helium burning $400k weekly from mobile revenue at $448m market cap. render at $1.2b with unclear revenue share. grass down 90% facing 72% dilution tomorrow. hivemapper up 74% on enterprise deals but only 36% global coverage. 500k helium mobile signups, 100% revenue burns hnt. depin finally has one project with actual users paying actual fees creating actual deflation. the rest are infrastructure tokens hoping for 2028. ...

Transaction Fee & Deflation - Etching transactions, exemplified by a "stupid frog GIF," incurred 82,000 sats fee, leading to 613,470 sats deflation [1] - OP_RETURN transactions, while saving UTXOs, resulted in zero deflation, with a 97,000 sats fee [1] - Industry analysis suggests increasing the dust limit to 5,000 sats could significantly increase the deflationary effect of etching, potentially requiring burning 9,295,000 sats for the "stupid frog GIF" [2] UTXO Management - Etching transactions added 1,859 UTXOs forever, costing 330 sats each [1] - OP_RETURN transactions spent 29 UTXOs, saving 1,888 UTXOs compared to etching [2] Technical Considerations - Etching transactions occupied 80 kB of space, while OP_RETURN transactions used 44 kB [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asia Pacific** region, particularly the economic impacts of **China's deflationary pressures** on other Asian economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Deflationary Environment**: - China's economy has been experiencing deflation for 10 consecutive quarters, with a GDP deflator of -1.0% as of Q3 2025, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2][4][44]. - The non-commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) in Asia excluding China is also declining, influenced by China's trade surpluses and excess capacity [1][10]. 2. **Impact on Asia Ex China**: - The report identifies **Thailand, Malaysia, and Korea** as the most exposed economies to China's deflationary pressures, while **Australia and Japan** are the least exposed [3][76][80]. - The PPI for Thailand is at -1.2%, Malaysia at -5.0%, and Korea at 0.7%, indicating varying levels of exposure to deflation [76]. 3. **Central Banks' Response**: - Central banks in Asia are likely to continue easing monetary policy, as inflation is within or below comfort zones for eight out of ten economies in the region [5]. 4. **Trade Dynamics**: - China's trade surplus has increased significantly, from **US$890 billion** in September 2024 to **US$1,174 billion** currently, with exports to the US declining by **27%** year-on-year [56][62]. - The share of Asia ex China in China's exports has risen from **39%** to **41%** [10]. 5. **Sectoral Analysis**: - Sectors most affected by China's deflation include **motor vehicles, electronics, and battery manufacturing**. These sectors are experiencing significant pricing pressures due to competitive dynamics with China [67][70]. - The report highlights that **13 out of 14 non-commodity manufacturing sectors** in China are seeing price declines, with pharmaceuticals and automotive sectors being particularly impacted [47][52]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Risks to the Economic Outlook**: - Potential risks include stronger global growth or intensified anti-involution efforts in China, which could alter the current deflationary trajectory [6]. 2. **Framework for Assessment**: - A scorecard approach is introduced to assess the exposure of Asian economies to China's deflation, considering factors like PPI weight, correlation with China's PPI, and export similarity [3][75]. 3. **Long-term Implications**: - Without significant stimulus to boost demand, achieving a sustained exit from deflation in China remains challenging, which will continue to affect the broader Asian economic landscape [4][43]. 4. **Sector-Specific Pricing Trends**: - Pricing trends in key sectors such as **autos and batteries** remain weak, with significant price declines noted in recent months [52][54]. 5. **Comparative Analysis of Economies**: - Japan and Australia show resilience with positive PPI growth, indicating lower exposure to deflationary pressures compared to their Asian counterparts [80][81]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of China's economic conditions and their implications for the broader Asia Pacific region.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing inflation trends and upstream prices influenced by anti-involution efforts [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: - Headline CPI remained soft at -0.3% YoY, while core inflation rose to 1.0% YoY for the first time in 19 months, indicating a gradual recovery in core goods inflation, particularly in gold jewelry and durable goods [1][4][6]. - Core goods inflation is estimated at 1.5% YoY, the highest since January 2020, driven by significant increases in gold jewelry prices (6.5% MoM and 42.1% YoY) [4][6][9]. - **PPI Dynamics**: - PPI deflation narrowed to -2.3% YoY, with a sequential change of 0.0% MoM, suggesting some stabilization in upstream prices due to anti-involution initiatives [4][6][16]. - The contraction in ferrous metal smelting narrowed significantly to -0.6% YoY from -10.0% YoY two months prior, indicating a recovery in this sector [4][6][16]. - **Sector Performance**: - Downstream sectors showed limited improvement, with PPI for autos contracting by -3.0% YoY and electronics prices declining by -2.5% YoY, highlighting ongoing demand challenges [4][6][16]. - Energy prices negatively impacted headline CPI, with transportation fuel prices dropping -1.7% MoM [4][6]. - **Future Outlook**: - The GDP deflator is expected to find a bottom in Q3 2025, supported by base effects and anti-involution initiatives, but the medium-term reflation outlook remains uncertain and heavily reliant on demand-side factors [6][7]. - Policymakers are expected to focus on supply and demand rebalancing in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, with potential regulatory actions in the solar sector [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - The report notes that one-off factors, such as gold prices and trade-in subsidies, may not provide sustainable inflationary impulses going forward, emphasizing the need for a more balanced demand-supply dynamic [7][16]. - **Sector-Specific Developments**: - The report highlights price increases in solar energy and a narrowing contraction in lithium battery prices, indicating potential growth areas within the energy sector [4][6][16]. - **Policy Implications**: - The anti-involution initiative is seen as a critical factor in stabilizing prices, with explicit announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expected to support this effort [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China, particularly regarding inflation and sector performance.

