分组1 - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was a closer call than it appeared, with some members expressing a preference for no change or a larger cut [1] - There is a debate within the Fed regarding the balance between inflation concerns and labor market conditions, with some members advocating for future cuts if inflation declines as expected [1] - The Fed acknowledges a K-shaped economy, where higher-income households are spending strongly while lower-income households are adjusting to inflation [1] 分组2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are present, with some members worried that the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target could be undermined [1] - The labor market is expected to continue softening but may stabilize next year with appropriate policy measures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as diminishing, but there are still concerns about entrenched inflation and its effects on the economy [1][2]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has annualized about 11% since 1970, but it is currently up over 23% per year for the last three years [2][3] - The consensus forecast for the S&P 500 entering 2026 is double-digit growth, driven primarily by earnings [4] Economic Conditions - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative with a new Fed chair likely not changing this stance [4] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to provide a tailwind, with expectations of significant tax refunds early in the year and a potential decrease in corporate taxes [5] Investment Strategy - The company’s hedged equity ETF, HEG, is designed to be a part of a diversified portfolio, providing market participation while managing volatility [11][12] - The product has annualized at about 11.7% over the last three years, which is lower than the market's performance but offers better downside protection during market downturns [16][17] Risk Management - The product aims to reduce portfolio volatility, traditionally exhibiting about 40% of the S&P's volatility [13][14] - There is a trade-off between downside protection and upside potential; while the product cushions against market declines, it may not fully participate in strong market gains [15][16] Future Outlook - The market conditions for 2026 are viewed as generally favorable, but there is an expectation of volatility [18][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of being analytical and prepared for unexpected risks that may arise [18]

Joining us now is Cityroup's head of US equity strategy, Scott Croner. Scott, you you guys have a pretty rosy view of of the year ahead. Does this sort of final action tell you anything.>> Hey Sarah, happy new year. I guess we can say I'm not the mystery broker, otherwise I wouldn't be on here. So that's going to be very interesting to watch.But look at what what I would say our view is that you know this this boom versus bubble discussion keeps coming up and we're in the boom phase and in our view which we ...

Core Insights - Titan Mining, a Canadian small-cap mining company, has experienced a remarkable share price increase of over 1,000% in 2025, driven by rising demand for graphite in the EV and AI sectors, as well as U.S. supply chain considerations [3][6]. - Graphite is becoming increasingly important in the lithium-ion battery supply chain, essential for energy storage and release, and is expected to see heightened demand as electric vehicle adoption grows [4][6]. Company Overview - Titan Mining is valued at approximately $250 million and is primarily a zinc miner, but is expanding into graphite projects with plans for a commercial-scale facility capable of producing up to 40,000 tonnes (over 88 million pounds) of graphite annually by 2028 [3][6]. - Despite not yet generating revenue from graphite, the company's strategic pivot is attracting investor interest amid speculation about reduced reliance on China for graphite supplies [6]. Industry Context - The mining sector has benefited from strong performance in 2025, particularly in gold, silver, and lithium, with graphite emerging as a key commodity due to its critical role in various applications, including EV batteries and consumer electronics [2][4]. - Graphite's unique properties, such as its electrical and thermal conductivity, low price point (approximately $328 to $363 per tonne for natural graphite), and chemical stability, make it a preferred material in the production of lithium-ion batteries [5][6].

Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector is facing challenges, with leaders expressing less optimism for 2026 compared to previous years [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - A survey indicates that 83% of respondents expect revenue improvements by the end of 2026, down from 88% last year [2] - Fewer respondents plan to increase spending, with 68% anticipating higher overall expenses next year [2] Group 2: Office Sector - Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to drop below 18% as tenant demand increases, with a notable flight to quality in Class A buildings [3] - Office construction is at its lowest level in over 30 years, indicating a significant slowdown in new developments [3] Group 3: Multifamily Sector - In the multifamily sector, rents are beginning to ease due to a record level of new supply, although it has led investment sales volume since 2015 [4] - The share of multifamily in total investment volume is expected to decrease as investors diversify into other sectors like office and data centers [4] Group 4: Data Centers - Data centers are highlighted as a bright spot in the commercial real estate landscape, with demand significantly outpacing supply [5] - Nine major global markets have fully pre-leased their new construction pipeline, indicating strong demand [5] - However, data centers face challenges related to financing, grid capacity, zoning, and local politics [6] Group 5: Prop Tech and AI Integration - The integration of AI in real estate operations is becoming increasingly significant, with many companies relying on AI to inform investment decisions [7][9] - The interest in property technology (Prop Tech) is surging, reflecting the growing importance of data in commercial real estate [8]

