Well, with fresh threats of tariffs, markets reacted swiftly as we've been discussing. Our next guest, Jeff Schulzy, is ClearBridge Investments head of economic and market strategy. Jeff, it is good to see you.So, as Jared was just saying there, listen, US China trade tensions, Jeff, they're back in focus. You can see stocks sliding here. President Trump clearly sounding uh frustrated, Jeff.He's threatening these massive tariff hikes on China. Big threats. Uh no specifics yet, Jeff, but big threats.I'm just ...

Group 1: Trade Tensions and Economic Impact - China's customs crackdown on Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips indicates escalating trade tensions and a push for technological self-reliance [3][8] - U.S. President Trump's tariffs are impacting global trade, contributing to Japan's economic contraction and affecting fast-fashion retailer Shein's U.S. growth [3][8] - Japan's economy likely contracted in Q3 after five consecutive growth periods, primarily due to export challenges [3] Group 2: European Economic Concerns - Germany's Bundesbank Chief Nagel warns against complacency amid economic crises in Europe [4] - The Euro (EUR) has declined due to political instability in France, while the Yen (JPY) is nearing a one-year low influenced by expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes [4] - Finland's industrial production fell by 0.2% year-on-year, although the country reported a €0.3 billion current account balance for August [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - A U.S.-backed deal has reportedly ended the conflict between Hamas and Israel, with a ceasefire in effect and plans for hostage releases and troop withdrawals [5][8] - Ukraine has praised President Trump's involvement in the peace efforts regarding the Gaza conflict [5] Group 4: Company Performance and Analyst Revisions - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) stock reached a high of KRW 94,400 [6][8] - Several European companies, including Ferrari (RACE), Sika (SIKA), UPM (UPM), and Stora Enso (STEAV), faced downward revisions in target prices by analysts [6][8] - Citi raised its target price for Nordex SE (NDX1) to €26.5 from €22, contrasting with the downward revisions for other companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - China is implementing stricter export controls on rare earths in response to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Export Controls - The new export controls are aimed at regulating the supply of rare earths, which are critical for various high-tech industries [1] - These measures are expected to impact global supply chains, particularly for companies reliant on rare earth materials [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - The tightening of export controls is a direct reaction to the escalating trade disputes between China and the U.S. [1] - This move may further exacerbate the already strained economic relations between the two countries [1]

Economic Outlook - The World Bank has raised its GDP growth projection for China to 4.8% for 2025, up from 4.0% in April, with a forecast of 4.2% growth in 2026 due to weaker external demand and fewer fiscal stimulus measures [1] - China is expected to set a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5.0% for the next five years, with a focus on boosting consumption and potentially increasing fiscal spending to enhance the social safety net [2] Trade Relations - US-China trade tensions have escalated ahead of the APEC Summit, with significant attention on trade developments as markets assess holiday spending and economic outlook [3] - US lawmakers are advocating for a broader ban on chip-making tool sales to China, which could hinder China's self-reliance in chip production and impact global chip prices [4] - Beijing has reportedly banned the export of technologies related to rare earth mining and semiconductor production, requiring foreign firms to obtain export licenses, which may be a focal point at the APEC Summit [5] Market Performance - Despite weak consumption data, mainland equity markets showed optimism with the CSI 300 rising 1.17% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.75%, reaching new highs for 2025 [7] - Year-to-date, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have gained 19.53% and 16.80%, respectively, while the Hang Seng Index has surged 33.65% in 2025 [8] Future Sentiment - The outcome of the APEC Summit could significantly influence market sentiment, particularly if the US decides to drop tariffs on Chinese goods [6] - Potential trade agreements and policy measures could lead to a bullish sentiment in the fourth quarter, while stalled talks and escalating tensions may dampen risk sentiment [9]

Core Insights - TCW Relative Value Mid Cap Fund reported a strong recovery in U.S. equities during Q2 2025, with the fund returning 7.37% compared to 5.35% for the Russell Midcap® Value Index, following a sharp decline due to tariff announcements [1] Company Overview - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) is a major airline operating extensive domestic and international routes, with a market capitalization of $30.7 billion as of October 2, 2025 [2][3] - The stock experienced a one-month return of -11.03% but gained 60.13% over the last 52 weeks, closing at $94.83 per share [2] Investment Strategy - The fund highlighted United Airlines' modernization efforts, including fleet upgrades and enhanced customer experience through the UnitedNext program [3] - Despite the potential of United Airlines as an investment, the fund eliminated its position due to emerging risks from trade tensions between the U.S. and Asia/Pacific economies [3] Hedge Fund Interest - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was held by 73 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 67 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging United Airlines' potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - Trade tensions between China and the U.S. regarding semiconductors have intensified, particularly following China's antitrust ruling against Nvidia related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies for $7 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - China's State Administration for Market Regulation found Nvidia in violation of antitrust regulations concerning its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies [1]. - Nvidia stated its commitment to comply with laws and cooperate with government agencies regarding the impact of export controls on competition [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The ruling against Nvidia is expected to negatively impact ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China, which are currently taking place in Madrid [2]. - Access to Nvidia chips remains a significant point of contention in U.S.-China relations, despite the trade discussions not being specifically focused on semiconductors [2]. Group 3: Export Controls and Licensing - The Biden administration's AI Diffusion Rule aimed to restrict U.S.-made AI chips to various countries, with specific limitations for China and other adversaries [3]. - Although the U.S. Department of Commerce repealed the AI rule in May, the future of AI chip exports to China remains uncertain due to previous licensing agreements imposed by the Trump administration [4]. - A recent deal requires companies selling chips to China to remit 15% of their revenue to the U.S., while China has discouraged purchases of Nvidia chips, resulting in none of Nvidia's chips passing through the new export process [5].

