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接下来几年,如何保住我们手里的钱?
大胡子说房· 2025-06-17 11:10
Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class decline [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's asset bubble burst in the early 1990s, all leading to significant middle-class hardships [1][2][3]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and industry corrections [2][3]. - The middle class is particularly vulnerable during these transitions, facing stagnant incomes and declining asset values while still carrying debt [3][4]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - The current low-growth environment exacerbates wealth inequality, as many individuals are either in debt or chasing high-risk investments without stable returns [4][5]. - Successful individuals during Japan's "lost 30 years" managed to increase their wealth through investments in stable, high-dividend stocks, which outperformed the market and inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for Wealth Preservation - To navigate the impending wealth divide, individuals should focus on saving and investing in stable assets that can provide consistent returns, similar to Japan's high-yield stocks [5].
接下来几年,如何保住我们手里的钱?
大胡子说房· 2025-06-12 11:53
Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class impoverishment [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, all of which saw significant middle-class challenges [1][2]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and industry corrections [2][3]. - The middle class is particularly vulnerable during these transitions, facing stagnant incomes and declining asset values while still carrying debt [3]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - The current low-growth environment exacerbates wealth inequality, as many individuals are either in debt or losing money on risky investments [4]. - However, certain stable industries and high-dividend stocks can provide consistent returns, even in adverse economic conditions, as evidenced by Japan's high-yield stocks during its "lost 30 years" [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Middle Class - To navigate the impending wealth divide, individuals should focus on preserving wealth rather than engaging in reckless spending or investment [5]. - It is advised to allocate funds into stable, income-generating assets, similar to Japan's high-yield stocks, to ensure financial security in the coming years [5].
银行和保险大佬的讲话
表舅是养基大户· 2025-03-27 13:30
昨晚发了招行的年报解读,有小伙伴问,马上要入职小招了,现在进银行,算不算是49年入国军。 我说这怎么可能呢,现在能找到份工作就不错了,这都是有依据的,看到银行招聘网上,贴出来的 四大行的春招计划 : 农行,25年春招4500人,比去年同期少1万人; 工行,25年春招4500人,比去年少4300人; 中行,25年春招4700人,比去年少1000人; 建行,25年春招2300人,比去年少1400人。 四大行今年合计春招1.6万人,比去年同期少招近1.7万人,直接砍半了,其中农行砍的比较多,因为网点多,2.3万个网点,是工行和建行的1.5 倍,是中行的2倍多,过往一线网点的招聘基数比较大,现在业务难做,师傅都吃不饱饭了,更不可能招新员工进来当徒弟了。 所以,你想进国军,国军不一定有编制呢。 何况,我们分析了半天,最核心的逻辑还是,在基本面的下行期, 从比烂的角度来看,银行是不差的 ,毕竟24年全年,全国规上工业企业,净 利润同比下降了3.3%,而银行不管是靠拨备,还是靠业绩,都至少保持了净利润的正增长; 而且,除了招行这种pb在1以上的银行外,大部分银行的上涨,核心逻辑依然是估值的修复,尤其是本来两块系统性风险,地 ...