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd has released its 2025 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Report, showcasing its progress in key ESG priorities that support responsible growth and long-term value creation [1] Group 1: ESG Initiatives - Credo's ESG approach emphasizes strong oversight, accountability, and purpose-driven product innovation, with advancements in connectivity solutions aimed at reducing waste and enhancing energy efficiency in AI data centers [2] - The company has strengthened its Code of Business Conduct and Ethics and expanded health, safety, and professional growth programs for employees globally [2] - Through the Credo Cares initiative, the company has broadened partnerships that contribute to education, health, and local community needs, reflecting its commitment to integrity and continuous improvement [2] Group 2: Product Development - In 2025, Credo improved its product portfolio to help customers manage increasing operational demands in AI and hyperscale environments, focusing on high performance while reducing power consumption and waste [3] - The company is committed to developing low-power connectivity solutions that meet customer performance needs and align with its vision for sustainable connectivity [3] - Credo's innovations target the optical and electrical Ethernet applications market, including 100G, 200G, 400G, 800G, and the emerging 1.6T port markets, utilizing proprietary Serializer/Deserializer (SerDes) and Digital Signal Processor (DSP) technologies [5]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are encouraged to allocate more to private markets, which are expected to yield higher returns compared to traditional public markets, with a projected 15% return for a typical 60/40 portfolio, double the average from 2005 to 2024 [1] Private Market Insights - The focus is on private equity, private credit, and private real estate, with middle market private equity trading at approximately 11 times EBITDA compared to the Russell 2000's 19 times, indicating better growth potential at a lower cost [2] - Middle market private equity offers growth at a reasonable price, with revenue growth of 1.5 to 2.5 times nominal GDP, purchased at a 60% to 80% discount to the Russell 2000 [3] Market Volatility and Diversification - Middle market private equity is expected to compete with the S&P and NASDAQ over time while exhibiting less volatility and drawdown risk, providing true diversification [4] - The middle market is identified as a significant growth engine in the U.S. economy, comprising approximately 200,000 companies [5] Economic Growth and Investment Opportunities - The asset class is projected to experience gross revenue growth of 1.5 to 2.5 times nominal GDP growth, presenting vast investment opportunities [6] - Investing in sectors like HVAC, paving, and specialty foods can yield attractive growth rates of 10% to 15% at reasonable prices, contrasting with the high stakes of broader market trends tied to AI [7] Nominal GDP and Revenue Impact - Strong nominal GDP growth is anticipated, driven by robust real GDP growth and significant business fixed investment, particularly related to AI [11] - Nominal GDP is crucial for driving revenue across both large-cap listed companies and middle market private equity, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong nominal GDP growth without high inflation [12][13]

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced a remarkable growth of nearly 23,000% over the past decade, primarily driven by its focus on artificial intelligence (AI) [1][2] - The company is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory, potentially enabling investors to build substantial portfolios over the long term [2] Nvidia's Success Factors - Nvidia's chips are dominant in AI model training and are essential for real-world applications, despite competition from Alphabet's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) [3] - The company is expanding into various sectors such as healthcare, automotive, and telecommunications, developing AI platforms for specific industry applications like autonomous driving [4] - Nvidia's growth is supported by high-profile partnerships, including a recent deal with Groq, which is expected to enhance growth through a licensing agreement for inference technology [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Traditional competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are aggressively entering the AI chip market, while companies like Amazon are gaining popularity among retail investors [8] - Concerns exist regarding Nvidia's ability to maintain its market position against these competitors, particularly if alternative data center models gain traction [9] Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - Approximately 90% of Nvidia's second-quarter revenue is linked to AI infrastructure demand, indicating a strong reliance on this sector [10] - The company's innovative capabilities and strong market position may allow it to capitalize on emerging trends, with 97% of investors rating NVDA shares as a 'Buy' [10] - Nvidia's potential for long-term growth remains significant, contingent on its commitment to innovation as emphasized by CEO Jensen Huang [11]

Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ) has significantly increased its dividend by 9,300% over 24 years and currently offers a yield that is more than four times that of the average S&P 500 company, with an average annual dividend increase of 21% this century [2][3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, making it half as expensive as the broader market, raising questions about potential risks [2][3] Industry Overview - The oil and gas sector may be approaching a significant downturn, reminiscent of the 70% crash in oil prices a decade ago, which could impact Canadian Natural Resources despite its strong management and past resilience [3][4] - Factors that typically drive oil prices higher, such as geopolitical tensions and economic growth, have not prevented a 10% decline in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices over the past three months [5] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in oil production is leading to unprecedented efficiency, allowing companies to streamline operations and reduce costs, which may contribute to a supply shock similar to that experienced in 2014 and 2015 [6][8]

Core Insights - The discussion centers around the impact of AI on productivity and economic growth, with a focus on the expectations for 2026 and the implications for corporate earnings and stock prices [1][2][3] Group 1: AI and Productivity - AI is seen as a key driver of productivity, allowing for economic growth without significant inflationary pressures, which is favorable for central bankers [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that AI usage is likely increasing productivity, with GDP growth expectations for 2026 raised to 2.3% from 1.8% [2] - The Fed has also lowered its inflation expectations for next year to 2.4% from 2.6%, indicating a belief that productivity gains from AI can coexist with moderate inflation [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Stock Market - The estimated earnings per share for the S&P 500 in 2024 is projected to be $3922, which would set a new record [1][3] - Concerns about high valuations in the stock market are countered by the expectation of record corporate profits, suggesting that high stock prices may be justified [3][4] - Companies are focusing on increasing revenue per employee rather than hiring more staff, which could lead to significant outperformance for those that can effectively leverage AI [2][3] Group 3: Micron Technology - Micron has seen its stock price triple this year, driven by demand for its DRAM products, particularly for AI data centers [2][3] - The company has announced it will no longer produce memory chips for the consumer segment due to high demand from AI applications, indicating a shift in focus [2] - Micron's stock is considered vulnerable to price fluctuations based on memory chip prices, which could impact its future performance [3]