December 5, 2025 07:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's beginning to look a lot like a rate cut We now expect a 25bp cut at the Dec Fed meeting, followed by two more 25bp cuts in Jan and Apr. The cut will likely be accompanied by messaging of a higher bar for cuts moving forward. Initial Black Friday reporting was better than feared, but we still expect slower real spending growth in 4Q. M Exhibit 1: We expect cuts in Dec, Jan, and Apr to a terminal target range of 3.0- 3.25% Key Takeaways | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economics** sector, focusing on the impact of tariffs on real spending and inflation trends in North America. Core Insights and Arguments - **Core PCE Inflation**: Core PCE inflation rose by **0.20% month-over-month (m/m)** in September, slightly below expectations of **0.22%** [2][3] - **Goods Prices**: There was an increase in goods prices, indicating a gradual passthrough of tariffs, which is expected to weigh on real goods spending, particularly in the fourth quarter (4Q) [2][5] - **Real Personal Spending**: Real personal spending was flat in September, with a tracking of **3Q real spending** up **2.7% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar)** [2][19] - **Nominal Income**: Nominal income increased by **0.4%**, with labor compensation also up by **0.4%**. Real disposable personal income rose by **0.1% m/m** [2][24] - **Spending Trends**: Real goods spending fell by **0.4% m/m**, while real services spending rose by **0.2% m/m**. This indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards services amidst rising goods prices [20][21] Additional Important Details - **Tariff Impact**: The total tariff push to PCE prices has been estimated at about **30 basis points (bp)** so far, with expectations of continued inflationary pressure from tariffs into 4Q and 1Q [5][25] - **Housing Inflation**: Core services inflation decelerated, particularly in shelter inflation, which is believed to be exaggerated due to regional noise and seasonal factors [6][7] - **Airfares**: A slight underperformance in core inflation expectations was attributed to airfares, which accelerated less than anticipated [7] - **Future Projections**: The forecast for **4Q core PCE** is set at **3.0%**, slightly below the Federal Reserve's forecast of **3.1%** [8] Conclusion - The overall economic outlook indicates a cooling in real spending due to rising goods prices driven by tariffs, with expectations of slower consumption growth in the upcoming quarters. The data suggests a complex interplay between inflation, consumer behavior, and economic policy that will require close monitoring [25]

Core Insights - A new report from WPP Media indicates that global advertising revenue is projected to reach $1.14 trillion in the current year [1] Industry Overview - The report highlights a significant growth in global ad revenue, reflecting the increasing investment in advertising across various sectors [1]

Core Insights - Google has released its Year in Search 2025, highlighting significant events and cultural moments that drove search interest spikes [1][2] Group 1: Trending Searches - The top trending search in the U.S. for 2025 was Charlie Kirk, who was fatally shot during a campus event, leading to a surge in search activity [1] - Other notable searches included Netflix's "KPop Demon Hunters," the viral collectible Labubu, Apple's iPhone 17, and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed into law in July [2][8] - Additional significant search spikes were observed for New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, the AI platform DeepSeek, the government shutdown, the FIFA Club World Cup, and tariffs [2][8] Group 2: Trending News and Events - Major news-related searches included the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the government shutdown, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk [8] - Other trending topics encompassed protests, natural disasters, and significant political events such as the U.S. presidential inauguration and the selection of a new Pope [8]

Group 1: Tariff Implications - The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of President Trump's tariffs, with a decision expected in early 2026, potentially affecting $90 billion in tariff revenue for fiscal year 2025 [2] - U.S. households are projected to incur an additional cost of $1,100 in 2025 due to tariffs, with an estimated income loss of $1,700 per household [3] - The apparel sector, particularly Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), has seen significant stock declines, with shares down over 50% year-to-date in 2025 due to tariff impacts [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The auto industry has experienced volatility due to tariffs, with a 25% tariff on non-compliant vehicles causing significant stock drops for major automakers like General Motors and Ford [6] - Following a potential tariff pause, automaker stocks rebounded, indicating the market's sensitivity to tariff announcements [6] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant crash in April 2025 due to new tariff policies, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.84% [10] Group 3: Consumer Impact - New tariffs could lead to a 107% increase in prices for Italian pasta, potentially causing a pasta shortage in American supermarkets by January 2026 [9] - The meatpacking industry, dominated by major players like JBS and Tyson Foods, is under scrutiny for rising food prices, which have been exacerbated by tariff policies [8] Group 4: Overall Market Volatility - Analysts note that 2025 has been characterized by unusual market volatility driven by tariffs, rate uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions [10] - Despite significant market declines, the S&P 500 managed a 17% overall advance in 2025, showcasing the market's resilience [10] - The market's reaction to tariff announcements often involves initial declines followed by recoveries, indicating a complex relationship between policy and investor sentiment [12]

