丙烯日报 | 2025-12-18 下游跟进偏弱，价格延续底部震荡 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置近期负荷提满，PDH亏损检修现象短期仍不明显，丙烯开工整体延续高位，联泓MTO新 产能存释放预期，丙烯商品外卖量或继续增加，供应宽松格局不变，关注未来装置开工变化；需求端，下游整体 开工走弱，PP与丙烯价差收窄，利润倒挂严重使得部分主力粉料装置降负荷运行或停车，主力下游PP粉开工环比 继续回落，部分一体化PP装置原料丙烯存外卖情况；环氧丙烷利润尚可，下游阶段性补库为主；后期看下游成本 压力仍制约需求回升，丙烯价格下跌亦抑制下游采购积极性，丙烯需求支撑延续偏弱。成本端国际油价大幅走弱 且中长期仍存供应过剩压力，外盘丙烷价格前期走势偏强后有所回调，近期成本端支撑亦减弱。 策略 单边：观望，供需持续宽松、下游支撑减弱，短期偏弱震荡为主，等待边际装置检修。 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5744元/吨（+0），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6015元/吨（-40）， 丙烯华东基差231元/吨（+0），丙烯华北基差78元/吨（-24）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR- ...

Core Insights - The main contract price for propylene closed at 6420 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY from the previous day, while spot prices in East China and North China showed slight declines [1] - Overall operating rate for propylene decreased to 73%, down by 2% [1] - Downstream production rates and profits varied, with notable decreases in PP powder and phenol ketone, while propylene acid saw the largest increase in operating rate [1] Supply Analysis - Propylene supply is tightening due to reduced operating rates and maintenance at several facilities, including Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng [1] - The restart plans for Wanhua and Hebei Haiwei are expected to alleviate the tight supply situation in the near future [1] - Current inventory stands at 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is weakening as propylene prices remain high, leading to reduced profitability in several sectors [1] - The operating rate for PP powder has dropped significantly, while the production of butanol and propylene acid has seen slight increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm has diminished, potentially limiting the upward price movement of propylene [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ continues to maintain increased production, but geopolitical tensions are causing fluctuations in oil prices [1] - External propane prices are on the rise, impacting overall cost structures [1] Strategic Recommendations - A neutral stance is suggested for single positions, while monitoring the main PDH restart for potential high-level hedging opportunities [1] - No specific strategies are recommended for cross-commodity trading at this time [1]