在中国部分县、镇等区域，房子成了保值的资产。 在当地，人们习惯将潮安区称为潮安县，公开数据显示，该地于2013年撤县设区，潮安区下辖16个镇、 418个行政村和31个社区，区中心位于庵埠镇。 腾瑞·万象府正地处庵埠镇，"我们这里（的房价）从没下跌过。"腾瑞·万象府的销售对记者说，该楼盘 的开盘价在7000元/㎡以上，楼层位置越高、单价越贵，比如正南向中楼层的单价大约在8200元/㎡。这 个价格看上去虽然不高，但与周边对比，就显得昂贵。 安居客数据显示，作为一个县城，7000元的定价已经高于潮州市中心不少在售楼盘，比如湘桥区在售的 华侨城纯水岸参考价格为6800元/㎡，碧桂园华侨城·云溪天境参考价格为5500元/㎡。 而且，该楼盘为毛坯房，购买后需要业主全面装修，这也是一笔不小的费用。不过，销售表示，这里的 房子并不愁卖，"很多客户一个多月前就下了诚意金，这两天陆续来签约。"她说。 在房地产单边上行的"黄金时代"，曾有一句流传甚广的名言：小城市的房子只是房子，大城市的房子才 叫资产。 然而，过去几年，北上广深等一线城市房价承压，所谓的"资产"回归成了房子，人们对于购房的态度转 变为谨慎收缩。而在部分县、镇等区域 ...

上海从国庆回来之后，趋势确实不一般。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的底 现在敢说对房价的未来还抱有信心的，也就只有上海了。上海靠着2480万常住人口和大量刚需，在一个分化市场里面 走出了逆趋势。 从2025年10月开始，上海的成交首先就开始猛增，一直到现在也还能维持月超2万的成交量。我们都说量在价先，价格 不可能没有动静。 所以价格如图所示，虽然还在0以下，但确实有所止跌且目前两三个月已经呈现出稳定的趋势，甚至略微有点回升。 所以大家最近这几个月铺天盖地看到的都是上海的房子有多扛跌，看多党大为振奋，各路诸侯纷纷说上海2026年未来 可期。 这里我也想纠正一个看法，所谓的我们很多人预期的2027年，其实也只是个"大概"，这个大概的意思是到了那个时 候，大趋势是见底的。 但其实在大趋势形成之前，也自然会有部分城市、地段、房子能够稳住，成为先融化的那块冰。目前来看，上海应该 就是第一个。 但是这波行情并没有守住，因为后续基本面没有改善。一个是没有趁机再出强刺激性的政策让热度能延续，一个是M1 和M2的情况一般，没有很强势的就业和经济，房价还是无根的状态。 还有三周过年，前两周各个部门密集发布了非常多的小政策。在我看来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that by Q4 2025, housing prices will have returned to 2016 levels, particularly in the more market-oriented second-hand housing market, with variations across different regions [1] - Homeowners who purchased properties before 2016 still have a safety cushion, as their perceived losses are more about "less profit" compared to peak market conditions, while those who bought after 2016 may be facing "real losses" [1] - The introduction of new housing price limits in Shanghai in 2016 led to an eight-year phenomenon of price discrepancies between new and second-hand homes, which has created financial burdens for some homeowners [1] Group 2 - In 2016, the average sales price of new residential properties in Shanghai was 25,910 yuan per square meter, with the average price for marketable residential properties reaching 38,369 yuan per square meter, an 18.85% increase from 2015 [3] - Significant price gradients were observed: properties within the inner ring averaged 87,426 yuan per square meter, while those in the outer ring averaged only 18,127 yuan per square meter, indicating a clear distinction in pricing across different areas [3] - The Huangpu District had the highest average transaction price at 104,589 yuan per square meter, while suburban areas like Jinshan had much lower prices, highlighting the stark contrast in property values across the city [3] Group 3 - Current property prices in Shanghai's core areas, such as Huangpu and central districts like Changning and Jing'an, can still be found at prices reflective of 2016 levels, indicating potential opportunities for buyers [4] - The experience of buyers is influenced by their entry timing into the market, including purchase prices, mortgage payments, and holding costs, leading to distinctions between "real losses" and "less profit" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market has shown a significant divergence in property price trends, with high-end properties maintaining value while lower-end properties have experienced declines, reflecting the impact of market regulations and location on property values [1][13][16]. Group 1: Market Trends - The period from 2019 to 2020 is identified as a peak for the Shanghai real estate market, with a notable increase in sales volume and prices [1]. - In 2021, despite a record high in industry scale, the market began to decline due to tightening regulatory policies, particularly in the second half of the year [1][15]. - The average price increase for the sample projects from 2019-2020 was only 0.41%, with significant variations among different projects [5][6]. Group 2: Price Analysis - Properties priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter have generally not seen declines, while those below 50,000 yuan per square meter are the most affected by price drops [9][12]. - The highest price increases were concentrated in the Xuhui and Pudong areas, while the largest declines were observed in suburban districts such as Jinshan, Minhang, and Baoshan [2][12]. - The average price increase for properties priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter was 18%, while those below 50,000 yuan per square meter experienced an average decline of 9.47% [12][16]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The "price limit" and "price inversion" policies have significantly influenced the market dynamics, leading to a surge in demand for new properties, especially in core areas [14][15]. - The introduction of public lottery systems for property purchases has further complicated the market, creating a competitive environment for buyers [15]. - As the five-year holding period for certain properties approaches its end in 2026, these properties will likely enter the secondary market, potentially increasing competition and affecting prices [15][17].