Core Viewpoint - Costco is challenging the Trump administration's tariffs through a lawsuit, highlighting the economic risks associated with the tariffs and the political implications for the company [1][5][6]. Legal Context - The lawsuit was filed in early December with the US Court of International Trade, seeking refunds if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful [5]. - The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the case, with arguments heard on November 5, raising doubts about the justification for such tariffs [3]. Financial Implications - Costco's annual revenue stands at $275.2 billion, and even a small share of the disputed tariff amount could significantly impact its profitability, especially given its thin margins [4][7]. - The company reported $86.16 billion in net sales and $2.61 billion in net income for Q4 2025, with comparable sales increasing by 5.7% [9]. Earnings Call Focus - The upcoming Q1 2026 earnings call on December 11 will serve as a platform for Costco to explain its legal strategy and the financial stakes involved in the lawsuit [8]. - Investors are particularly interested in management's comments regarding the lawsuit and its potential impact on profit margins [10]. Margin Protection Strategies - Costco's CFO indicated a mix of efficiency gains and sourcing shifts as strategies to manage tariff impacts, with a focus on maintaining profit margins [10][12]. - The private-label brand Kirkland Signature is seen as a key tool against tariff pressures, with management noting improved margins due to increased penetration [13]. E-Commerce and Supply Chain - E-commerce growth of over 15% in fiscal 2025 provides Costco with strategic flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts [14]. - The company is working on diversifying its supply chain to reduce reliance on imports from China, which is crucial for long-term tariff exposure management [15]. Competitive Landscape - Costco faces competitive pressures from rivals like Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale, which may benefit from avoiding political entanglements [18]. - Despite these challenges, Costco's membership model and plans to open 35 new warehouses in fiscal 2026 indicate confidence in long-term demand [19][20].

And we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we've taken in literally trillions of dollars and we're going to be giving uh a nice uh dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt. You won't even have income tax to pay because the money we're taking in is so great. The word affordability is a conj job by the Democrats.>> He said we stopped inflation in its tracks. Well, that's not really true. He inherited inflation at 3%.As I said, it had come way, way down. It did go down a bi ...

French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc https://t.co/bVy0pt2Nj4 ...

Core Insights - Costco is expanding its in-house brand, Kirkland Signature, to mitigate tariff pressures and enhance customer value [1][5][11] - High member retention rates and bulk purchasing appeal position Costco favorably during a period of reduced consumer spending [3][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Costco's net sales increased by 8% year-over-year, with a fiscal year increase of 8.1% [4] - The company boasts a 90% member retention rate, indicating strong customer loyalty [3] - E-commerce sales grew by 15.6% in fiscal year 2025, reaching nearly $20 billion [6] Group 2: Product Strategy - Over 30 new Kirkland products were added in Q4 2025, with plans for further expansion across various categories [5] - Kirkland products typically offer 15% to 20% more value compared to national brands, enhancing customer appeal [3] Group 3: Market Position - Costco's market capitalization stands at $397 billion, with a current stock price of $894.49 [5] - The company leads competitors in net sales, although Sam's Club has a slight advantage in physical locations [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to report quarterly results on December 11, which will provide insights into ongoing performance [11] - Costco's focus on e-commerce growth and maintaining low prices is aimed at sustaining membership renewals and long-term success [11]

Core Viewpoint - RH, the high-end home furnishings company, has faced significant challenges in 2025, primarily due to a sluggish housing market and increased tariffs, leading to a nearly 60% decline in stock value this year [2][3][11] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has experienced multiple boom-and-bust cycles over the past decade, with a notable downturn in 2025 as the housing market hit a 30-year low [2] - Despite the stock's poor performance, RH reported an 8.4% revenue growth in the second quarter of 2025, indicating solid operational performance [5] - The stock is currently trading at $161.39, with a market capitalization of $3 billion, and has a gross margin of 44.65% [9] Group 2: Housing Market Impact - The housing market's decline has significantly impacted RH's business, with CEO Gary Friedman stating it is operating in "the worst housing market in almost 50 years" [7] - There is uncertainty regarding the housing market's recovery in 2026, although a potential decrease in interest rates could improve mortgage affordability [7][8] Group 3: European Expansion - RH is actively expanding into Europe, having opened several galleries, including RH Paris, and plans to open more in marquee markets like London and Milan in 2026 [9][10] - The company anticipates that its European and Middle Eastern expansion could double its business size within the next five to seven years [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The stock may be undervalued following the sell-off in 2025, and if the company can deliver on its growth strategies and the macroeconomic environment improves, a recovery in 2026 is possible [11]