1 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 27 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-27） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿基本面矛盾不突出，鲍威尔释放降息信号，大宗商品受到支撑。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国内高炉限产预期被阶段性证伪，铁矿需求影响不大，资金层面博弈加剧。 | | | | | 产业层面，铁矿全球发运环比小幅下滑，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦无明 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于高位， | | | | | 现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期，但限产 | | | | | 力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：受福建大田煤矿事故影响，以及反内卷初见成效，煤焦大幅拉涨后 | | | | | 有所回调。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 3 月以 | | | | | 来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-26） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，鲍威尔释放降息信号， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 大宗商品受到支撑。国内高炉限产预期被阶段性证伪，铁矿需求影响不大， | | | | | 资金层面博弈加剧。产业层面，铁矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉 | | | | | 铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。 | | | | | 8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期，但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本 | | | | | 面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：受福建大田煤矿事故影响，以及反内卷初见成效，煤焦夜盘大幅拉 | | | | | 涨。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 3 月以来 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏强 | 最低。与此同 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 22 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-22） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于 | | | | | 高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | | 煤焦 ...

1 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-21） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，港口库存小幅回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处 | | | | | 于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Metal Industry**: Iron ore - oscillate strongly; Coal and coke - oscillate upward; Rolled steel and rebar - oscillate at a high level; Glass - adjust; Soda ash - oscillate [2] - **Financial Industry**: CSI 50 - rebound; CSI 300 - oscillate; CSI 500 - oscillate; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillate; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillate; 10 - year Treasury bond - weaken; Gold - oscillate at a high level; Silver - oscillate at a high level [3][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - consolidate; Logs - oscillate [5][6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - oscillate upward; Palm oil - oscillate upward; Rapeseed oil - oscillate upward; Bean meal - oscillate strongly; Rapeseed meal - oscillate strongly; Bean No. 2 - oscillate strongly; Bean No. 1 - oscillate weakly [6][7] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs - oscillate weakly [7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - oscillate; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - oscillate; MEG - buy on dips; PR - wait - and - see; PF - wait - and - see [9][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and market trend analyses for various industries including black metal, financial, light industry, oil and fat, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and geopolitical situations in each industry to guide investment decisions [2][3][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Metal Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, policy expectations are falsified, and supply is seasonally decreasing. Steel mills' production drive is strong, and iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Supply - side concerns lead to limited production capacity release, and supply - demand expectations support prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: There are supply reduction expectations due to production restrictions. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Glass**: Market speculation cools, and the industry is in an adjustment cycle with low downstream inventory and un - recovered demand [2] - **Soda ash**: The market is affected by sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: Market rebounds, risk preference recovers, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates rebound, and bond prices fall. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3][4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate at a high level. Silver is also expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4][6] Light Industry - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is small, and prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: Supply - demand fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to oscillate upward [6][7] - **Meals**: Supply is abundant globally, but there are short - term bullish factors, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Supply increases, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply - demand gap narrows, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [9][10] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and costs, prices show different trends [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatility [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High-level volatility [2] - Glass: High-level volatility [2] - Soda ash: High-level volatility [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [8] - Live pigs: Volatility with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Volatility [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Wait-and-see [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the iron ore market is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after the short-term emotional release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2]. - The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. - It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. - It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. - It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. - The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market [10]. - The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume has declined, while the arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term, but there is a risk of a phased correction. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. Edible Oils and Oilseeds - **Edible Oils**: It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Oilseeds and Meals**: It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. Petrochemicals - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market. The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11].

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major commodities with capital inflows include gold (CNY 1.76 billion), silver (CNY 1.71 billion), coking coal (CNY 1.62 billion), bottle flakes (CNY 0.41 billion), and logs (CNY 0.30 billion) [1] - The overall trend shows a substantial inflow into specific commodities, particularly precious metals and certain industrial materials [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Key commodities experiencing capital outflows include palm oil (CNY 3.34 billion), crude oil (CNY 2.85 billion), polysilicon (CNY 2.43 billion), copper (CNY 1.65 billion), and soybean oil (CNY 1.39 billion) [1] - The article notes that the black and non-ferrous metal sectors are also showing slight outflows, with a focus on polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The overall commodity futures market is experiencing a significant outflow, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, with notable attention on palm oil, crude oil, soybean oil, and rubber [1] - Conversely, there is a noteworthy inflow in bottle flakes, logs, and fuel oil, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1] - The financial sector is highlighted with a focus on the 2-year government bonds and the CSI 300 index futures [1]

Group 1: Black Industry - Iron ore: Recent trading focuses on "anti-involution + stable growth", with the black market sentiment boosted. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3109.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 122.0 tons. In the medium to long term, the supply will gradually recover, demand will be relatively low, and port inventories will enter the accumulation phase. It is expected to follow the trend of finished products, with support around 800 yuan/ton [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The expectation of anti-involution policies is fermenting, and the supply-side expectation is rising. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is strengthening. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - Rebar: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in bullish sentiment on the supply side. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the profit of five major steel products is acceptable. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, it is supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - Glass: The "anti-involution" trading may continue. The demand side shows that the deep-processing orders for glass have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply side is expected to increase production, and there is still pressure. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Group 2: Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and risk appetite has decreased. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has risen by 3bps, and the market interest rate has consolidated. Treasury bonds have rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. Group 3: Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The pulp fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate mostly [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at the port last week was 62,400 cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 3,600 cubic meters. The cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the supply pressure is not significant, and the price will fluctuate mainly [6]. Group 4: Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - Oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil in June decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the off-season of demand. After the previous rise, it may correct in the short term [6]. - Meals: The estimated production of US soybeans has been lowered, but the increase in the end-of-year inventory has exceeded expectations. The consumption expectation of US soybean crushing is driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the futures price of US soybeans. After the previous rise, it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The cost and export expectations boost US soybeans, but the supply in South America is still continuing. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline. The average settlement price of live pigs in key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly. The opening rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined. In the future, the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8]. Group 6: Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply in the natural rubber production areas is tight, and the acquisition price has generally increased. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has increased structurally. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide-range fluctuating trend [10]. - PX: Under the negative impact of supply-demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the compression space of the PXN spread is not large, and the PX price fluctuates with oil prices [10]. - PTA: The cost side fluctuates, the overall supply of PTA has increased, and the load of downstream polyester factories has decreased slightly. In the medium term, the supply-demand of PTA weakens. In the short term, the price mainly fluctuates with the cost [10]. - MEG: Recently, the arrival volume of MEG has been small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, the cost side has recovered, the supply-demand has improved, and the MEG market fluctuates strongly [10]. - PR: The commodity sentiment has returned to rationality, the raw material support is average, and the polyester bottle chip market may fluctuate horizontally [10]. - PF: Factors such as weak upper and lower support and increased supply pressure of polyester staple fiber may re-dominate the market. Without new positive boosts, the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10].