💥 BREAKING:According to @Polymarket, there is a 74% chance we'll see a 25 bps rate cut in December.Extremely bullish for the markets! https://t.co/VQYtwxedc1 ...

Core Points - The US government shutdown has officially begun, causing market volatility and investor concern [1][7] - Investors fear prolonged shutdowns could lead to mass federal worker layoffs, impacting the labor market and consumer spending [2] - Key economic data releases are affected, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics postponing the September jobs report [3] Market Reactions - US stocks opened lower, particularly in the tech sector, with the Nasdaq Composite experiencing significant losses [3][4] - Long-end US Treasury yields decreased slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 4.137% [4] - The shutdown coincided with disappointing private payroll data, showing a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, raising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [5] Commodity Performance - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,898.18 per ounce, continuing a record-breaking trend [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has initiated the first rate cut of the year, with potential for more cuts before the end of 2025, prompting fixed income investors to adjust their portfolios for the changing interest rate environment [1] - A steeper yield curve is emerging as short-term rates decline, necessitating a re-strategization of portfolios to accommodate both short-term and long-term changes [2] Active ETFs Advantages - Active ETFs provide diversified exposure and flexibility in uncertain markets, allowing portfolio managers to adjust holdings based on market conditions, unlike passive funds that are tied to market value weight indexes [3][6] - The Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF (TPLS) offers core exposure with added flexibility compared to passive funds [7] - The Thornburg Multi Sector Bond ETF (TMB) provides income diversification and active management, making it suitable for a rate-cutting environment [8] Market Dynamics - Cash and shorter-dated securities face reinvestment risk as yields fall, while longer-dated bonds may experience volatility due to various economic factors [3] - Investors are encouraged to avoid closely tracking the Fed's movements and instead leverage active ETFs to navigate the new macro environment of lower rates [4] Portfolio Management - Portfolio managers can adjust ETF holdings to capture upside or mitigate downside risk, particularly in a yield-focused fund [5] - The complexity of bond markets necessitates active management to achieve market objectives and maximize income opportunities [5]

ADP Employment- Actual: -32k- Expected: 51k🇺🇸 U.S. LABOR MARKET IS WEAKENING.RATE CUT ODDS RISING.THIS IS WHY BITCOIN IS PUMPING! https://t.co/SisesLl9Kx ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE ODDS OF AN OCTOBER RATE CUT IS NOW AT 100%.BULLISH FOR #CRYPTO 🚀 https://t.co/uV8OoigUDY ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED RATE CUT ODDS FOR OCTOBER JUST HIT 96.7%BULLISH FOR MARKETS !! https://t.co/qeLcy4YsHb ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.12% due to concerns over a potential government shutdown and comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicating risks of stagflation, alongside a significant drop in the Conference Board US consumer confidence index to a 5-month low of 94.2 [1][3] - The US July S&P composite-20 home price index showed a year-over-year increase of +1.82%, surpassing expectations of +1.55%, although this represents the slowest growth rate in two years [2] - The US September MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined by -0.9 to 40.6, falling short of expectations for an increase to 43.3 [3] Labor Market Insights - The August JOLTS job openings rose by +19,000 to 7.227 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated 7.200 million [3] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted risks to employment are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are on the upside, reflecting concerns about the labor market's stability [4] Central Bank Policies - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29, suggesting a shift in Fed policy [4] - The euro gained support from a weaker dollar and stronger-than-expected price pressures in Germany, with the German September CPI rising more than anticipated [5] - Central bank divergence is evident, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year [6]

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver reached a new 14-year peak as the U.S. dollar weakened amid rising risks of a government shutdown, with iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gaining about 15.7% over the past month, outperforming SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which advanced about 9% [1] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Applications - Approximately half of silver's total demand comes from industrial applications, with a 4% increase in industrial demand reported in 2024, particularly driven by green energy initiatives [2] - Silver is crucial in solar power and electric vehicle applications, with China's solar cell exports increasing over 70% in the first half of the year, primarily due to strong shipments to India [3] - The automotive industry's increasing vehicle sophistication and gradual electrification of powertrains are expected to drive higher silver demand [3] - The global rollout of 5G technology is another positive factor for silver, as electronic components for 5G heavily rely on silver [4] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2025 occurred in September, with an 89.3% chance of a further 25-basis point cut in October and 68.2% expecting another cut in December, influenced by a softer labor market [5] - Continued policy easing by the Fed could weaken the U.S. dollar, which typically boosts silver prices, as evidenced by the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) declining 7% this year [6] Group 4: Safe-Haven Demand - Silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset has increased amid moderate trade tensions and the potential for a U.S. government shutdown, with rising uncertainty boosting its demand [7][8] Group 5: ETFs and Investment Vehicles - In addition to iShares Silver Trust (SLV), other ETFs such as Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) are also performing well, hovering around 52-week highs [9]

Hong Kong Real Estate Equities Where could the next opportunities come from? Hong Kong Housing market recovery expected to continue. The housing market has been recovering largely as we had anticipated (The tide is about to turn, 19 September 2024) – price growth has resumed modestly (YTD: +1.3%), though at a softer-than- expected magnitude, while the transaction volume is improving steadily. Based on the current run rate, primary volume could exceed our expectations and grow 13% y/y to 19k units, hitting a ...

Group 1 - Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) has reached a record high after breaking out of a base, indicating strong performance in the gold stock sector [1] - TFPM, along with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Kinross Gold (KGC), is leading the IBD Sector Leaders list, showcasing the strength of these gold stocks [1] - The fundamentals and robust chart of TFPM have contributed to its inclusion in the IBD 50, highlighting its investment potential [1] Group 2 - A gold streaming company reported a profit growth of 118%, indicating significant financial performance in the gold sector [2] - The gold stock is currently in the buy zone, suggesting favorable conditions for potential investors [2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various gold stocks showing strong gains and attracting investor interest [4]