证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程月报 成长红利均衡配置， 关注大盘补涨机会 ——9月风格轮动观点 报告日期：2025年8月27日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 0 1 多 维 量 化 轮 动 模 型 ： 成 长 红 利 均 衡 配 置 1.1 本月观点：成长红利均衡配置 | 业绩统计 | 创业板指 | 中证红利全收益 | 基准:等权配置 | 轮动策略 | 轮动策略/基准 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 累计收益 | -1.16% | 98.21% | 48.30% | 348.20% | 199.36% | | 年化收益 | -0.12% | 7.57% | 4.29% | 17.35% | 12.41% | | 最大回撤 | 57.05% | 27.08% | 35.22% | 27.08% | 13.16% | | 年化波动率 | 28.32% | 17.60% | 20.76% | 23.14% | 11.00% | | 年化sharpe | 0.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance differences among various index funds, particularly focusing on the volatility and returns of large-cap and small-cap indices over the past decade, highlighting the challenges in choosing the best investment strategy among them [3][5][24]. Performance Analysis of Different Indices - Historical data shows significant performance disparities among indices of different sizes over the past ten years, with the 中证2000 exhibiting the highest volatility and returns during bullish phases, while the 沪深300 remains relatively stable [5][7]. - The 中证全指 demonstrates a balanced performance, generally staying within a moderate range with fewer extreme fluctuations compared to other indices [5][7]. Bull Market Performance - In 2014, all five indices saw substantial gains, with 沪深300 and 中证2000 both around 50%, while 中证全指, 中证500, and 中证1000 had returns between 30%-45% [10]. - The year 2015 marked extreme differentiation, with 中证2000 soaring over 100%, while 沪深300 showed minimal growth [11]. - In 2019, all indices rose moderately, with gains concentrated in the 20%-35% range, favoring 沪深300 and 中证全指 slightly [12]. - The year 2020 saw a general tightening of gains, with most indices recording increases between 10%-20%, and 沪深300 slightly outperforming small-cap indices [13]. Bear Market Performance - During bear markets, indices generally experienced significant declines, with the depth of the drop closely related to market capitalization structure [17]. - In 2016, the 中证全指 and 沪深300 fell by 5%-8%, while 中证500 and 中证1000 dropped by 10%-15%, and 中证2000 remained relatively stable [17]. - The year 2018 witnessed a severe downturn, with 中证1000 and 中证2000 suffering losses of nearly 40% and over 35%, respectively, while large-cap indices also faced declines exceeding 25% [18]. - In 2022, all indices recorded declines in the 15%-25% range, with small-cap indices and 中证全指 experiencing slightly larger drops, while 沪深300 fared better [19]. - In 2023, most indices recorded slight declines or remained flat, with only 中证2000 achieving approximately 2% positive returns, indicating that small-cap indices often bear greater adjustment pressure in bear markets [20]. Summary of Returns and Volatility - 中证2000 has the highest cumulative return at nearly 197% with an annualized return of 10.19% and a volatility of 28.26%, indicating high elasticity and risk [23]. - 中证全指 and 沪深300 show long-term returns of 84.46% and 79.11%, respectively, with annualized returns in the 5%-6% range and lower volatility, reflecting stability and balanced returns [23]. - 中证500 and 中证1000 fall in between, with cumulative returns of 67.92% and 55.63%, annualized returns slightly below 5%, and volatility ranging from 21%-27% [23]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article suggests that small-cap indices perform better during favorable market conditions but come with higher volatility and drawdown risks, while large-cap and broad-based indices offer more stable returns [24]. - A diversified investment approach, such as balancing large-cap and small-cap allocations and integrating growth and value styles, is recommended to enhance adaptability across different market conditions [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market in July, highlighting that A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks due to various factors, including government policies and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, major Chinese stock indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Index saw increases of +4.75%, +3.54%, and +2.91% respectively, indicating a stronger performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4]. - The article notes that small-cap stocks in A-shares showed stronger performance than large-cap stocks during this period [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing A-share Performance - The central government's "anti-involution" supply-side reform measures announced on July 1 are believed to have positively impacted investor sentiment, particularly in cyclical industries that are expected to recover [5]. - The high market activity and significant gains in individual stocks have improved risk appetite among investors, leading to increased market participation [5]. Group 3: Bull Market Dynamics - The article explores how bull markets form, emphasizing that economic improvement is not a prerequisite for a bull market; rather, market valuations and investor sentiment play crucial roles [8][14]. - Historical data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) can reflect macroeconomic conditions, and past bull markets have occurred even during periods of negative PPI growth [9]. Group 4: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - The article identifies common reasons why many investors fail to profit during bull markets, including selling stocks during market lows out of fear and missing out on subsequent gains [15][16]. - It highlights the psychological barriers and decision-making challenges investors face, such as fear of missing out and the difficulty in identifying the right stocks to buy [17][18]. Group 5: Current Market Strategy - The article suggests that the current market may be characterized as a structural bull market, with potential for cyclical recovery in certain sectors due to government policies [21]. - It advises investors to avoid perfectionism in their investment strategies and to focus on achieving reasonable returns rather than waiting for the perfect entry point [22].