Group 1: UK Tax Burden and Economic Impact - The UK's tax burden is projected to rise sharply, with government revenues expected to account for 40.6% of GDP by 2029, up from 38.3% in 2024, equating to approximately £65 billion in additional tax revenue [4][45][46] - Rachel Reeves is raising taxes at the fastest pace in the G7, with the IMF indicating that no other country is increasing levies as quickly as the UK [4][44][40] - The rising tax burden is seen as detrimental to Britain's long-term productivity and international competitiveness, potentially making the UK a laggard in economic growth [2][46][48] Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - EasyJet's shares fell nearly 5%, leading the FTSE 100 index's decline, which ended the trading session down 0.3% [1] - Burberry Group shares rose by 3.3%, buoyed by positive performance in luxury stocks, particularly following LVMH's revenue increase [5] - Morgan Stanley reported a record revenue of $18.2 billion in the third quarter, with investment banking revenue rising to $2.1 billion, reflecting a resurgence in deal-making activity [54][56] Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,206.59, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the US and UK, and concerns over stagflation [11][12][13] - Silver prices also surged, eclipsing $53 an ounce, with the Royal Mint warning of delivery delays due to increased demand [29][31] - The demand for precious metals is attributed to their status as safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [12][86] Group 4: IMF Insights and Recommendations - The IMF has called for the UK Chancellor to maintain two official economic forecasts annually to ensure transparency and stability in fiscal policy [6][7] - The IMF's analysis predicts that debt levels in rich countries will surpass 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, with the UK expected to see its debt rise from 94.6% to 96.4% of GDP by 2030 [33][36] - The IMF's projections highlight the need for countries to balance tax increases with growth-friendly reforms to avoid long-term economic stagnation [48][34]

China’s deflation eased in September, leaving the country on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since market reforms in the late 1970s. https://t.co/fxffdWMsrt ...

Transaction Analysis - A seemingly inexpensive on-chain transaction involving a "weird frog gif" actually cost approximately $840 due to the burning of 613.47 thousand sats (1,859 outputs of 330 sats each) [1] - This type of transaction burns all outputs, sending UTXOs to unspendable addresses, harming the UTXO set by creating 1,859 outputs that will never be spent [1] Market Impact - Spammers incur significant financial losses through these transactions [2] - HODLers benefit from a 0.000000029% deflation resulting from these burns, which accumulates as such activities persist [2] Comparison - This costly spam is different from OP_RETURN, where storing a Mechanic picture cost only $120 for a bigger image without burning anything [2]

Core Viewpoint - December Swiss franc futures are presenting a selling opportunity due to ongoing price weakness and bearish technical indicators [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Prices for December Swiss franc futures are trending lower, recently hitting a nine-week low [1]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish posture, with the blue MACD line below the red trigger line, indicating that bears have a near-term technical advantage [1]. - A move below the support level of 1.2473 would signal a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 1.2000 or lower [2]. Fundamental Factors - U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports have created uncertainty, negatively impacting the Swiss currency and economy [2]. - Switzerland is experiencing slow growth and very low inflation, which is bordering on deflation [2]. - Technical resistance is identified at 1.2685, where a protective buy stop should be placed [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focused on the Chinese economy and its various dynamics, including growth rates, export performance, and geopolitical factors affecting trade and investment. Key Topics and Insights 1. Slowing Growth and Policy Stimulus - Major activity indicators such as industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment showed notable year-over-year growth deceleration in July and August [4][5] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for additional policy easing due to signs of economic weakening, although policymakers appear relatively unconcerned as growth remains above 5% year-over-year [4][5] 2. Chinese Export Slowdown - There is a divergence in investor opinions regarding the outlook for Chinese exports, with some believing a slowdown is delayed while others expect it to persist despite increased US tariffs [6] - The forecast for China's current account surplus is around 3.5% of GDP for 2025 and 2026, which is significantly higher than consensus expectations [6] 3. Anti-involution and Deflation - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a medium-term strategy to combat deflation and improve corporate profitability, though its effects may take time to materialize [7][9] - The government aims to address issues such as overcapacity and excessive price competition, which hinder innovation and high-quality growth [9] 4. Disconnect Between Real Economy and Equity Market - There is a notable disconnect between weak domestic demand and strong equity market performance, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [10] - Despite concerns, many investors remain positive on Chinese equities, viewing them favorably compared to other investment options [10][11] 5. Focus on Consumption in the 15th Five Year Plan - Investors are concerned about China's reliance on exports and the low share of household consumption in GDP, fearing potential economic challenges similar to those faced by Japan in the 1990s [12][14] - There is cautious optimism regarding a policy shift towards boosting consumption, although the government is still focused on technological innovation and high-tech manufacturing [15] 6. US-China Relations and Geopolitics - Discussions highlighted the importance of US-China relations, with clients expressing interest in potential trade agreements and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Taiwan [16] - The sentiment among investors is shifting towards a multipolar world, with expectations of a weaker Dollar and stronger RMB in the long term [16] Additional Important Insights - The implementation of previously announced policies, such as the RMB 500 billion financing instrument for infrastructure projects, is expected, but new easing measures are unlikely in the short term [5] - The potential for significant capital flows from households into the equity market could drive market performance higher in the coming quarters [11] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy and its investment landscape.

RT Marty Bent (@MartyBent)All tech is deflationary. We’ve experienced insane productivity gains over the last 50 years and yet the cost of living has risen consistently.Deflation can’t stop the ills of money printing.Deflationary tech needs to be paired with scarce money to reap the optimum benefits. ...