周五欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.6个基点，报3.300%，逼近2025年8月7日底部3.285%，本周 累计下跌4.0个基点。两年期法债收益率涨0.7个基点，报2.182%，本周累涨2.4个基点；30年期法债收益 率跌1.7个基点，报4.255%，本周累跌5.7个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.8个基点，报3.341%，本 周累跌2.2个基点。西班牙10年期国债收益率涨3.9个基点，报3.150%，本周累涨1.6个基点。希腊10年期 国债收益率跌0.8个基点，报3.340%，本周累跌1.9个基点。 ...

彭博调查经济学家预测，截至 2 月 14 日当周初请失业金人数增至22.5 万人，略低于此前的 22.7 万人。 货币市场本周已下调对美联储降息的押注，目前预计年内第三次降息的概率约为25%，低于上周五的 50%。对货币政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率升至3.47%。 美国国债正迈向一个月以来最长连跌走势，原因是美伊紧张局势加剧，引发市场对油价推升通胀的担 忧。 美国 10 年期国债收益率连续第三日走高，上升 1 个基点至4.09%。在有报道称美国可能比预期更早对 伊朗采取军事干预后，油价周四在前一日大涨基础上继续攀升。 瑞穗国际策略师伊芙琳・戈麦斯 - 列奇蒂表示："若美国主导一场旨在更迭政权的长期行动，可能对能 源市场产生更深远、更持久的影响，挑战当前的通胀放缓叙事，并迫使市场重新评估中期通胀风险。" 在美联储 1 月 27—28 日政策会议纪要显示，多位官员暗示如果通胀持续居高不下，央行可能需要加息 后，通胀担忧已成为投资者关注的焦点。 投资者还将聚焦周四公布的美国每周就业数据，以验证会议纪要释放的信号 —— 多数与会者认为近几 个月就业下行风险已有所缓和。 美国将于当日晚些时候发售90 亿美元全新 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased slightly as investors await delayed economic data releases during a holiday-shortened trading week [1][2][3] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 3 basis points to 4.02% [1] - The 30-year Treasury bond yield also decreased by 3 basis points to 4.66% [1] - The 2-year Treasury note yield dropped 2 basis points to 3.388% [1] Group 2: Economic Data Releases - The bond market was closed for Presidents' Day, leading to a quiet start for investors [2] - Key economic data expected includes the weekly ADP Employment Change report, February's Empire Manufacturing Index, and the NAHB Housing Market Index [2] - Delayed economic data for November and December housing will be released on Wednesday, along with December's personal consumption expenditures index on Friday [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Investors are anticipating the FOMC minutes on Wednesday for insights on the last interest rate decision and future monetary policy [2] - Traders are pricing in a 90% chance of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in a range between 350-375 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with specific movements in various government bond ETFs and futures contracts, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) decreased by 0.08%, while the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2603) also fell by 0.08%, with a trading volume of 15,446 contracts and a total open interest of 110,344 contracts [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 311.4 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, reflecting ongoing liquidity management in the banking sector [1] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that the bond market typically shows strong performance in the 30 days leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by increased open market operations by the central bank and strong investment demand from banks and insurance companies [2] - The 10-year government bond yield recently fell below 1.8%, reaching a low of 1.793%, marking the first time since November 2025, with a cumulative decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2] - Market participants are optimistic about the bond market's future performance, with upcoming economic indicators such as inflation data expected to influence market dynamics post-holiday [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant adjustments under multiple negative pressures, while equity and commodity markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points. Concerns regarding government bond issuance scale and duration were validated at the beginning of the year, and the central bank's bond purchase announcement fell short of expectations, exacerbating short-term selling pressure [1]. Market Review - From January 5 to January 9, 2026, the bond market saw fluctuations in yields across various maturities, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.90% before stabilizing. The yield curve flattened overall, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2][3]. - On January 9, the yields for different maturities changed as follows: 1-year (-4.35 BP), 2-year (8.4 BP), 3-year (8.54 BP), 5-year (3.04 BP), 7-year (2.77 BP), 10-year (3.55 BP), 30-year (4.95 BP), and 50-year (5.5 BP) [2]. - The bond market faced supply concerns, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.8615% on January 5 and reaching 1.8985% on January 7 before slightly declining [5]. Primary Market - A total of 58 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 763.234 billion yuan, including 6 government bonds (49.5 billion yuan), 26 policy bank bonds (150.57 billion yuan), and 26 local government bonds (117.664 billion yuan) [5]. - The upcoming week (January 12 to January 16, 2026) plans to issue 21 bonds totaling 270.201 billion yuan, including 2 government bonds (167 billion yuan) and 14 local government bonds (70.201 billion yuan) [5]. Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year. The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but fell by 1.9% year-on-year [13]. - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,579 billion USD, an increase of 115 billion USD from the previous month, reflecting a 0.34% rise [14]. Institutional Perspectives - Financial institutions suggest that the probability of a unilateral rise in interest rates is low, with expectations for the bond market to stabilize after mid-January. Concerns remain regarding long-term bond supply and monetary easing [16]. - Analysts indicate that while there may be short-term adjustments in the market, the overall supply and funding variables remain unclear, necessitating cautious evaluation of downward interest rate potential [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: High - level Volatility [5] - Silver: High - level Volatility [5] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Volatile [6] - Offset Paper: Stable and Volatile [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wide - range Volatility [10] - PTA: Wide - range Volatility [10] - MEG: Low - level Volatility [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, with multiple long and short factors in supply and demand competing, and prices are expected to move within a range. Uncertainties in the coal - coke market in January are high, and attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream stocking rhythm. The steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies. The glass market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained [2]. - The stock index futures and options market has a positive start in the new year, and the recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend. The bond