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3380.08 points, down 0.04% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 10074.27 points, up 0.26% [1] - The ChiNext Index opened at 2024.70 points, up 0.35% [1] - The CSI 300 opened at 3862.39 points, up 0.12% [1] - The STAR 50 opened at 963.79 points, up 0.24% [1] - The CSI 500 opened at 5683.46 points, up 0.16% [1] - The CSI 1000 opened at 6082.74 points, up 0.07% [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a trading volume of 4.5 billion with a year-to-date increase of 0.84% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index had a trading volume of 7.6 billion with a year-to-date decrease of 3.27% [2] - The ChiNext Index had a trading volume of 3.4 billion with a year-to-date decrease of 5.46% [2] - The CSI 300 had a trading volume of 1.6 billion with a year-to-date decrease of 1.84% [2] - The CSI 500 had a trading volume of 0.91 billion with a year-to-date decrease of 0.74% [2] - The CSI 1000 had a trading volume of 2.7 billion with a year-to-date increase of 2.10% [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a strong recovery in small-cap stocks, with over 90% of small-cap stocks rising since April 8, 2023 [1][3] - The Wande Micro-cap Index and North Exchange 50 have outperformed large-cap indices, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 35.57% from April 8 to May 15 [3] - The performance of small-cap themed equity products has been robust, with all relevant products showing positive returns during the same period [4] Group 2: Fund Activity - There has been a significant increase in institutional interest in small-cap stocks, with the number of small-cap stocks under institutional research rising from 300 to 1224 in one month [6] - Some small-cap themed funds have implemented large subscription limits due to rapid inflows, such as the CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy Fund, which announced a suspension of large subscriptions over 2 million yuan [5] - The top-performing funds related to the North Exchange 50 have seen returns exceeding 30%, with many small-cap funds turning from losses to gains this year [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of risk preference recovery, with expectations of limited downside due to policy support and economic pressures [2] - Analysts suggest that the small-cap stock sector may face profit-taking risks if the upward trend continues, potentially leading to a short-term correction [6] - Historical data indicates that April often serves as a turning point for small-cap stocks, with opportunities emerging after adjustments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive review of the performance of major A-share indices for the years 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting trends in return on equity (ROE) and the overall economic conditions reflected by these indices [3][4][23]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall market benchmark, the Wind All A Index, shows a decline in ROE to 7.92% in 2024, a decrease of 6.34% year-on-year, indicating a continuing downward trend [7]. - In Q1 2025, the index ROE further decreased from 2.21% in Q1 2024 to 2.19%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous years [7]. Group 2: Major Indices - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, representing the largest 50 companies in the Shanghai market, recorded a ROE of 10.59% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.14% from 2023, but saw a decline in Q1 2025 to 2.60% [8]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, which includes the largest 100 companies in the Shenzhen market, experienced a significant drop in ROE to 10.59% in 2024, a decrease of 14.32% from the previous year, but rebounded to 3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 15.88% increase [9][10]. Group 3: A-Series Indices - The CSI A50 Index, a key large-cap index, had a ROE of 11.62% in 2024, with a slight decline to 2.96% in Q1 2025, indicating relative stability [12]. - The CSI A100 Index showed a ROE of 10.48% in 2024, down 7.92% from 2023, but the decline rate slowed in Q1 2025 to 2.62% [12]. - The CSI A500 Index, representing a broader market, had a ROE of 9.82% in 2024, with a further decline to 2.51% in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges for mid-sized companies [12]. Group 4: Mid and Small Cap Indices - The CSI 300 Index, a core broad-based index, reported a ROE of 10.09% in 2024, down 1.37% year-on-year, with a further decline to 2.58% in Q1 2025, indicating stabilization among large enterprises [15]. - The CSI 500 Index, representing mid-cap companies, saw a significant drop in ROE to 6.02% in 2024, down 17.34%, but showed signs of recovery with a 5.29% increase in Q1 2025 [15]. - The CSI 1000 Index, which tracks small-cap companies, had a ROE of 4.88% in 2024, down 7.04%, but improved to 1.59% in Q1 2025, suggesting a potential bottoming out [16]. Group 5: Innovation and Growth Indices - The ChiNext Index, representing innovative enterprises, had a ROE of 12.48% in 2024, down from previous years, but began to recover in Q1 2025 with a ROE increase [19]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index, which tracks technology-focused companies, reported a ROE of only 4.34% in 2024, a significant decline of 43.42%, and further dropped to 0.30% in Q1 2025, indicating severe challenges in the tech sector [21][22]. Group 6: Summary - Overall, 2024 was a challenging year for A-share indices, with a general decline in ROE across major indices, particularly in the CSI 2000, Sci-Tech 50, and ChiNext 200, which experienced the steepest declines [23]. - However, signs of recovery were noted in early 2025, particularly among growth-oriented indices like the ChiNext and Shenzhen 100, suggesting a potential turnaround for growth companies [23].

