上游（采矿）：资源稀缺，矿企议价能力强，盈利丰厚。 中游（冶炼）：受制于原料紧张和二级镍向一级镍转化的技术瓶颈，高品质产品供应不足，库存多为交 割囤货，实际流通货源有限。 下游（加工与终端）：面临高成本和原料结构性短缺的双重压力，普遍采取低库存策略，部分中小企业 产能收缩。全产业链低库存与结构性矛盾是核心特征。 镍期货市场：美元下跌提振及全球关键矿产储备计划升温，隔夜伦镍收涨2.05%；伦镍最新收盘报 17395，比前一交易日上涨350美元/吨，涨幅为2.05%，成交10074手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍高位运 行，尾盘大幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2603最新收报135770元/吨，上涨3100元/吨，涨幅为2.34%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月3日伦镍库存报285528吨，较前一交易日库存量持平。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2603合约开盘报135400涨2730，9：10分沪镍主力2603 合约报135780涨3110；沪期镍开盘高高走，盘面维持高位运行；宏观面，国内央行逆回购加量续作，流 动性宽松预期升温，利好工业金属市场情绪，带动镍价联动走强；国外：美元震荡偏弱、美股避险资金 分流，叠加美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic expectations and a reduction in geopolitical risks, supported by domestic policy initiatives and external market conditions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the Shanghai nickel futures for the main contract closed at 142,500 CNY/ton, up 1,620 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 145,750 CNY/ton, an increase of 650 CNY from the previous day [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The issuance of 936 billion CNY in special long-term bonds aimed at industrial equipment upgrades and carbon reduction has stimulated demand expectations in the nickel market [2] - A rebound in U.S. stock markets and a decline in the U.S. dollar index have alleviated valuation pressures on non-ferrous metals priced in dollars, contributing to positive market sentiment [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo has stabilized, reducing previous concerns about supply chain disruptions for nickel and cobalt [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is currently characterized by a conflict between strong expectations and weak realities, with concerns over potential reductions in nickel ore export quotas from Indonesia driving prices [3] - Demand is showing a significant divide, with strong demand from the new energy battery sector contrasting with ongoing weakness in traditional stainless steel applications [3] - The current market conditions indicate that price increases are primarily driven by speculative sentiment rather than broad-based consumption, with a notable disparity in trading activity between high-purity nickel and ordinary nickel used in stainless steel [3]