Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the potential of Zhongtian Rocket (003009) as a leading player in the small solid rocket industry, driven by increasing demand for rain enhancement and hail prevention rockets, supported by government policies and a growing domestic market [4] - Silver Dragon Co., Ltd. (603969) is recommended due to its increasing revenue from high value-added products, with a projected revenue growth of 21% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential [6] Group 2: Financial Projections - For Zhongtian Rocket, the expected revenue for 2025-2027 is 1,033.08 million, 1,309.47 million, and 1,662.34 million CNY, with net profit projections of 75.54 million, 156.05 million, and 218.25 million CNY, reflecting significant growth rates [4] - Silver Dragon's projected revenue for the same period is 3.8 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.6 billion CNY, with net profits expected to reach 370 million, 600 million, and 800 million CNY, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for small unmanned precision weapons is increasing due to global instability, which is expected to drive the performance of Zhongtian Rocket [4] - Silver Dragon is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for pre-stressed materials, with a focus on expanding its international business, particularly in Russia [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-bank financial sector is highlighted as having underperformed, presenting a potential opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios [7] - The strategy report suggests a rotation into three ETFs, emphasizing the importance of mid-cap indices and the ChiNext index, which are expected to outperform in the current market environment [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of macroeconomic conditions on style allocation, utilizing three mainstream ETFs for monthly rotation trading, which has consistently outperformed benchmarks in backtesting [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts almost certain, and expectations of declining export growth, the financial environment is expected to improve while economic momentum slows, indicating a preference for the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [1] Group 1: Merrill Lynch Clock Method - The traditional Merrill Lynch clock divides the economic cycle into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with the recovery phase favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [2] - A simulated portfolio based on the Merrill Lynch clock from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 379.9%, with an annualized return of 14.4% and an information ratio of 0.44 [2][24] - For Q4, the combination of marginal economic slowdown and low prices is likely to continue, prioritizing the ChiNext Index and CSI 2000 [2] Group 2: Pring Cycle Method - The Pring cycle categorizes the economic cycle into six stages, with the recovery early stage favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [3] - A simulated portfolio based on the Pring cycle from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 282.4%, with an annualized return of 12.2% and an information ratio of 0.27 [3][43] - In Q4, leading indicators are expected to continue rising, while synchronous indicators may fluctuate, suggesting a preference for the CSI 2000 [3] Group 3: Macro-Friendly Scoring Method - The macro-friendly scoring method combines the Merrill Lynch cycle, inventory cycle, and financial cycle to create a unique indicator that provides clearer insights into the economic cycle state [4] - The report anticipates that the three cycles will resonate positively in the next six months, favoring growth styles [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Given the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the anticipated decline in export growth, the report suggests that the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index have high allocation value [5]