Market Overview - The equity markets ended marginally lower, with the BSE Sensex closing at 84,559.65, down 120.21 points or 0.14 percent, and the NSE Nifty falling 41.55 points or 0.16 percent to settle at 25,818.55 [2][9] - Nearly two-thirds of traded stocks declined, with 2,761 out of 4,328 stocks on the BSE experiencing losses, and 196 stocks hitting 52-week lows [2][3] Currency Impact - The Indian rupee opened at a record low of 91.07 against the US dollar but briefly recovered to 89.96 before falling back above 90, influenced by continued foreign outflows [3][4] - The rupee's volatility is expected to persist, with predictions of trading in the 89.80–90.80 range [4] Sector Performance - Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank saw a gain of 1.20 percent, while Nifty Media dropped by 1.80 percent, with Nifty Realty and FMCG also lagging [6] - The Nifty Midcap 100 declined by 321.95 points or 0.54 percent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell by 126.60 points or 0.73 percent [6] Notable Stock Movements - Shriram Finance led the gainers, rising 2.07 percent to ₹866.00, followed by State Bank of India at ₹976.35, Hindalco at ₹848.00, Eicher Motors at ₹7,143.00, and Tata Consumer at ₹1,180.00 [7] - On the losing side, Max Healthcare plunged 3.71 percent to ₹1,033.20, Apollo Hospitals fell 1.98 percent to ₹6,912.00, and HDFC Life slipped 1.49 percent to ₹752.95 [8] Technical Analysis - The market faced resistance near 25,920/84,900, forming a bearish candle on daily charts, indicating a negative trend [9] - A decisive slip below 25,700 could trigger a correction towards 25,500–25,400, while the 25,950-26,000 zone is expected to act as crucial resistance [10]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - Allegion plc is a significant player in the global security products market, specializing in access control systems, with a market capitalization of $13.8 billion and a diverse portfolio of well-known brands [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Allegion is categorized as a large-cap stock, reflecting its substantial influence in the security and safety industry [2]. - The company serves commercial, institutional, and residential markets, with a strong presence in North America and expanding international operations [2]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Allegion reached a 52-week high of $180.68 on October 21, but has since seen a decline, trading approximately 9.8% below that peak [3]. - Over the past three months, Allegion's stock has decreased by 7.5%, underperforming the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLI) gain of 3.1% during the same period [3]. - Year-to-date, Allegion has delivered strong gains of 24.8% and 17.5% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming XLI's 19.2% rise in 2025 and 14.2% return over the past year [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Allegion reported revenue of $1.07 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.7%, with 5.9% organic growth [5]. - Adjusted EPS for the quarter increased by 6.5% to $2.30, indicating healthy profitability [5]. - The Americas region drove strong performance, and recent acquisitions contributed to international growth [5].

Company Overview - FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) is valued at $7.23 billion and operates over 3,000 pawnshops across the U.S., Latin America, and the U.K. [1] - The company provides retail point-of-sale (POS) payment solutions and has expanded into the U.K. through the acquisition of H&T Group [1]. Technical Performance - FCFS has a 100% "Buy" opinion from Barchart, indicating strong technical momentum [6][7]. - The stock has gained 53.56% over the past year and has recently traded at $163.40, with a 50-day moving average of $157.11 [7]. - FCFS hit an all-time high of $166.08 on November 6 [4]. Market Indicators - The company has a Weighted Alpha of +57.01 and a trailing price-earnings ratio of 19.69x [7]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58.82, with a technical support level around $161.21 [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 6.75% this year and by an additional 11.42% next year [8]. - Earnings are estimated to increase by 29.40% this year and by another 16.71% next year [8]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.03% [8].

