Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream follow - up is weak, and the price continues to fluctuate at the bottom. The supply is in a loose pattern, the demand support is weak, and the cost - side support has also weakened. The short - term is mainly in a weak shock, and it is advisable to wait for marginal device maintenance [1][2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,744 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price of propylene in East China is 5,975 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6,015 yuan/ton (- 40), the basis of propylene in East China is 231 yuan/ton (+0), and the basis of propylene in North China is 78 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%). The production profit and capacity utilization rate of different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking) are also involved in relevant figures [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 341 yuan/ton (+5) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (-0.89%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+40); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), production profit is 82 yuan/ton (+0); n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is 109 yuan/ton (-25); octanol capacity utilization rate is 77% (+1%), production profit is 497 yuan/ton (+36); acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 80% (+2%), production profit is 358 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), production profit is - 684 yuan/ton (+58); phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 80% (-3%), production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 45,960 tons (-1,930) [1]

Core Insights - The main contract price for propylene closed at 6420 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY from the previous day, while spot prices in East China and North China showed slight declines [1] - Overall operating rate for propylene decreased to 73%, down by 2% [1] - Downstream production rates and profits varied, with notable decreases in PP powder and phenol ketone, while propylene acid saw the largest increase in operating rate [1] Supply Analysis - Propylene supply is tightening due to reduced operating rates and maintenance at several facilities, including Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng [1] - The restart plans for Wanhua and Hebei Haiwei are expected to alleviate the tight supply situation in the near future [1] - Current inventory stands at 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is weakening as propylene prices remain high, leading to reduced profitability in several sectors [1] - The operating rate for PP powder has dropped significantly, while the production of butanol and propylene acid has seen slight increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm has diminished, potentially limiting the upward price movement of propylene [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ continues to maintain increased production, but geopolitical tensions are causing fluctuations in oil prices [1] - External propane prices are on the rise, impacting overall cost structures [1] Strategic Recommendations - A neutral stance is suggested for single positions, while monitoring the main PDH restart for potential high-level hedging opportunities [1] - No specific strategies are recommended for cross-commodity trading at this time [1]