文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 5 月出口整体来看，考虑到前期抢出口以及 5 月上半月高关税的压力，全月同比 4.8% ，并不算低。按照 《出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法——4月进出口数据 点评》 分析框架， 5 月贸易数据反映出的或是： 3 ）后续从高频来看， 6 月整体出口量增速或边际回落，仍具韧性，中国对美国直接出口或有所反弹。此外，欧盟或是重要增量（其制造业 PMI 未来产出预 期指数持续回升，或指向工业生产的复苏）。 报告摘要 一、"β、α"二分法看 5 月出口 （一）需求（β）风险如何？ 事项 5 月，中国美元计价出口同比 4.8% ，基本符合彭博一致预期 5% ， 4 月同比 8.1% ；美元计价进口同比 -3.4% ，弱于彭博一致预期 -0.9% ， 4 月同比 -0.2% 。 1 ）对于β风险，通俗来说即美国进口崩盘的风险。目前从美国进口数据来看，还暂看不出风险的爆发，但是景气前瞻指标和高频都指向美国进口或面临持续 趋弱的压力。 2 ）对于α风险，即中国市场份额损失风 ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 5% and down from 8.1% in April[1] - Dollar-denominated imports in May fell by 3.4% year-on-year, weaker than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of -0.9% and down from -0.2% in April[1] Risk Analysis - The "β risk" indicates potential collapse in U.S. imports, with the latest data showing a significant drop in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI import index to 39.9%, suggesting accumulating downward risks[3] - The "α risk" reflects market share loss, with the "Pan-Asian Circle" (China + Mexico + ASEAN) share of U.S. imports declining from 39.7% in 2024 to 35.6% in the first four months of this year, a drop of approximately 4.1 percentage points[4] Future Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that June's overall export growth may marginally decline, but resilience remains, with direct exports to the U.S. showing signs of rebound[7] - Exports to the EU increased by 11.9% in May, up from 8.2% in April, indicating a recovery in demand from the Eurozone manufacturing sector[7] Import Insights - The import of "hard technology" maintained double-digit growth, with imports of automatic data processing equipment and parts rising by 47.5% year-on-year in May[8] - The overall import growth rate has slowed, with May's imports down 3.4% compared to April's -0.2%, indicating a potential weakening in demand[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in May rebounded to $103.2 billion, reflecting a recovery in trade dynamics despite the challenges faced in exports and imports[8]