文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 5 月出口整体来看，考虑到前期抢出口以及 5 月上半月高关税的压力，全月同比 4.8% ，并不算低。按照 《出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法——4月进出口数据 点评》 分析框架， 5 月贸易数据反映出的或是： 3 ）后续从高频来看， 6 月整体出口量增速或边际回落，仍具韧性，中国对美国直接出口或有所反弹。此外，欧盟或是重要增量（其制造业 PMI 未来产出预 期指数持续回升，或指向工业生产的复苏）。 报告摘要 一、"β、α"二分法看 5 月出口 （一）需求（β）风险如何？ 事项 5 月，中国美元计价出口同比 4.8% ，基本符合彭博一致预期 5% ， 4 月同比 8.1% ；美元计价进口同比 -3.4% ，弱于彭博一致预期 -0.9% ， 4 月同比 -0.2% 。 1 ）对于β风险，通俗来说即美国进口崩盘的风险。目前从美国进口数据来看，还暂看不出风险的爆发，但是景气前瞻指标和高频都指向美国进口或面临持续 趋弱的压力。 2 ）对于α风险，即中国市场份额损失风 ...

Core Viewpoints - In April, China's exports showed unexpected resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 1.9% and slightly above previous forecasts [2][4][42] - The rebound in imports, with a year-on-year change of -0.2%, also surpassed market expectations of -5.9%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics [2][4][65] Group 1: Export Resilience and Risks - The strong export performance in April is attributed to increased exports to non-U.S. regions, which offset the decline in direct exports to the U.S. [6][12] - The analysis distinguishes between two types of risks: beta (β) risk, which relates to U.S. tariff impacts on global demand, and alpha (α) risk, which pertains to the relative tariff rates imposed on China compared to other countries [4][7][18] - If β risk does not materialize, the focus should be on tracking the re-routing of exports to mitigate tariff impacts, as historical data suggests a significant portion of exports can be redirected [5][18] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The increase in imports in April was driven by processing trade, particularly a surge in integrated circuit imports, which contributed significantly to the overall import growth [10][38] - The impact of retaliatory tariffs may not have fully manifested in April's data, as goods shipped before the tariff implementation date were exempt from additional duties [10][68] - The overall import growth of -0.2% in April indicates a narrowing decline compared to March's -4.3%, suggesting a potential stabilization in trade flows [2][65] Group 3: Tracking U.S. Import Demand - Monitoring U.S. import demand is crucial, as any decline could signal broader global trade challenges, with historical data indicating that a drop in U.S. import growth could lead to proportional declines in global trade [4][20] - Key factors influencing U.S. import demand include tariff policies, price transmission effects, and consumer purchasing power, particularly the impact of inflation on U.S. households [20][24] - Projections indicate that U.S. import growth may decline significantly in the coming years, with estimates suggesting a drop to -9.6% by 2025 under current tariff scenarios [24][27] Group 4: Export Performance by Region and Product - Exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries have increased, reflecting the shifting dynamics in trade relationships due to tariffs [51][68] - The performance of consumer goods has been weaker, particularly for products facing high tariffs, while intermediate goods that are exempt from tariffs have shown stronger export growth [57][59] - The overall export landscape indicates a complex interplay of tariff impacts and regional trade adjustments, necessitating ongoing analysis of trade flows and market conditions [4][51]