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Micron Technology - Micron is set to report earnings on Wednesday, following Broadcom and Oracle, amidst ongoing discussions about the AI bubble and its impact on tech stocks [1][2] - The stock has shown a significant upward trajectory, with a year-to-date increase of over 188% [11] - Despite recent dips, Micron's chart has held up better than many peers, with key support levels identified around 238 and 210.41 [6][10] - Technical indicators suggest a potential trend change, with moving averages diverging and RSI showing mixed signals of bearish divergence and overbought conditions [7][8][9] Darden Restaurants - Darden will report earnings on Thursday, with its stock showing choppy performance and notable gaps in its chart [12][13] - Key resistance levels are identified around 190 and 195, with a significant support level at 180 [16][19] - Analyst coverage is mixed, with bullish calls from several firms and bearish calls citing higher food costs and smaller portion offerings [22] - The average price target for Darden is approximately $220, indicating potential upside from current trading levels [22] Nike - Nike is expected to report earnings with analysts anticipating a decline in EPS of over 50% and a revenue drop of about 1.5% [23][24] - The stock has faced challenges due to tariff news affecting the apparel sector, with significant support levels identified around 59 to 60 [25][26] - Technical analysis shows a falling wedge pattern, with potential resistance around 69 and 70 [27][30] - Year-to-date, Nike is down nearly 11%, although it has seen a recovery of 7.5% over the last six months [33]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Group 1 - McCormick's flavor franchise is experiencing a healthy phase of volume-driven growth despite facing tariffs and expansion efforts in Mexico [1] - The company is characterized as a high-quality dividend-growing compounder based on current stock prices [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy discussed focuses on uncovering high-growth companies in the micro-cap segment, utilizing technical analysis and the CAN SLIM methodology [1] - Key indicators for identifying potential investment opportunities include strong financial momentum, rapid earnings growth, and signs of institutional interest [1] - The research process integrates both fundamental and technical perspectives, paying attention to relative strength, unusual trading volume, and earnings acceleration [1]

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points but provided hawkish forward guidance, resulting in a lack of significant impact on Bitcoin's price [1] - Bitcoin's price remains directionless, stuck in a mini-rising channel within a broader downtrend [2] Technical Analysis - A breakout above the bearish trendline would signal the end of the downtrend from the record high, while a drop below the mini ascending channel could lead to deeper losses [2] - The MACD histogram is on the verge of crossing above zero, indicating potential renewed bullish momentum for Bitcoin [3] Dollar Index Impact - The dollar index (DXY) fell to 98.13, the lowest since October 17, indicating a bearish shift in momentum that could benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4][5] - A weaker dollar generally supports the performance of cryptocurrencies [4] Market Sentiment - The Nasdaq has stabilized above key moving averages, providing bullish signals for the crypto market [6] - Bitcoin sellers appear to have exhausted their momentum, with prices holding steady despite regulatory challenges [6] Resistance Levels - If Bitcoin prices break out, resistance levels between $97,000 and $108,000 will be significant, identified by key moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud [7] ETF Flows - Concerns remain regarding ETF flows, with no net inflows exceeding $500 million in the past month and cumulative net inflows since late November totaling only $219 million [8]

Larger Downtrend Context - The market is experiencing a larger downtrend, with a decisive push through today's low signaling a clear bearish signal [1] - The downtrend has accelerated recently, particularly in relation to the falling 50-day average, which has capped advances and produced lower highs [1] - Overall volatility has remained muted since the pullback began from the October swing high, where the 50-day line acted as firm resistance [1] Major Support Zone Below - Crude oil is currently positioned above a significant support band that extends down to the 2025 low of $55.23 [2] - The bullish reversal in October indicated genuine buyer conviction, suggesting potential for another demand surge if the support zone holds [2] - Even if lower prices occur in the short term, the major support area implies that downside containment is likely [2] Upside Reversal Requirements - A meaningful shift to bullish control requires a sustained breakout above the recent lower swing high at $60.56 to signal a short-term trend change [3] - More aggressive traders are monitoring for a reclaim of Wednesday's three-day high at $59.22 and the 20-day average near $59.11, where the 10-day and 20-day averages converge with a downtrend line [3] - This convergence creates a reinforced resistance pocket of heightened significance [3] Outlook - Crude oil's decline has brought it close to a critical 88.6% Fibonacci and multi-month low zone [4] - A daily close beneath $57.04–$57.21 could accelerate movement toward the broader $55–$57 support band, while respect for this area keeps the possibility of a sharp reversal alive [4] - Until a convincing push and hold above the $59.11–$59.22 confluence occurs, bears maintain full control [4]