近些年，国内房地产市场进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是像郑州、石家庄等二三线城市房价出现下跌。之后，上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也加入到下跌 的队伍之中。全国平均房价跌幅已经超过了30%。而在进入到2026年之后，各地房价仍然延续之前调整的趋势。数据显示：1月份全国百城二手住宅均价为 12905元/平方米，环比下跌0.85%，同比下跌8.67%。 第一，要看当前房价的趋势 房子的租售之比，也是决定你现在是否卖掉房子的关键参考指标。举个例子，上海一套二手房的市价是700万，每个月的租金是7500元，一年租金回报率要 低于银行存款利率。显然，在高房价的背景之下，房子的租售比是很低的。也就是说，现在的房子并不具备投资价值，就连投资性购房需求都不会进来。而 只有等到房子的投资回报率达到3-4%以上，投资购房需求才有可能入市。 现在卖掉房子，是"聪明"还是"蠢"？内行人一语道破，终于懂了。就是你只要看三大指标，它们分别是：当前房价的大趋势、要看房价与收入之比，以及看 房子的租售比。从目前情况来看，现在房价正处于下行趋势之中，房价收入之比处于历史高位，房子的租售比也较低。这就显示出，现在卖掉房子是"聪 明"之举，而绝非"愚蠢 ...

上海从国庆回来之后，趋势确实不一般。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的底 现在敢说对房价的未来还抱有信心的，也就只有上海了。上海靠着2480万常住人口和大量刚需，在一个分化市场里面 走出了逆趋势。 从2025年10月开始，上海的成交首先就开始猛增，一直到现在也还能维持月超2万的成交量。我们都说量在价先，价格 不可能没有动静。 所以价格如图所示，虽然还在0以下，但确实有所止跌且目前两三个月已经呈现出稳定的趋势，甚至略微有点回升。 所以大家最近这几个月铺天盖地看到的都是上海的房子有多扛跌，看多党大为振奋，各路诸侯纷纷说上海2026年未来 可期。 这里我也想纠正一个看法，所谓的我们很多人预期的2027年，其实也只是个"大概"，这个大概的意思是到了那个时 候，大趋势是见底的。 但其实在大趋势形成之前，也自然会有部分城市、地段、房子能够稳住，成为先融化的那块冰。目前来看，上海应该 就是第一个。 但是这波行情并没有守住，因为后续基本面没有改善。一个是没有趁机再出强刺激性的政策让热度能延续，一个是M1 和M2的情况一般，没有很强势的就业和经济，房价还是无根的状态。 还有三周过年，前两周各个部门密集发布了非常多的小政策。在我看来 ...

13:30-13:35 开场致辞 公司领导 国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛 2026年1月23日-上海 陆家嘴 · 中国金融信息中心16楼国泰海通旗舰店 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 13:35-14:20 践行使命担当,服务居民财富管理 徐海宁-上海秩汇科技有限公司创始人 * 本次活动人数有限,请提前报名。 * 参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 或国泰海通非银金融、银行、地产分析师 研究运营组制作 14:20-15:05 居民财富管理新趋势 金 总-浦发银行财富管理部 15:05-15:50 重点70城房价趋势和2026年研判 李彦国-冰山指数创始人 15:50-16:00 2026房价矛在哪里? 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制 造组长、 ...

国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛 2026年1月23日-上海 陆家嘴 · 中国金融信息中心16楼国泰海通旗舰店 13:30-13:35 开场致辞 公司领导 13:35-14:20 践行使命担当,服务居民财富管理 徐海宁-上海秩汇科技有限公司创始人 刘欣琦-国泰海通研究所副所长、金融组长、 非银金融首席分析师 * 本次活动人数有限,请提前报名。 * 参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 或国泰海通非银金融、银行、地产分析师 研究运营组制作 14:20-15:05 居民财富管理新趋势 金 总-浦发银行财富管理部 15:05-15:50 重点70城房价趋势和2026年研判 李彦国-冰山指数创始人 15:50-16:00 2026房价矛在哪里? 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制 造组长、房地产首席分析师、中小市值与创新 股权联席首席分析师 16:00-16:10 2026年银行经营趋势展望 马婷婷-国泰海通研究所银行首席分析师 16:10-16:20 重视配置的力量,从机构到居民 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设 ...

