业绩超预期因子
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蜂巢基金吴穹:以“超预期”因子为核心发掘成长与新兴产业机会
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-28 15:12
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy of Wu Qiong from Hive Fund, focusing on identifying high-growth sectors and stocks that can deliver "superior-than-expected" performance, particularly in emerging industries like AI and robotics [3][4][9]. Investment Framework - Wu Qiong's investment framework revolves around the "superior-than-expected" factor, where he identifies sectors with high growth potential and selects stocks that are likely to outperform expectations [3][7]. - A quantitative model is utilized to enhance efficiency and precision in stock selection, allowing for a clearer investment strategy [8]. Focus on Emerging Industries - The article highlights Wu Qiong's focus on emerging industries, particularly AI computing power, humanoid robots, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as having significant long-term growth potential [4][10]. - The AI industry, especially the upstream computing power segment, is identified as having strong performance potential, with expectations of continued growth through 2030 [9]. Market Dynamics and Adaptability - Wu Qiong stresses the importance of continuous learning and dynamic adjustment in investment strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [5]. - The integration of macroeconomic analysis with industry and company-specific research is emphasized to enhance decision-making robustness [5]. Growth Stock Performance - Historical data suggests that growth stocks tend to perform exceptionally well during the early stages of industry development, driven by high growth expectations and significant earnings elasticity [6][9]. AI Applications and Market Potential - AI applications are categorized into four types, with a focus on humanoid robots and integrated hardware solutions, which are expected to catalyze market growth once commercial viability is achieved [10]. - The article notes that while AI applications may take longer to realize their potential, they possess significant elasticity and growth opportunities once foundational infrastructure is established [9][10].
蜂巢基金吴穹: 围绕AI科技主线 挖掘更具性价比方向
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-11 22:28
Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments, particularly in AI hardware sectors like optical modules and optical communications, leading to a rapid increase in overall valuation levels [1] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the sustainability of the AI trend, with some leading companies showing strong performance but facing potential limitations on future growth due to prior price increases [1][4] - The focus is on identifying "high-cut low" opportunities within the AI technology sector, particularly in areas such as PCB equipment and liquid cooling, which may have greater upside potential [1][4] Group 2 - The performance of growth stocks is significantly influenced by the factor of exceeding earnings expectations, with many stocks demonstrating sustained excess returns when they outperform market expectations [2] - The investment strategy involves targeting growth sectors with high potential for exceeding earnings expectations, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, reliable management, and favorable valuations [2] - The investment approach includes dynamic assessment of price-performance ratios and continuous rotation of higher value stocks within the portfolio [2] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of a company's growth potential and quality, with a focus on sectors such as computing power and robotics within the AI investment theme [3] - Quantitative models are utilized to monitor holdings and identify higher value investment opportunities while managing associated risks [3] Group 4 - The AI industry chain is categorized into upstream (computing power), midstream (data and large models), and downstream (applications), with specific focus on sectors that have both earnings expectation potential and reasonable valuations [4] - Companies in the computing power sector are experiencing strong performance, but their future growth potential may be limited due to prior price increases, prompting a search for opportunities in PCB equipment and liquid cooling [4] - The robotics sector is viewed as a high-value investment direction, particularly for companies that can participate in the Tesla supply chain and related domestic industries [4] Group 5 - AI applications are a major investment focus, with companies that can turn "impossible into possible" through AI technology, such as humanoid robots and smart driving, being highlighted as valuable assets [5] - Companies that deepen their "moat" by controlling channel access, such as certain internet platforms, are also seen as capable of creating long-term value in the AI application space [5]
围绕AI科技主线 挖掘更具性价比方向
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-11 20:17
"每一只股票,不管是市场视线聚焦的明星股,还是看起来'无人关注'的边缘品种,其实都有一定群体 在跟踪研究,找寻投资机会。所以,我们看大部分股票的走势,事后都能找到一定的原因,这说明市场 的有效性。与此同时,市场上的业绩超预期因子持续有效,即很多业绩超预期的股票能够相对板块走出 持续性的超额行情。"吴穹说。 ● 本报记者 王鹤静 近期,A股市场掀起人工智能(AI)投资热潮。然而,龙头公司短期涨势较快,以光模块、光通信等为 代表的AI硬件端整体估值水平迅速提升,市场对于后续AI行情可持续性出现了一定分歧。 蜂巢先进制造的基金经理吴穹日前接受了中国证券报记者的专访。吴穹表示,AI科技主线中,部分算 力龙头公司业绩较好,市场不断上调预期,但由于前期涨幅较多,未来上涨空间可能会被压缩。可以在 AI科技主线中进一步挖掘"高切低"的机会,PCB设备、液冷等领域未来上涨空间可能会更大。 重视业绩超预期因子作用 对于成长股投资,吴穹借助量化手段研究发现,国内市场表现较为突出的是业绩超预期因子。 因此,吴穹将目光投向了业绩超预期可能性更大的成长板块,寻找其中成长空间大、公司有禀赋、管理 层可靠且能够兑现业绩的核心品种,然后再结合 ...