文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第409期直播回放】 有朋友问，市场风格轮动快，这轮行情中，哪些品种领涨？ 哪些品种到过高估？ 如果没到高估，基金还有收益吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1010 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 这轮行情，和2013-2017年比较相似 2013年，A股基本面比较低迷，上市公司盈利下降。 同时利率也比较高，压制了市场表现。 A股在2012-2014年，断断续续的出现了较长时间的5点几星。 2014年，为了刺激经济，开启了大幅降息。 较低估值、加上资金面宽松，让A股开始迅速上涨。 （1）2014年下半年，先是证券大幅上涨，拉开牛市序幕。 （2）2015年上半年，小盘股、成长风格接力，大幅上涨，并在2015年6月达到泡沫估值。 随后小盘、成长风格泡沫破裂，出现腰斩下跌。 （3）2016-2017年，随着基本面复苏，大盘价值股、消费股出现上涨。 到2017年底，大盘价值、消费超过2015年最高位，创下当时的历史新高。 这轮行情跟2013 ...

...... 第一条建议，送外卖的电瓶车先别扔。 今天A股和港股的科技板块，都迎来了大跌，如果要找原因的话，宏观和行业层面，都有可以说道说道的。 宏观层面，因为近期欧洲（法国）和小日子的政坛震荡，导致美元指数"被动"走强，昨晚， 自8月1日以来，美元指数首次向上突破99 ，这导致 降息预期+弱美元的宏观假设，有所变化，对非美市场不是什么好事情，今天恒生指数跌了1.7%，而日经225也跌超1%，是其9月1日以来，首次 跌超1个点。 行业层面的利空，其实主要也和宏观有关，11月10日，也就是1个月后，中美要再次商贸会谈，因此，大家近期也能看到，两边都在加紧搞事 情，收集筹码，昨晚提到的咱们对 锂电 的出口管制，就导致今天锂电板块领跌A股和港股。 另外，昨天提到的，静态市盈率超300倍后，股票融资时的折算率归零的规定，加剧了部分杠杆资金的恐慌情绪（因为下跌导致市盈率变化，今 晚，部分券商又对部分个股采取了上调折算率的操作，如果情绪配合，可能导致反弹回来），导致今天在韩国的两家芯片龙头企业涨的飞起的同 时，A股和H股 芯片 却继续大暴跌。 而且，有时候，悲观情绪，会带来更多的悲观情绪，比如，今天 机器人 板块的两则利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing growth ("small stocks") and stability ("large stocks") in investment strategies to navigate through different market cycles effectively [5][20]. Group 1: Historical Perspective on Investment Strategies - The distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" is not about superiority; both serve as tools in an investment portfolio, with their effectiveness varying by market conditions [6][7]. - Historical data shows that while growth stocks may outperform during bull markets, stable dividend-paying stocks can provide consistent returns over the long term, mitigating risks during downturns [11][14]. - The performance of various indices from 2013 to 2025 illustrates that while growth stocks can have significant short-term gains, they also experience substantial drawdowns, whereas dividend low-volatility stocks offer steadier returns [12][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by higher volatility and faster rhythms, making high dividend and low volatility strategies particularly valuable [15]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index employs strict rules to ensure sustainable dividends and avoid pitfalls like "dividend traps" [17][18]. - Over the past three to seven years, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing stable returns [19]. Group 3: A+H Market Strategy - The core value of low-volatility dividend stocks lies in their defensive role within a portfolio, providing stability and peace of mind for investors [21]. - The A-share market's low-volatility dividend ETF has proven its defensive value over the past decade, while the Hong Kong counterpart offers new opportunities for investors [21][22]. - A balanced approach combining both defensive and growth-oriented assets is essential for long-term investment success [22][24].

