Core Viewpoints - The evolution of the international monetary system has consistently exhibited a stable "center-periphery" structure, where a few currencies dominate while the majority remain peripheral [2][3][4] - The stability of the monetary order is rooted in the nature of money as a "high-order belief," where individuals accept currency based on mutual trust in its value and acceptance by others [2][28] - The transition from one dominant currency to another is rare and often requires a combination of economic shifts and institutional reforms to facilitate the emergence of a new center [3][4] Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The historical perspective shows that the monetary order has maintained internal stability, with dominant currencies typically lasting one to two centuries [5][6] - The shift from the Spanish dollar to the Dutch guilder marked a transition from metal-based currency to credit-based systems, emphasizing the importance of financial innovation and institutional credibility [9][11] - The establishment of the classical gold standard in the 19th century created a more structured international monetary order, driven by the need for exchange rate stability and transaction efficiency [12][13] The Role of Trust and Institutional Frameworks - The essence of money is a social contract based on trust, where its value is derived from the issuer's commitment to honor debts [27][28] - Sovereign currencies differ from commodity or cryptocurrency due to state backing and legal tender status, ensuring their acceptance and circulation [28][29] - The natural monopoly of money arises from network effects, where increased usage enhances liquidity and reduces transaction costs, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle [29][30] Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current dollar-centric system is facing challenges as global trade and capital flows diversify, with potential for the renminbi to rise as a reserve currency through reforms and market-driven mechanisms [5][26] - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with emerging economies seeking greater independence in currency management and exchange rate flexibility [25][26] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's safety as an asset, leading to increased diversification in the global monetary landscape [26][39]

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver imports after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, which established a clearing system that reduced transaction costs by 50% [2] - The decline of the Guilder was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the banking system [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard [3] Group 3: Economic and Military Factors - The rise and fall of currencies are closely linked to trade volume, financial innovations, and the management of debt and military expenditures [4] - The British pound's decline was accelerated by the financial burdens of World War I and World War II, leading to significant devaluations in 1949 (30.5%) and 1967 (14.3%) [3] - The transition from the pound to the dollar as the dominant currency was facilitated by the establishment of the Federal Reserve and the growth of the U.S. economy post-World War II [3]

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver input after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, including a clearing system that reduced cross-border settlement time to 3 days [2] - The Guilder's decline was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the 100% reserve requirement, resulting in a currency devaluation of 12% [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard and the Bank of England's central banking functions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.50%, while retail sales increased by 3.00% year-on-year, and exports rose by 8.30% year-on-year [6] - M2 money supply growth was recorded at 8.37%, indicating liquidity in the economy [6] - Risks include volatility in overseas markets and a slowdown in overseas economic growth [5]