Core Insights - B2Gold Corp (BTG) and IAMGOLD (IAG) are prominent Canadian gold producers with strong positions in the global mining industry [1][2] - Gold prices have increased by 29% this year, driven by safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks, which is expected to continue supporting gold prices [3] B2Gold Overview - B2Gold reported Q2 revenues of $692 million, a 40% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher gold prices, with flat sales volumes [4] - The company achieved gold production of 229,454 ounces in Q2, a 12.3% increase year-over-year, and is on track for total production of 970,000-1,075,000 ounces in 2025 [5] - As of June 30, 2025, B2Gold had cash and cash equivalents of $308 million and a total debt-to-capital ratio of 0.12 [6] - A positive Feasibility Study for the Gramalote Project indicates an initial life of 13 years with an average annual production of 227,000 ounces in the first five years [7] - The Fekola underground operations are projected to contribute 25,000–35,000 ounces in 2025, with significant ramp-up expected from 2026 [8] IAMGOLD Overview - IAMGOLD reported Q2 revenues of $581 million, a 51% increase year-over-year, driven by a 9% increase in sales volume and 39% higher prices, although earnings fell 19% due to higher financing costs [11] - The company produced 173,000 ounces of gold in Q2, a 4% increase year-over-year, with the Côté mine contributing 67,000 ounces [12] - IAMGOLD ended Q2 with available liquidity of $616.5 million and a total debt-to-capital ratio of 0.24 [14] - The company is advancing expansion plans for the Côté mine and has several operational projects aimed at improving efficiency and reducing costs [15] Financial Comparisons - B2Gold's return on equity is 10.42%, higher than IAMGOLD's 8.54%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [25] - B2Gold has a dividend yield of 1.97%, surpassing the industry's 1.44%, while IAMGOLD does not pay dividends [26] - Year-to-date, B2Gold has gained 66.4% and IAMGOLD has appreciated 77.6% [22] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B2Gold's 2025 earnings is 58 cents per share, indicating a 262.5% year-over-year surge [17] - IAMGOLD's earnings estimate for 2025 is 80 cents per share, reflecting a 45.5% year-over-year growth [18] Investment Considerations - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices, but B2Gold's attractive valuation, stronger estimate revisions, and superior return on equity provide it with a distinct advantage [27]

Group 1 - General Motors Company (GM) is temporarily halting production at its pickup truck plant in Silao, Mexico, affecting the output of its highest-selling models, the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra [1][9] - The planned downtime at Silao is part of GM's standard operations aimed at optimizing manufacturing efficiency, with the facility offline for the first two weeks of July and again during the weeks of Aug. 4 and Aug. 11 [2][9] - In the first half of 2025, GM sold 278,599 Silverado trucks, up 2% year over year, and 166,409 Sierra trucks, up 12% from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - Automakers often suspend production for maintenance or to reconfigure assembly lines, but extended shutdowns for critical products like pickup trucks are rare [3] - Trade tensions, particularly under the Trump administration, have disrupted automotive supply chains, with manufacturers restructuring production in response to tariff-related challenges [4] - The U.S. auto industry is heavily dependent on Chinese-sourced rare earths, as highlighted by a recent U.S.-China agreement allowing exports to resume [5]

Trade Tensions and Tariffs - US President threatens 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1 if trade talks fail [1][3][5] - EU is considering countermeasures and engaging with other nations affected by US tariffs [2][13][52] - China's exports to the US in the first half of the year decreased by nearly 10%, and imports from the US also decreased by 77% [20] - Tariffs on Chinese goods are still about 10% higher than those on other countries, potentially eroding their price competitiveness [24] Market Performance and Economic Indicators - Bitcoin surged past $120,000, up 17% and up 100% in the last 12 months [1][4] - European futures are down 06% after reaching record highs earlier this month [3] - China's overall export numbers are up 72% in the first half of the year, indicating diversification of trade [21] - China's GDP forecast for the second quarter is 51%, taking the first half of the year to 53%, comfortably above the 5% target [26] US Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues, with criticisms regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, estimated at $25 billion [30][32][36] - Betting markets reflect a 20% risk of Chair Powell being fired by the end of the year [37] Geopolitical Developments - The US will send more Patriot air defense batteries to Ukraine, funded by the European Union [2][39][40] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market - Almost 22 million new EVs could be sold this year, representing about 25% of all vehicle sales [44] - China accounts for more than two-thirds of global EV purchases [45] - In Germany, consumers are paying 25% to 60% more for an electric vehicle compared to a comparable gasoline vehicle [48]

Core Viewpoint - Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. has temporarily halted production of three vehicle models in the U.S. for the Canadian market due to escalating trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and Canada [1][2][9] Production Impact - The affected models include the Pathfinder and Murano SUVs, and the Frontier pickup, with production stopped in Tennessee and Mississippi [1][3] - The production pause is a response to a tariff dispute initiated by the Trump administration's 25% tax on auto imports, which led Canada to impose its own tariffs on American-made vehicles [2][4] Economic Viability - Nissan confirmed that the new tariffs have made it economically unviable to continue exporting these models to Canada, leading to an indefinite hold on production for the Canadian market [3][4] - Approximately 80% of Nissan's Canadian sales come from vehicles produced in Mexico and Japan, indicating a reliance on non-U.S. production for Canadian sales [4] Financial Challenges - Nissan is facing broader financial stress, reporting a net loss of $4.5 billion for the fiscal year ending in March and dealing with nearly $4.8 billion in debt due this year [5][9] - The disruption in production highlights deeper financial and operational challenges for the company, despite Canada representing a relatively small portion of its global business [5] Market Uncertainty - The future of U.S.-Canada trade talks remains uncertain, raising questions about whether the tariff situation will ease and if other automakers will take similar production steps [4]