Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating bullish [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillating [5] - Pulp: Bottom - range consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On - the - sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: On - the - sidelines [11] - PR: On - the - sidelines [11] - PF: On - the - sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as scheduled. After the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policies, international relations, and economic data. It is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current position for stock index long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has slightly declined, but the global shipping volume is still at a high level in recent years. The arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The daily average pig iron output has rebounded, driving up demand. Steel mills' profit ratio has declined, but the motivation for active production cuts is still insufficient. The iron ore 2601 contract is adjusting at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The suspension news from coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti - involution" have pushed up the double - coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season has boosted demand. Some coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase [2]. - **Rebar and coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine suspension news have affected the market. The output of finished products has slightly decreased, but the supply remains high. The apparent demand for five major steel products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure continues to rise. The real estate investment continues to decline, and the overall demand is weak. The cost increase has driven up the price of finished products, and the rebar 2601 contract is oscillating bullishly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has limited growth. The downstream deep - processing factory orders have slightly improved. The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect the production cost. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold - repair path [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. There was capital inflow in the banking and precious metals sectors and outflow in the catering, tourism, and education sectors. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current long - position for stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 1bp. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks affect the price. The Fed's interest rate cut and geopolitical risks support the bullish trend of gold and silver [4]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports has decreased. The arrival volume from New Zealand has declined, and the cost support has weakened. The spot price is stable, and the futures delivery willingness has increased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Double - gum paper**: The production is relatively stable, but it is in the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and it should be treated bearishly [5]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the inventory has risen. The export is weak. The US bio - fuel policy is controversial. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [5][6]. - **Meals**: The yield of US soybeans has been adjusted, and the export demand is weak. The domestic supply pressure is significant, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs may continue to rise slightly. The supply is abundant, the demand from the terminal market is weak, and the slaughter price has declined. The slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the cost in Hainan has decreased. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory has declined. The price is expected to oscillate widely [11]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX has potential supply risks; PTA's supply and demand have both increased, but the marginal supply - demand has weakened; MEG's supply pressure has increased; PR and PF are affected by geopolitical and cost factors. The market trends are complex, and some are recommended to be observed on the sidelines [11].