Group 1 - The event is a forum organized by Guotai Junan focusing on non-bank financial services, banking, and real estate, scheduled for January 23, 2026, in Shanghai [1] - Key speakers include industry leaders and analysts discussing topics such as wealth management trends and housing price changes in major cities [2][3] - The forum aims to address the evolving landscape of wealth management and the implications for both institutions and individual investors [3] Group 2 - The agenda includes discussions on recent trends in wealth management, housing price fluctuations in 70 key cities, and future banking operational trends [3] - Specific sessions will cover the challenges and opportunities in the real estate market, as well as the importance of asset allocation for residents [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to exhibit four major trends, indicating a shift from the previous notion that "any property will appreciate" to a more selective approach in property investment [1][8]. Trend Analysis - **Urban Disparity**: There will be an increasing gap in property values between high-demand cities and those with declining populations. Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu are expected to see stable or slightly rising prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to experience price declines. For instance, new home prices in Shanghai's core areas rose by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025, while properties in less populated areas may take years to sell due to oversupply [1][3]. - **Shift to Improved Housing**: The demand for larger, more comfortable homes is rising, with properties sized between 120-144 square meters becoming increasingly popular. In the first five months of 2025, these larger units accounted for 30% of transactions in 30 major cities. Additionally, buyers are prioritizing properties that can be delivered on time, leading to a rise in the sales of completed homes, which reached 35.6% in 2025, up by 4.8 percentage points [3][5]. - **Increase in Affordable Housing**: By 2026, a dual system of affordable and market-rate housing is expected to be more established, with 60% of families potentially able to access affordable housing options. This will alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers, as affordable housing can be priced at 20% lower than market-rate homes in the same area [5][7]. - **Supportive Policies**: The government is likely to continue implementing supportive policies to stimulate reasonable housing demand, including potential interest rate cuts and increased availability of housing subsidies. This could lead to lower monthly mortgage payments for buyers, making homeownership more accessible [5][7]. Recommendations for Buyers - Focus on acquiring core assets in major cities rather than spreading investments across multiple lower-tier properties, as evidenced by a 20% increase in second-hand home transactions in major cities in early 2025 [7]. - Pay attention to the benefits of old community renovations, as the government has allocated 33.2 billion yuan for such projects, which could enhance property values in renovated areas [7]. - First-time buyers should act promptly if suitable properties arise, especially those eligible for affordable housing, while those looking to upgrade should compare options during favorable policy conditions [7]. - Abandon speculative investment strategies, as the market is shifting towards a "housing for living" approach rather than for profit [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with five major trends emerging that will affect buying and selling decisions, as well as overall market stability [1] Group 1: Trends in Home Buying - Trend 1: The cost of buying a home will decrease, with policies aimed at making home purchases more affordable and reducing financial pressure on buyers. This includes potential easing of restrictions in major cities and lower mortgage rates [3] - Trend 2: Not all properties will appreciate; only homes in "good cities" and with desirable characteristics will retain value. Cities with population inflow and strong industries will support housing demand, while weaker markets may see continued price declines [4] - Trend 3: The second-hand housing market will stabilize, moving away from panic selling. As prices reach reasonable levels, buyers will enter the market, leading to a more rational pricing environment [6] Group 2: Changes in Developer Behavior - Trend 4: Demand for improved housing will rise, prompting developers to focus on quality rather than quantity. The shift towards better living conditions will lead to enhanced property features and services [7][8] - Trend 5: The real estate industry will transition from a high-debt, high-turnover model to a more sustainable approach. Developers will focus on reducing inventory and may convert unsold properties into affordable housing options, leading to a healthier market [9][11]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the housing price changes in 70 large and medium-sized cities for August 2025, indicating a notable decline in high-quality assets [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics is relatively abstract, making it difficult to discern market trends directly [1] - The analysis includes a transformation of some data into charts to facilitate a more intuitive understanding of market trends [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about future housing prices being as low as "scallions" has come true, with average national housing prices now down over 30% [1][3] - Cities like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang have seen significant price declines, followed by major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - Prices in lower-tier cities have dropped to levels around 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per square meter, aligning with Ma's prediction [3] Group 2: Investment Risks - Investment risks are rising across various sectors, including real estate, stocks, funds, and bank products, as bank deposit rates hit historical lows [4][8] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be around 140,000 yuan, with public funds experiencing average losses of 20-30% [8] - The risk associated with bank wealth management products is increasing due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [8] Group 3: Entrepreneurship Challenges - Many individuals are withdrawing savings to invest in entrepreneurship, but the success rate is extremely low, described as "nine deaths and one life" [10] - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational spending post-pandemic, leading to a long-term oversupply in the market [12] - High rental costs for commercial spaces and intense competition from established companies further diminish the chances of entrepreneurial success [14]