market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend [3]. - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide strong medium - and long - term support for gold prices. The log market has stable supply, weak demand, and falling costs, and prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The pulp market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. The double - offset paper market has weak fundamental driving forces, and prices are expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. The oil and fat market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to South American weather, auction policies, soybean arrival rhythms, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs may decline, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday. The rubber market has characteristics of marginal supply relief, consumption entering the traditional off - season, and high inventory, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PX and PTA markets are wide - range volatile, and the MEG market is low - level volatile. The PR market is expected to adjust strongly and volatile, and the PF market is expected to be strongly volatile [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: During the New Year's Day holiday, Singapore iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. In the first quarter, the main production areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather - sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. Steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and the current hot - metal output is close to the phased bottom. Steel mills' imported ore inventories are at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the rigid demand for winter storage replenishment is gradually increasing, providing short - term support for steel prices. However, domestic port inventories are continuously at a high level, and the upward range of iron ore prices is under pressure [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before and after New Year's Day, the spot price of the coke market declined under pressure, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. The average profit of coking plants further declined. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are loose, and the overall operating load of coking plants is stable. Some steel - mill coking plants have inventory accumulation and mainly focus on active shipments. After the fourth round of price cuts, the procurement enthusiasm of some steel mills has increased, and the output of five major steel products has increased. There is an expectation of hot - metal复产 in January, and the fundamentals of coke are expected to improve. However, under the dual suppression of the consumption off - season and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills' procurement is expected to be cautious. In January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: During the New Year's Day holiday, market activity decreased. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.36 tons to 815.18 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.41 tons to 841.02 tons, and rebar was the only variety with a decline in apparent demand. The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline by 25.84 tons to 1232.15 tons, reaching the lowest level since the Spring Festival in 2025. Traders' willingness to take goods is weak, and they may continue low - inventory operations. Attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies, and the current steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2]. - **Glass**: During the holiday, the sentiment in the spot market remained weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. There is a possibility of further price cuts in the future. At the end of the year, there will be cold - repair implementation. The market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained. The demand for float - glass is continuously weak, and the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand outlook. The overall glass demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [2][3]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90%, the SSE 50 index rose by 2.26%, the CSI 500 index rose by 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 2.09%. The insurance and healthcare sectors had net capital inflows, while the oil and gas and shipping sectors had net capital outflows. The market had a positive start in the new year, and the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points. The recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China bond rose by 2bps, FR007 rose by 4bps, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan. The central bank's liquidity injection in December 2025 showed net injections through various channels. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds rebounded slightly, and the market trend was in a narrow - range consolidation [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has led to cracks in the monetary credit of the US dollar, and the de - fiat - currency attribute of gold is prominent in the process of de - dollarization. In the global high - interest - rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero - coupon bond for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US bonds is reduced. Geopolitical risks persist, and market risk - aversion demand remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors [5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in a high - level volatile state. Short - term factors such as the US raid on Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks and risk - aversion sentiment, and the unexpected decline in the latest US PMI has strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cuts. The market currently expects two interest - rate cuts next year [5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the daily average shipment volume of logs at ports was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4900 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume decreased to less than 60,000 cubic meters due to the impact of Shandong. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in November was 1.452 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous month. In November, China's coniferous log imports were 2.2295 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.86% compared with the previous month and 2.58% compared with the same period last year. The expected arrival volume last week was 510,000 cubic meters, a increase of 66.8% compared with the previous week. As of last week, the log port inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The spot market price was relatively stable. The delivery participation willingness in the industry was low in November, and there are currently 200 registered warrants. The supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost decline is a drag, so the log price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price was relatively stable in the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was adjusted by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some broad - leaf pulp in Guangdong increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 700 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 570 US dollars/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is not high. The demand is not good, and currently, paper mills purchase raw materials on a just - in - time basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The supply side is relatively stable this week, and there is still supply pressure. The publication orders are being picked up, which supports the market on the demand side, but the social - order demand is weak. The fundamental driving force is not strong, and the price is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. There is a possibility of significant price fluctuations due to liquidity issues [6]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the export volume in December decreased by 5.2% - 5.8% compared with the previous month. The key variable that can boost the oil price, the biodiesel policy, is still full of uncertainties. The EPA will not finally determine the 2026 biofuel blending policy until the first quarter, and the Indonesian B50 plan is difficult to implement at least in the first half of the year. The export of US soybeans is weak, and the demand prospect is uncertain. A large amount of soybeans are continuously arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, the oil inventory has declined but the supply is still abundant, the post - holiday consumption boost is limited, the catering consumption recovery is weak, and the terminal procurement willingness is average. The oil market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The global soybean ending inventory is 122.4 million tons, which is relatively loose. Currently, the weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought problems, and there are still many uncertainties in subsequent growth. The northern region of Brazil has started the harvesting work, indicating that the new - season soybeans are approaching the global market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and it has no export advantage to China. Coupled with the uncertainty of US biodiesel, the market has uncertainties about the demand scale of US soybeans. The weak operation of US soybeans and Argentina's reduction of the export tariff to 25% have led to a decline in the long - term soybean import cost. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is expected to decline but remain at a high level, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, the high breeding inventory supports consumption, but the breeding efficiency is not good, and procurement is cautious, mostly on a just - in - time basis. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on South American weather, auction policy implementation, soybean arrival rhythm, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - **Soybean No.2**: Brazilian new soybeans will start to be listed in January, and the global supply is expected to turn to a loose situation. The slow sales of US soybeans to China due to market concerns about US soybean exports are still the focus of the market. Coupled with the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans are weak. Affected by a large amount of imports and state - reserve sales, the domestic soybean market shows a pattern of high inventory and high crushing volume, with loose supply. Downstream oil mills have sufficient raw - material inventory and weak demand, and the soybean No.2 market is expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to uncertainties such as the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade progress [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The national average trading weight of live pigs is 124.54 kg, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous period. In some northern provinces, due to the impact of previous pig diseases, some pigs were slaughtered in advance, and farmers' bearish outlook on the future market led to accelerated slaughter. The recent cooling and holiday consumption have accelerated the digestion speed, and the average slaughter weight in local areas has decreased. In some southwestern regions, due to the peak of cured - meat consumption, large - weight live pigs were slaughtered intensively, driving up the average slaughter weight. The inventory of large pigs in the next period will decrease, and the national average trading weight of live pigs may decline. The average settlement price of key national slaughtering enterprises is 12.12 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase compared with the previous period. The decrease in southern temperatures has increased the demand for cured meat, and some northern slaughtering enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing pigs, jointly supporting the increase in the settlement price. The weekly average operating rate of key domestic live - pig slaughtering enterprises has reached 44.29%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points. The snowfall and temperature decrease in the northern region have driven up the terminal pork consumption, and the increase in slaughtering - enterprise orders has driven up the operating rate. The average self - breeding and self - raising profit of live pigs is - 190.92 yuan/head, and the average profit of fattening piglets is - 184.18 yuan/head. The low temperature in most areas, the increase in cured - meat demand in the southwestern region in the early stage, and the increase in pork consumption have driven up the slaughtering operating rate. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday has supported the increase in pig prices, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the closed - cutting state. The main natural - rubber - producing area in Hainan is in the seasonal shutdown state, with a small amount of output in some western areas. The low enthusiasm for raw - material procurement has led to a low purchase price. The climate conditions in the Thai - producing area are stable, and the new - rubber output maintains a normal level. The northeastern Thai - producing area is expected to gradually stop cutting at the beginning of the year, and the supply side will narrow in the short term, with the raw - rubber price remaining strong. As of late December, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.6%. According to CAAM data, the domestic sales volume of new - energy vehicles in November was 1.522 million, a 4.3% increase compared with the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Rebounding [8] - Palm oil: Rebounding [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebounding [8] - Soybean meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 1: Weakly oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating [10] - Rubber: Oscillating [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Widely oscillating [12] - MEG: Oscillating at a low level [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features a loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories in 2026, with new global mine production increasing by 64 - 65 million tons, outpacing the growth of crude steel production. Real - demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a definite negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds offer opportunities to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke are supported by capacity inspections, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license system shifts market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives, impacting raw material demand and prices [2]. - The sentiment in the rebar market is boosted by policies emphasizing domestic demand, and the black sector has rebounded. The steel export license system requires a downward adjustment of steel export expectations for next year, and the impact of potential crude steel production control policies should be noted [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand imbalance. Although there is a cold - repair expectation for some production lines before the Spring Festival, supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate completion [2]. - In the financial market, the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasizes the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies. The new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" guides more foreign investment. The power consumption data shows growth, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple factors such as the US debt issue, geopolitical risks, and increased Chinese physical gold demand support the upward trend of gold prices, despite short - term fluctuations [6]. - Logs have a supply - demand pattern of weakening supply pressure and relatively weak demand, with prices expected to oscillate. Pulp has a loose supply - demand situation, and prices may remain oscillating. Offset paper prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term [6][8]. - In the oil and oilseed market, the demand for oils is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by the strengthening of crude oil. The soybean market has a relatively loose supply, and prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a complex relationship between supply and demand. The average trading weight may decline, and the average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in major producing areas and a demand - side support that is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX and PTA having wide - range oscillations, MEG having low - level oscillations, and PR and PF being on the sidelines [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase significantly, with real demand weakening due to factors like falling hot - metal production and high plate inventories. The steel export license system is a negative for raw materials, and short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supported by capacity inspections and anti - involution policies, but the steel export license system changes market expectations, affecting raw material demand and prices [2]. - Rebar: Policy boosts market sentiment, and the black sector rebounds. The steel export license system requires adjusting export expectations, and the impact of crude steel production control policies should be watched [2]. - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance persists, with cold - repair expectations not fully met, and demand weakening due to the real - estate situation [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends, and the market is affected by central bank policies and industry - specific capital flows [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a short - term net cash withdrawal by the central bank [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors support the upward trend, with short - term fluctuations affected by interest - rate policies and geopolitical risks [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias, affected by macro - economic data and geopolitical factors [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is relatively weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][8]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose, and prices may remain oscillating [8]. - Offset paper: Prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term, with potential large - scale price fluctuations [8]. Oil and Oilseeds - Oils: Demand is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by crude oil. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [8]. - Meal and soybeans: Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with short - term rebounds possible, and attention should be paid to multiple uncertainties [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may change, and demand is affected by festivals. The average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient, inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices have wide - range oscillations, affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships in the polyester industry [12]. - MEG: Prices oscillate at a low level, with long - term inventory pressure and short - term supply - side changes to be watched [12]. - PR and PF: The market is on the sidelines, with different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost situations [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Bond yields spiked and stock futures dipped after third-quarter gross domestic product growth clocked in well ahead of expectations.Inflation-adjusted GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% from July through September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. That was well above the consensus estimate among economists polled by FactSet at 3%.The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped to 3.54%. The 10-year yield rose to 4.19%. ...