| | | --- | | come of a propo con con-come and con- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/22 | 4.148 | 4.712 | 3.559 | 2.747 | 3.543 | 3.297 | 0.169 | 3.402 | | 最新变化 | 0.020 | -0.002 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 0.004 | -0.009 | 0.010 | | 一周变化 | 0.109 | 0.080 | 0.081 | 0.057 | 0.070 | 0.054 | -0.050 | 0.068 | | 一月变化 | -0.128 | 0.021 | 0.050 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. stock market environment is remarkably similar to the 1999 internet bubble, entering a liquidity-driven speculative phase [1][2] Market Sentiment and Economic Signals - Despite Moody's recession model indicating a 48% probability of recession in the next 12 months, market participants are focused on liquidity-driven trading rather than fundamentals [2][3] - There are mixed economic signals, with cyclical industries like shipping and real estate showing recessionary pressure, while sectors like services, healthcare, and technology continue to expand [3][11] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The prevailing market sentiment is characterized by a belief that holding cash is less favorable due to currency devaluation, prompting consumers to spend more [3][4] - The transition from fear to "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is driving market behavior, with expectations of a significant market rally in the next 3-6 months [5][11] Trading Strategies - Recommended trading strategies include pair trading between growth and value stocks, such as going long on the Nasdaq 100 while shorting the Russell 2000 [7] - A macro-level strategy involves betting on a steepening yield curve, specifically through a "2s30s steepener" trade, which could be profitable regardless of economic conditions [9][11] Financial Environment and Market Behavior - The market's ability to overlook recession signals is primarily driven by liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and fiscal stimulus providing ample support for corporate buybacks [11][12] - The market is shifting from quality assets to speculative investments, indicating a move towards pure speculation rather than fundamental investing [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The market sentiment for various commodities has been affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand changes, and cost fluctuations [2][3]. - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having different investment outlooks, and investors need to pay attention to specific supply and demand situations and market factors of each commodity [2][3][4][5][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, supply returned, and iron ore demand rebounded with the recovery of daily average hot metal production. The short - term fundamental contradictions of iron ore are limited, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by coal mine shutdown news and the "anti - involution" expectation, the coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand rebounded with the recovery of hot metal production [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Supply will remain at a relatively high level, inventory pressure will continue to increase, and total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. In the short term, the 2601 contract of rebar will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to inventory performance [2]. - **Glass**: The rise of glass futures is driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, the inventory reduction process provides some confidence [2]. - **Soda ash**: Currently, the trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market showed different trends. Multiple financial and electric power grid sectors had capital inflows, while precious metals and agriculture sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes while controlling risk preferences [2][3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates fluctuated, and the trend of treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, and physical gold demand in China affect its price. Gold is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly, the supply pressure was not large, and the inventory was at a critical threshold. The cost - side support weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price showed a differentiated trend, the cost support for pulp prices increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Offset paper**: The spot market price was relatively stable, but the industry is in a stage of over - capacity, with stable short - term supply and poor demand. It should be treated bearishly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The supply pressure of palm oil in the producing areas increased, and the supply of domestic soybean oil may tighten in the future. Oils may oscillate widely in the short term after a previous sharp rise, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of palm oil in Malaysia [5][6]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: The total output of US soybeans increased, and the domestic supply pressure was significant. The demand was weak, and soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate increased. With the increase in the supply of large pigs, the support for the overall price weakened. The price of standard pigs may decline slightly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [6]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: The supply - side pressure decreased, the demand - side capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Polyester products**: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand situations and cost factors, and their market trends are mainly oscillating or in a wait - and - see state [8].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 17 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-17） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 措，其中 8 项与"高品质服务供给"有关。文件提出，开展"服务消费季" | | | | | 系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知名 IP 跨界合作；扩大电信、医 | | | | | 疗、教育等领域开放试点；有序扩大单方面免签国家范围；优化学生假期 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 安排，完善配套政策等。文件还首次提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试 | | | | | 点城市建设。近日，证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定 | | | | | （征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，拟针对不同持有期限设置基金赎回费率 | | | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 下限。此举或提高短期持有基金的赎回成本，进而影响短债基金等高流动 ...

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

Group 1 - The core issue this week revolves around whether Federal Reserve officials will intervene to curb market bets on sustained interest rate cuts starting next year [1] - Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, with some even predicting a 50 basis point cut [3] - The market has extended its easing expectations through 2026, prompting investors to adjust asset allocations to mitigate potential recession risks [3] Group 2 - The prediction of a 50 basis point cut has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield at its lowest level since April [3] - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index has been on a continuous rise, benefiting from easing expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar has weakened due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the dollar index failing to rebound effectively [3] Group 3 - Despite a decrease from previous peaks, U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with key inflation indicators not reaching target ranges [3] - Adjustments in tariff policies have kept costs of certain imported goods high, contributing to persistent cost pressures in manufacturing and other sectors [3] - Various factors could lead to changes in the rate cut plans [3] Group 4 - Bond portfolio manager McIntyre expects a 25 basis point cut this week, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions over inflation issues in the policy statement [4] - McIntyre has begun adjusting his investment portfolio by increasing bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries [4] - The market is particularly focused on employment concerns, with expectations of a significant volatility in the S&P 500 index around the Federal Reserve meeting [4] Group 5 - Concerns arise regarding Trump's economic advisor Milan potentially receiving a Federal Reserve Board appointment before the decision, which may influence the independence of the Fed's decision-making [4] - If the funds that entered the market due to rate cut expectations do not receive further easing signals, they may withdraw, putting short-term pressure on the stock market [4]