2025 年 09 月 28 日 A 股大牛市：一份全面的体检报告 在伴随本轮 A 股大牛市不断上涨的过程中，市场基本符合我们在三季度的观点 预判。对于大盘指数：我们较早鲜明提出"牛且慢"的慢牛呼吁，并反复强调： 1、站上 3800 点已基本符合我们对于本轮流动性牛市的心理预期，后续持以跟 踪态度，但眼下对于短期大盘指数进一步向上空间已经难以合理预估。 2、本轮 A 股大盘指数向上空间真正打开需市场从流动性牛-基本面牛-新旧动 能转化牛实现"三头牛"兑现转变，这是未来逐步验证的过程。" huangwz1@essence.com.cn 第一，从宏观定位层面，全 A 总市值和流通市值已创历史新高，市场体量远超 历次牛市，但流通市值/GDP 与流通市值/M2 的比值仍在中低区间，居民存款证 券化率不足 60%，明显低于 2015 年接近 100%的极端水平。这说明本轮行情更 多体现为"体量扩张下的理性上涨"。 第二，从交易热度层面，换手率和上涨天数占比均未进入历史高位，心理线指 标虽回到 63%左右，但仍低于 2007 年、2015 年 70%的极端值，显示市场赚钱 效应处于逐步加强的状态。同时，股价创新高股票占比 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the differences between the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index, highlighting their unique roles in China's capital market and technology sector [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Characteristics - The ChiNext Index, established in 2009, has evolved from a platform for internet service companies to a benchmark for various sectors including new energy, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, representing a "versatile expert" in China's new economy [1][2]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index, launched in 2019, focuses on key technology areas such as semiconductors, AI, and biomedicine, embodying a "hardcore pioneer" with a strong emphasis on technological breakthroughs [2]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Investment in the ChiNext Index is driven by the potential for high growth in established sectors, with a focus on revenue and net profit growth, and a current TTM PE ratio of approximately 44 times, indicating a reasonable valuation [3][4]. - For the Sci-Tech 50 Index, investors should prioritize the potential for technology commercialization and the intensity of R&D investment, with a TTM PE ratio of 180 times, but a projected net profit compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Group 3: Index Investment Strategy - Index investing provides a safer approach for ordinary investors, mitigating risks associated with rapid technological changes and individual stock volatility [6][7]. - By diversifying investments across both the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices, investors can benefit from different growth cycles and reduce the impact of sector rotation [7][8]. Group 4: Conclusion - The ChiNext ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF represent complementary investment opportunities, allowing investors to participate in China's technological growth while lowering the barriers to entry [8].

全市场ETF规模已迈入5万亿时代，上证指数突破3800点，不少投资者却陷入新的纠结，既想握住 稳健的基本盘，又怕错过核心资产的收益；既想抓住科技成长的机会，又担心单一布局难以抵御市场波 动。 投资的本质是在风险与收益间找到平衡点，而"均衡打底+成长冲锋"的配置逻辑，或许是破解这份 纠结的科学思路。 中证A500：均衡筑基，守住"基本盘" 在追求更高收益之前，先锚定市场的整体平均收益，就像为投资大厦筑牢地基。中证A500指数 以"传统+新兴"的均衡布局，稳住投资组合的基本盘。 该指数覆盖全部中证一级行业和二级行业，以及93个三级行业中的91个，细分行业覆盖度高，几乎 做到了A股行业全覆盖。前三大行业聚焦工业、信息技术、金融，既锚定了传统经济的"压舱石"，又网 罗了新经济的"潜力军"。 这种布局特性在细分赛道中体现得尤为明显。例如，在新能源汽车产业链，中证A500指数不只包 括整车与电池龙头，更把具备核心技术优势的国产锂电设备厂商、车规级芯片设计企业等纳入成份股， 完整覆盖产业链上下游；在半导体领域，指数覆盖了从设备材料到芯片设计的全链条企业，而非局限于 少数大市值龙头，真正实现了对新兴赛道的"全景式布局"。 如 ...

