Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is expected to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23-year full latex (non-delivery) decreased on October 13th. The spot price is 14,250, and the basis is -690, showing a bearish signal. The spot price is resistant to decline [4][8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year. The Qingdao area inventory has shown small changes recently [4][14][17] - **Import**: The import quantity has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The basis weakened on October 13th [35]

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some factors leaning towards the bearish side [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show a neutral situation overall, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is trading above the 20 - day line but the 20 - day line is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on June 20. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have not changed much [4][14][17] - **Basis**: The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is 50, showing a neutral situation. The basis turned positive on June 20 [4][35] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by China at the UN aimed to address the impacts of unilateralism and bullying on international relations, with a focus on criticizing the United States' recent tariff policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was conducted in the "Arria Formula" format, allowing for informal discussions among UN member states, with over 80 countries represented, setting a new record for participation [5]. - The meeting highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the US, with both sides exchanging strong criticisms [3][6]. Group 2: China's Position - China's UN representative, Fu Cong, emphasized the need for countries to work together to counter unilateralism and uphold the international order based on international law [3][6]. - Fu criticized the US for its tariff policies, claiming they violate WTO rules and disrupt global economic stability [3][6]. Group 3: US Response - The US representative, Wu Ting, attempted to defend US actions by listing accusations against China, including its trade policies and international security threats, but faced skepticism from most attending countries [3][6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund and the UN Conference on Trade and Development indicate a downward revision of global economic growth forecasts for 2025, reflecting a potential economic downturn affecting all countries [8].