Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The report discusses the historical evolution of world currencies, emphasizing that trade volume is fundamental for a currency to become a global unit of account, as seen with the Spanish dollar and British pound [10][11][12] - It highlights the importance of financial innovation in currency transitions, such as the establishment of the Amsterdam Bank's clearing system that facilitated the rise of the Dutch florin [10][11] - The report identifies three core rules governing currency changes: trade as a foundation, financial innovation as a core driver, and the critical role of debt and military power in maintaining currency credibility [12] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a significant milestone with Grail's release of the Pathfinder 2 data for multi-cancer early detection, showing a positive predictive value of 61.6%, a substantial improvement from previous studies [20] - The media and internet sector is witnessing a surge in AI video generation technology, with notable successes such as the film "Escape from Duckkov" achieving over one million sales in its first week [21][22] - The public utility and environmental sectors report a 4.6% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption, with significant growth in renewable energy sources [26][27] - The white wine industry is entering a potential investment phase, with current low valuations and positive supply-demand dynamics, drawing parallels to previous market cycles [28][29][30] - Ningbo Bank shows a steady improvement in asset quality, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in total assets and a net profit increase of 8.4% in the first three quarters of 2025 [34][35]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月28日 宏观经济专题研究 世界货币变迁史 衰落源于"战争-债务"恶性循环：16 世纪西班牙为征战军费激增，1557-1596 年四次债务违约重创信用，叠加 1588 年"无敌舰队"覆灭后白银输入锐减、 银矿品位下降，银元逐步退出舞台。 荷兰弗罗林：金融创新驱动的霸权（17 世纪） 西班牙银元衰落时，荷兰凭"海上马车夫"贸易优势，将弗罗林打造成新世 界货币，实现金属货币向信用货币跨越。 世界货币更迭，本质是全球经济权力的转移，遵循"贸易奠基、金融创新巩 固、债务与军事失控崩塌"的核心逻辑。我们梳理了其从金属本位到信用本 位的变迁脉络： 核心支撑是 1609 年阿姆斯特丹银行的创新：账户清算体系缩短跨境结算时 间、降低成本；100%准备金制度维持汇率稳定；金融衍生品创新扩大弗罗林 使用范围。 衰落因 1780-1784 年第四次英荷战争：东印度公司巨亏，荷兰向银行巨额借 款致准备金制度失效，弗罗林汇率暴跌、银行挤兑，再叠加产业空心化，1795 年被法郎取代。 英镑：金本位下的霸权与衰落（19-20 世纪） 19 世纪英国借工业革命（生产力爆发）与自由贸易，19 世纪末 80%国际 ...

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver input after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, including a clearing system that reduced cross-border settlement time to 3 days [2] - The Guilder's decline was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the 100% reserve requirement, resulting in a currency devaluation of 12% [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard and the Bank of England's central banking functions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.50%, while retail sales increased by 3.00% year-on-year, and exports rose by 8.30% year-on-year [6] - M2 money supply growth was recorded at 8.37%, indicating liquidity in the economy [6] - Risks include volatility in overseas markets and a slowdown in overseas economic growth [5]