【 摘要 】华泰柏瑞基金指出，利率敏感性较高的港股科技板块更受到资金青睐，尤其恒生科技 指数。摩根资产管理认为，美联储年内再降息2次的概率提升，美元可能继续走弱。 一、焦点锐评 1．美联储如期降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25% 当地时间9月17日，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%-4.25%，为年内首次 降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息。同时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储 备金利率25个基点至4%。美联储点阵图显示，2025、2026、2027年底和长期联邦基金利率预期中 值分别为3.6%、3.4%、3.1%、3.0%（6月预期为3.9%、3.6%、3.4%、3.0%），2028年底联邦基金 利率预期中值为3.1%。 【解读】中金公司李求索等指出，美联储降息可能缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘，同时带来弱势美 元并伴随全球资金再配置。人民币资产或受益于全球货币体系碎片化和多元化的双重红利，尤其 是海外资金回流及全球再平衡资金导入。此外，全球资金流动性释放对美元汇率产生下拉效果， 进一步促进资金配置转向中国资本市场。 二、权益市场 1.国信证券：风格或阶段性向价值平衡 ...

Investment Summary - The report indicates that all five major benchmark indices tracked last week experienced an overall increase, showcasing a strong market characteristic [2][22]. - The PE percentile for the CSI 300 index since January 1, 2021, is approximately 54%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is around 94%. This suggests that the current PE for the Shanghai Composite is higher than 94.62% of the time since January 1, 2019, indicating it has surpassed the 70% high threshold [2][22][23]. Index Performance Overview - The specific performance of major indices last week includes: CSI 300 index up by 1.38%, Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.65%, ChiNext Index up by 2.10%, and CSI 500 up by 3.38% [8][13][14]. - Among the 31 primary industry indices tracked, 26 sectors saw an increase while 5 sectors declined. The top five performing sectors were electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals, while the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and social services [8][14]. Market Trading Data - The total trading volume last week was 7,176 billion shares, with a trading value of 116,320.75 billion yuan. There were 3,464 stocks that rose and 1,894 that fell [16][17]. - As of the end of last week, 59 stocks reached historical highs, while 4 stocks hit historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 486, 423, and 380 respectively, while the new lows were 46, 30, and 16 respectively [16][18]. Margin Trading Data - Margin trading data indicates that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 636.57 billion yuan, while the weekly margin balance rose by about 8.59 million yuan [16][19].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：常福强 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 240924至250916张幅* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000688.SH | 科创50 | 111.19 | | 2 | 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | 101.70 | | 3 | HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技 | 64.34 | | 4 | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | 61.62 | | 5 | HSI.HI | 恒生指数 | 44.89 | | 6 | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | 40.49 | | 7 | KS11.GI | 韩国综合指数 | 32.58 | | 8 | IXIC. GI | 纳斯达克指数 | 24.26 | | 9 | GDAX.GI | 德国DAX | 23.78 | | 10 | N225.GI | 日经225 | 19.03 | | 11 | SPX GI | 标普500 | 15.53 | | 12 | TWII.TW | 台湾 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of macroeconomic conditions on style allocation, utilizing three mainstream ETFs for monthly rotation trading, which has consistently outperformed benchmarks in backtesting [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts almost certain, and expectations of declining export growth, the financial environment is expected to improve while economic momentum slows, indicating a preference for the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [1] Group 1: Merrill Lynch Clock Method - The traditional Merrill Lynch clock divides the economic cycle into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with the recovery phase favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [2] - A simulated portfolio based on the Merrill Lynch clock from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 379.9%, with an annualized return of 14.4% and an information ratio of 0.44 [2][24] - For Q4, the combination of marginal economic slowdown and low prices is likely to continue, prioritizing the ChiNext Index and CSI 2000 [2] Group 2: Pring Cycle Method - The Pring cycle categorizes the economic cycle into six stages, with the recovery early stage favoring the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index [3] - A simulated portfolio based on the Pring cycle from 2014 to present achieved a cumulative return of 282.4%, with an annualized return of 12.2% and an information ratio of 0.27 [3][43] - In Q4, leading indicators are expected to continue rising, while synchronous indicators may fluctuate, suggesting a preference for the CSI 2000 [3] Group 3: Macro-Friendly Scoring Method - The macro-friendly scoring method combines the Merrill Lynch cycle, inventory cycle, and financial cycle to create a unique indicator that provides clearer insights into the economic cycle state [4] - The report anticipates that the three cycles will resonate positively in the next six months, favoring growth styles [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Given the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the anticipated decline in export growth, the report suggests that the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index have high allocation value [5]