转自：新华财经 2026年1月9日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月4日分别变动-4.35BP、 8.4BP、8.54BP、3.04BP、2.77BP、3.55BP、4.95BP、5.5BP。 新华财经北京1月12日电（王柘）上周（2026年1月5日至1月9日）债市在多重利空压力下迎来剧烈调整，权益和商品市场联袂上行，沪 指站上4100点，通胀数据温和回升，对政府债券发行规模和期限的担忧也在开年得到验证，央行公告买债规模不及预期，基金年末冲量 行为更加剧了短期抛压。10年期国债收益率周初连续三个交易日上行，逼近1.90%一线后方有所企稳。同时，债市短端亦走出补跌行 情，收益率曲线整体平坦化上移。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月4日 | 1月9日 | 受动BP | | 0 | 1.051 | 1.117 | 6.6 | | 0.08 | 1.2037 | 1.27 | 6.63 | | 0. 17 | 1.2501 | 1.27 | 1.99 | | 0 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2026-1-6） | | | | 铁矿：元旦假期期间，新加坡铁矿石期货先跌后涨，整体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 窄幅波动。一季度澳巴主产区进入季节性天气敏感期，或 | | | | | 导致发运阶段性收缩。关注主流矿山季节性发运波动及钢 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 厂利润修复带来的补库节奏。钢材需求仍处传统淡季，当 | | | | | 前铁水产量已接近阶段性底部，钢厂进口矿库存创近年同 | | | | | 期新低，冬储补库刚需逐步升温，为钢价提供短期支撑。 | | | | | 国内港口库存持续处于高位区间，铁矿价格上行幅度承 | | | | | 压。综合来看，短期基本面矛盾尚不突出，供需多空因素 | | | | | 相互博弈，难以形成大幅单边行情，预计整体在区间内震 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 荡运行，关注补库落地力度与天气对发运的实际影响。 | | | | | 煤焦：元旦前后焦炭市场现货价格承压下行，焦炭价格第 | | | | | 四轮提降落地，焦化厂平均利润进一步下滑，目前焦炭供 | | | | | 需宽松，目前焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 求整体偏弱，库存压力高，关注宏观以及产线冷修情况能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 否给市场带来契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录 0.29%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录-0.08%，中证 500 股指收录 1.31%，中 | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 证 1000 股指收录 1.54%。化纤行业、航天军工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，保险、煤炭板块呈现资金净流出。央行货币 | | | | | 政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要 | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用 | | | | | 多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势 | | | | | 和金融市场运行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Bond yields spiked and stock futures dipped after third-quarter gross domestic product growth clocked in well ahead of expectations.Inflation-adjusted GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% from July through September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. That was well above the consensus estimate among economists polled by FactSet at 3%.The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped to 3.54%. The 10-year yield rose to 4.19%. ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 16 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-16） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运行。钢材出口 | | | | | 实施许可证管理制度，最直接的影响就是买单出口被"限 | | | | | 制"，对于明年钢材出口的预期需要下调，同时关注是否 | | | | | 匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于原料而言是确定性的利空。 | | | | | 策略上，依托年底成材高结转库存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻 | | | | | 找反弹抛空机会。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：上周四中央经济工作会议虽然再提"反内卷"，但 | | | | | 增量政策的信息太少，导致盘面有所回落。钢材出口实施 | | | | ...

| | | | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.174 | 4.495 | 3.564 | 2.852 | 3.571 | 3.299 | 0.271 | 3.447 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.952 | 6.150 | 1.854 | - | 4.726 | 4.494 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.503 | 3.746 | 2.149 | 1.062 ...

债市承压。 在上周五（12月12日）跌0.71%的基础上，30年期国债期货主力合约周一开盘后继续下跌，盘中最大跌幅超过1%。30年期国债活跃券的收益率则不断攀 升，最新达到2.277%。 不同于前期"股债跷跷板"效应下的债市波动，四季度以来债市接连阴跌，期限利差不断走阔。对于债市进一步大跌，有分析人士指出，债市下跌的原因并 非央行收紧货币，或者流动性紧张，而是环境出现变化后，机构预期也出现变化，主动减少长期配债资金，导致债市交易结构中配置盘退潮，交易盘主 导，从而使得债市波动放大，利率易上难下。 国债期限利差不断走阔 临近年末，债市表现得似乎不太平静。12月12日，30年期国债期货主力合约跌0.71%，12月15日开盘后30年期国债期货主力合约继续走低，盘中一度跌超 1%，最低跌至111.43元，刷新本轮调整以来新低。 | | 利率传三级 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y | 2Y 2 | 3Y 3Y | 5Y = | 7Y 10Y 10Y | 超长债 | | | 1.3850 -0.25 1.3950 0.00 1. ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-15） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运行。钢材出口 | | | | | 实施许可证管理制度，最直接的影响就是买单出口被"限 | | | | | 制"，对于明年钢材出口的预期需要下调，同时关注是否 | | | | | 匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于原料而言是确定性的利空。 | | | | | 策略上，依托年底成材高结转库存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻 | | | | | 找反弹抛空机会。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：上周四中央经济工作会议虽然再提"反内卷"，但 | | | | | 增量政策的信息太少，导致盘面有所回落。钢材出口实施 | | | | ...