Group 1: Historical Significance of Precious Metals - Precious metals have played a crucial role throughout human history, with silver and gold representing the evolution of monetary systems [1] - Silver experienced a peak period from the 15th to 18th centuries, significantly impacting European wealth and trade, especially after the discovery of silver mines in the Americas [1] - The demand for silver in China increased due to tax reforms, further promoting its global circulation [1] Group 2: Transition to Gold Standard - The UK initiated the gold standard in the 18th century by linking the pound to gold, marking the beginning of the gold era [3] - The decision to adopt the gold standard was influenced by the imbalance between silver and gold, despite efforts to maintain silver's prominence [3] - France's attempt to establish a bimetallic standard under Napoleon III ultimately failed, leading to economic setbacks and the rise of the gold standard in other nations [3] Group 3: The Gold-Silver Debate in the U.S. - The U.S. faced intense debates over its monetary system due to its rich gold and silver resources, with significant opposition from silver miners [5] - The U.S. eventually adopted the gold standard, but debates over gold and silver continued until the late 19th century [5] - Despite the dominance of gold, silver experienced a resurgence in certain regions, but ultimately could not surpass gold's status in the monetary system [5] Group 4: Cultural and Economic Factors - The rise and fall of different monetary systems are closely linked to political, economic, and cultural factors, illustrating the complex interplay between human ingenuity and courage [7]

2025仅剩几天，"贵金属牛"年末蒙眼狂奔。 金银势必成为今年全球大类资产中最大赢家。 周二，现货白银盘中升破70美元/盎司，现货黄金涨至4490.88美元/盎司，双双刷新历史纪录。 今年迄今，黄金已经创下第50个新高，年内累涨超71%；白银则涨势更为凶猛，年内暴涨了140%。 两者有望实现自1979年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。 期货市场，COMEX黄金期货、COMEX白银期货盘中一度涨逾2%，均创历史新高。 二级市场上，港A黄金及贵金属股也集体上攻。 而除了金银之外，铂金、钯金等贵金属齐舞，市场"全金属共振"行情火热。 其中，铂金价格创17年新高，钯金价格触及三年高点。 此外，降息预期的增强为贵金属提供支撑。 稍早前，特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则美国经济将面临衰 退的风险。 这一表态愈发凸显联储内部在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 今年9月开始，美联储的货币政策转向降息，为贵金属牛市注入了"强心剂"。 Pepperstone GroupLtd.策略师Dilin Wu表示，今天的涨势主要由围绕美联储降息预期的早期布局所推动 的，加上年末流动性匮乏。 她指出，就业增长乏力以及 1 ...

消息面上，2026年美联储进一步降息预期升温。美国11月CPI与核心CPI同比及环比增速均出现大幅回 落，其中整体CPI同比降至2.74%，远低于市场预期的3.06%。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"导致数据收集流 程受到干扰，使得这份数据的可靠性受到部分投资者质疑。但这份"过于良好"的数据短期内提振了市场 风险偏好，芝商所美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储将在明年3月降息的概率升至46.2%。 华西证券指出，全球货币与债务担忧持续，美国债务总额已突破38万亿美元，叠加"去美元化"趋势加速 以及地缘冲突紧张，共同推动央行和投资者增持黄金，长期看好黄金价格走势。受益于金价上涨，黄金 资源股盈利预期增强，当前估值处于较低水平，具备配置机会。 截至2025年12月22日 09:54，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨3.38%，成分股白银有色 (601212)上涨8.69%，中国黄金国际(02099)上涨5.87%，西部黄金(601069)上涨5.63%，湖南白银 (002716)，晓程科技(300139)等个股跟涨。 永赢$黄金股ETF(517520)$及其联接基金（A类:020411 / C类:0204 ...

格隆汇12月20日｜Clocktower首席策略师王凯文表示，西方主要经济体的财政扩张与最终债务货币化路 径将持续侵蚀法定货币信用。当前市场对世界回归金本位制度的概率定价依然偏低，黄金的长期牛市基 础依然存在。他认为，从技术突破与市值容量看，白银比黄金具备更大的潜在上涨空间，并指出若全球 债市发生动荡，寻求避险载体的大量资金可能最终将央行推向白银市场。 ...