Group 1 - Macro Holdings (002379.SZ) reported its Q1 2025 results, with 20 institutional investors holding a total of 357 million shares, representing 31.40% of the company's total equity [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 31.31% of the shares, a decrease of 1.62 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, one fund, Southern CSI 2000 ETF, increased its holdings, while one fund, E Fund CSI 2000 ETF, decreased its holdings [2] - A total of 12 new public funds disclosed their holdings this period, including Ruiyuan Balanced Value Mixed A and CITIC Securities Excellent Growth A [2] - One foreign fund, Swiss Capital Bank, increased its holdings, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 0.88% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhuoyue Technology (002369.SZ) has disclosed its 2024 annual report, highlighting the current institutional investor holdings and changes in foreign investment [1][2] - As of April 21, 2025, a total of 15 institutional investors hold shares in Zhuoyue Technology, with a combined holding of 10.1381 million shares, representing 1.79% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include BARCLAYS BANK PLC, Goldman Sachs International - proprietary funds, and Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC, with their combined holding also at 1.79% [1] Group 2 - In terms of foreign investment, there has been a slight increase in holdings from BARCLAYS BANK PLC, which is the only foreign fund to increase its stake this period [2] - Three new foreign institutions have disclosed their holdings, including Goldman Sachs International - proprietary funds, Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC, and China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Asset Management Co., Ltd. - CICCFT10(R) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Simai Media (002712.SZ) has disclosed its 2024 annual report, highlighting significant institutional investor holdings and changes in share ownership [1] - As of April 18, 2025, a total of 16 institutional investors hold shares in Simai Media, with a combined holding of 182 million shares, representing 33.44% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors account for a combined holding ratio of 33.43%, which has decreased by 0.83 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 12 new public funds have been disclosed this period compared to the previous quarter, including several ETFs and mixed funds [1] - Regarding foreign investment, two new foreign institutions have disclosed holdings this period, namely MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC. and UBS AG [2] - The previous quarter saw the absence of disclosures from Goldman Sachs International and BARCLAYS BANK PLC [2]

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Risk Premium Model - **Model Name**: Risk Premium Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model measures the risk premium of various broad-based indices relative to the risk-free rate, using the yield of the 10-year government bond as a reference. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the risk premium for each index as the difference between the index's return and the 10-year government bond yield. - Observe the mean reversion phenomenon of the risk premium. - Analyze the volatility of the risk premium over time. - Formula: $$ \text{Risk Premium} = \text{Index Return} - \text{10-year Government Bond Yield} $$ - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the relative investment value and deviation of the indices from the risk-free rate, showing clear mean reversion characteristics.[14][15][16] Model 2: PE-TTM Model - **Model Name**: PE-TTM Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Price-to-Earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months (PE-TTM) as a valuation reference to assess the investment value of various indices. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the PE-TTM for each index. - Compare the current PE-TTM with historical percentiles to determine the valuation level. - Observe the trend and volatility of the PE-TTM over time. - Formula: $$ \text{PE-TTM} = \frac{\text{Current Price}}{\text{Earnings per Share (TTM)}} $$ - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear indication of the valuation level of the indices, helping to identify overvalued or undervalued conditions.[20][21][22] Model Backtesting Results Risk Premium Model - **Current Risk Premium**: - **Shanghai 50**: -0.17% - **CSI 300**: -0.41% - **CSI 500**: -0.78% - **CSI 1000**: -1.53% - **CSI 2000**: -1.85% - **CSI All Share**: -0.89% - **ChiNext**: -1.16% - **1-Year Percentile**: - **Shanghai 50**: 43.25% - **CSI 300**: 34.92% - **CSI 500**: 27.78% - **CSI 1000**: 15.48% - **CSI 2000**: 13.89% - **CSI All Share**: 19.44% - **ChiNext**: 24.21% - **5-Year Percentile**: - **Shanghai 50**: 44.37% - **CSI 300**: 35.08% - **CSI 500**: 22.70% - **CSI 1000**: 12.94% - **CSI 2000**: 9.76% - **CSI All Share**: 18.33% - **ChiNext**: 21.75%[16] PE-TTM Model - **Current PE-TTM**: - **Shanghai 50**: 10.86 - **CSI 300**: 12.60 - **CSI 500**: 28.92 - **CSI 1000**: 39.13 - **CSI 2000**: 96.99 - **CSI All Share**: 18.46 - **ChiNext**: 33.18 - **1-Year Historical Percentile**: - **Shanghai 50**: 76.45% - **CSI 300**: 69.83% - **CSI 500**: 96.28% - **CSI 1000**: 79.34% - **CSI 2000**: 97.93% - **CSI All Share**: 86.78% - **ChiNext**: 68.60% - **5-Year Historical Percentile**: - **Shanghai 50**: 64.96% - **CSI 300**: 58.43% - **CSI 500**: 86.28% - **CSI 1000**: 73.39% - **CSI 2000**: 51.82% - **CSI All Share**: 74.38% - **ChiNext**: 30.99%[22]