.625% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for long-term borrowing costs [1]

每经AI快讯，10月24日，德国10年期国债收益率升至10月14日以来的最高水平，达到2.612%，最新上 涨3.5个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by 1 basis point to 1.665% on October 24 [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a slight upward trend in interest rates [1]

Core Insights - Investors are anxiously awaiting the delayed September CPI inflation report, which is the only key economic data available during this data vacuum period [1][2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September CPI data, with Goldman Sachs predicting a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 3.02% [1][3] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of regular data releases, causing market tension and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] Economic Data Impact - The anticipated CPI data could lead to fluctuations in long-term bond yields, with potential upward pressure if the data exceeds expectations [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has declined this year, reflecting risk-averse sentiment, partly due to credit concerns related to regional banks [3] - Analysts suggest that if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.75%, it may indicate doubts about the U.S. economy achieving a "soft landing" [3] Market Sentiment - The current lack of hard data has left the market in a state of anxiety, as investors are missing critical economic indicators that typically provide insights into the economic direction [2] - There is a strong potential buying interest in the bond market, driven by increasing economic uncertainty [3]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【美国国债收益率全线小幅收低，受多因素影响】130亿美元20年期美债续发获强劲需求，支撑美债走 高，收益率全线小幅收低。美国时段午后，短端和中端品种延续涨势，利差略微趋陡，走势还受5年期 美债期货大宗买盘提振。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，美债收益率全线下行1.5至1个基点，短端和中端领 涨，2s10s和5s30s利差日内略微趋陡。 20年期国债标售表现强劲，中标收益率较发行前交易水平低1.2 个基点，助美债维持小涨。交易商获配比例为10%，间接投标人获配63.6%，直接投标人获配26.3%。 美元互换利差在美国时段早盘扩大，并收于日内高点。此前有报道称，美联储向其他监管机构展示修订 版计划，放宽对华尔街大型银行的资本金提案。 美债期权有多笔交易受关注，包括12月10年期美债跨 式期权大额买盘，权利金约2200万美元，以及11月10年期美债看跌期权大额买盘。 截至美东时间下午 04：39，美国2年期国债收益率下跌1.06个基点，报3.4445%；5年期国债收益率下跌1.05个基点，报 3.5533%。 美国10年期国债收益率下跌1.15个基点，报3.95 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the UK 10-year government bonds has decreased by 10 basis points to 4.376% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to decline, approaching $1.33, marking a one-week low with a drop of 0.31% due to inflation data falling short of market expectations, intensifying speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 1, driven by disappointing inflation data [1] - The overall inflation rate in September remained steady at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5%, also lower than the anticipated 3.7% [1] Group 2 - The UK government borrowed £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £7.2 billion [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of England may initiate rate cuts next year, following comments from Governor Bailey regarding a weak labor market and an unemployment rate rising to 4.8% [1] Group 3 - The GBP/USD technical analysis indicates that the exchange rate is close to $1.3330, failing to break the 20-day exponential moving average support level of $1.3407 [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00, with a potential bearish momentum if it falls below this level [2] Group 4 - Key support area is identified at the low of August 1 at 1.3140, while the psychological resistance level is at 1.3500 [3]

Group 1 - Russell Investments reports that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4% but remains close to fair value [1] - The firm's basic assumption is that as the labor market softens, service sector inflation should remain relatively mild [1] - This environment will allow the Federal Reserve to look past recent noise and potentially continue to lower interest rates in the upcoming month [1]