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver input after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, including a clearing system that reduced cross-border settlement time to 3 days [2] - The Guilder's decline was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the 100% reserve requirement, resulting in a currency devaluation of 12% [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard and the Bank of England's central banking functions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.50%, while retail sales increased by 3.00% year-on-year, and exports rose by 8.30% year-on-year [6] - M2 money supply growth was recorded at 8.37%, indicating liquidity in the economy [6] - Risks include volatility in overseas markets and a slowdown in overseas economic growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-standing debate on the intrinsic value of gold, highlighting its significant price increase over the years, and compares it to Bitcoin in terms of volatility and market perception [1][2]. Group 1: Gold's Value and Market Dynamics - Willem Buiter argues that gold has been in a bubble for 6000 years, with its intrinsic value being minimal, despite its price rising over 50% this year to over $4000 per ounce [1]. - Buiter compares gold to Bitcoin, noting that both assets exhibit high volatility, with Bitcoin experiencing a dramatic price increase and subsequent decline [1][2]. - The demand for gold is partly driven by jewelry consumption, with an estimated 9.7149 million tons used for this purpose, but Buiter believes much of this demand is essentially investment-driven [2]. Group 2: Supply and Cost Considerations - The article mentions that the total global gold supply is projected to be 4975 tons in 2024, raising concerns about the high costs associated with gold mining, storage, and insurance [3]. - Buiter emphasizes that the cost of gold mining is significant, with estimates of total costs around $1500 per ton, questioning the economic rationale behind gold production [3]. - The total estimated gold reserves with economic viability are 5.477 million tons, while resources with questionable profitability amount to 13.211 million tons [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Holdings and Investment Strategy - Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings since 2022, with gold now comprising 20% of their foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the euro's share [4]. - Buiter warns against central banks investing heavily in gold, labeling it as a high-risk asset with negligible intrinsic value, suggesting that they should sell gold to private investors who can bear the risk [4]. - The article concludes that the historical perception of gold as a value storage tool may be misguided, and that the gold standard is unlikely to return [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulatory developments regarding stablecoins in the US, EU, and Hong Kong, highlighting that stablecoins represent a relatively outdated monetary system characterized by rigid reserves, fixed prices, and strict regulatory constraints [2][15]. Group 1: Definition and Purpose of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are not a new concept, with existing examples like USDT and USDC, and they serve as a stable medium for trading digital assets due to the volatility of cryptocurrencies [4][6]. - Governments are motivated to regulate stablecoins to incorporate them into the financial system, embrace technological advancements, and increase the reserve of US dollars and US Treasury bonds, which currently amount to approximately $1.8 trillion in stablecoin holdings [5][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined by several common characteristics: they are pegged to fiat currencies, require 1:1 reserves of fiat or short-term government bonds, are subject to strict regulatory oversight, and cannot pay interest to holders [6][7]. - They are seen as a form of currency with asset properties, primarily used for payment and settlement [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The evolution of currency has seen a shift from physical commodities like gold to more efficient forms of money, such as banknotes, which were initially backed by gold reserves [8][9]. - The introduction of central banks and the end of the gold standard led to the current fiat currency system, where the stability of currency value is maintained through government intervention [10][12]. Group 4: Critique of Stablecoin Regulations - The article argues that the current regulatory framework for stablecoins is flawed, as it imposes strict asset reserve requirements that may not be sustainable in the long term, potentially leading to liquidity issues [20][21]. - Fixed pricing mechanisms in stablecoins are criticized for being unable to adapt to market demands, which could lead to systemic risks similar to those seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [22][23]. Group 5: Future Prospects for Stablecoins - The introduction of stablecoin regulations marks a significant acknowledgment of the legitimacy of private currency issuance, which could lead to increased market participation and liquidity [29][30]. - However, the long-term viability of stablecoins will be constrained by current regulatory frameworks, which may hinder their ability to compete with traditional fiat currencies [31][34].